An Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena is the marquee matchup of the night Wednesday, and the Lightning are a short home favorite in the NHL odds.
Tampa Bay is rolling along a 6-0-1 stretch and returns home following a five-game road trip that wrapped up with a 3-2 overtime win against the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday. Boston, on the other hand, topped the Florida Panthers 4-3 on Tuesday and will face the Bolts in the second leg of a back-to-back road set. This is also the third stop of a six-game road trip for the Bruins.
Here are our free NHL picks and NHL player props for the Bruins vs. Lightning bout on Wednesday, March 27.
Bruins vs Lightning odds
Bruins vs Lightning predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning center Braydon Point and defenseman Victor Hedman were back at Wednesday’s morning skate after missing Sunday’s game with lower-body injuries. It’s good news for the Bolts, and Tampa Bay projects to have its full lineup jumping the boards against the Boston Bruins tonight.
Boston went toe-to-toe with the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, and the two teams combined for 91 hits and 36 penalty minutes. The game had a postseason feel, which sets the Bruins up for a potential letdown spot against the rested Lightning.
While the final shot totals were tied at 21 apiece, Florida had 22 more attempts and won the five-on-five possession battle with a 61.1 Corsi For percentage. Boston is now down to a 31st-ranked 43.7 CF% through nine road games since the All-Star break.
Add Boston sporting the second-highest PDO (102.9) at 5-on-5, and the Bruins continuing to tick the wins column despite the ice often being tilted against them is impressive. A lot of credit rightfully goes to the goaltending duo and head coach Jim Montgomery, but how long will the near league-best puck luck continue for Boston?
Tampa Bay has its own 5-on-5 shortcomings, including a minus-21 goal differential, and I could see the Lightning lacking some zap out of the gate Wednesday after returning east from the noted five-game road trip.
As a result, I’m targeting Bolts forward Steven Stamkos in the shots market. He’s down to a 2.5 total after being at the 3.5 benchmark against Anaheim on Sunday, and we’re landing a nice edge at DraftKings.
Tampa Bay has the benefit of last change, and Stamkos is second in shots (10.07) and attempts (19.09) per 60 minutes for the Lightning.
My best bet: Steven Stamkos Over 2.5 shots (-130 at DraftKings)
Bruins vs Lightning same-game parlay
Steven Stamkos Over 2.5 shots
Under 6
Lightning moneyline
There is potential for both teams to be sluggish to start Wednesday. It’s a short turnaround for Boston, and Tampa Bay has only had two days to adjust to the time change and recharge from its own road trip.
Additionally, I expect the Bruins to prioritize playing sound defense. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in the league in goals per game and boasts a league-best 29.0 power-play percentage, so the Bruins won’t have much room for error if they cheat defensively, especially on the wrong end of a back-to-back.
Tampa Bay starter Andrei Vasilevskiy has won six of his past eight starts with an uncharacteristically poor .904 SV% and 2.74 GAA, so this is a ripe matchup to tidy up his game and hit the reset button ahead of the playoffs.
I like the home team with rest, especially with Boston overachieving at 5-on-5.
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Bruins vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There was a slight adjustment to the Tampa Bay side of the moneyline following news that both Point and Hedman skated Wednesday morning.
- Tampa Bay has won 11 of its past 16 at Amalie Arena, so Boston is being given a lot of respect given the tough schedule spot.
- There isn’t a consensus total for this game, with both 6.0 and 5.5 numbers available. The higher vigs are on the Over 5.5 and Under 6.0 totals.
Bruins vs Lightning betting trend to know
The total has gone Under in nine of the past 13 games between Boston and Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Lightning.
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Bruins vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 27, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Bruins vs Lightning latest injuries
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