Nathan MacKinnon is an extremely high-volume shooter, especially on home soil. He's only played two games in Colorado this season, but combined to produce 12 shots on 17 attempts.
Set for a mouthwatering home date against a high-paced Toronto Maple Leafs team, MacKinnon's shot total headlines my NHL predictions for tonight.
Let's break down three of my favorite NHL picks for Saturday, Oct. 10.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Chabot Over 0.5 points |
55% |
 MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal |
57% |
| Necas Over 0.5 assists |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Thomas Chabot Over 0.5 points
I like Thomas Chabot for a point to 58%.
The new captain of the Ottawa Senators is playing a monumental role without Jake Sanderson in the lineup, averaging nearly 27 minutes per game while also taking over the reins on the No. 1 power play unit.
Chabot has predictably been on the ice for more expected goals than anybody else on Ottawa’s roster.
He has a great matchup against the Nashville Predators, who rank 30th in shot suppression at both 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill.
Ottawa should generate plenty of looks, and Chabot’s sky-high usage means he’ll be on the ice and involved in plenty of them.
- Matchup: Predators vs. Senators
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, Ontario
- TV: SN1, ESPN+
Pick #2: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal
I’d back Nathan MacKinnon for 4+ shots on goal to 62%.
The Toronto Maple Leafs (third) and Colorado Avalanche (sixth) both slot near the top of the league in 5-on-5 pace, which should create a high-event environment for MacKinnon to pile up the shots.
The matchup is very strong, with the Maple Leafs ranking 26th in shot suppression out of the gate.
MacKinnon went nuclear in similar spots a season ago. He cleared 3.5 shots in 90% of his home games against Bottom-12 shot suppression teams, averaging a whopping 5.8 shots on target per contest.
The Avalanche are rested, control the matchups, and don’t play again until Tuesday. It’ll be full steam ahead for MacKinnon.
- Matchup: Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colo.
- TV: SN, NHL Network
Pick #3: Martin Necas Over 0.5 assists
I'm going to double-dip on the Avalanche and play Martin Necas for an assist to 57%.
All of the favorable aspects in this matchup for MacKinnon also ring true for his top running mate.
The Leafs play at a high pace and give up a lot of quality looks across all game states. They sit 21st in expected goals allowed at 5-on-5 and 26th while killing penalties.
Necas skates with MacKinnon at evens and on the top power play unit, so he will greatly benefit from Toronto’s defensive struggles.
It’s also worth noting the Avalanche are healthy 67% favorites. Necas assisted in eight of the last nine Colorado victories, recording 13 along the way.
- Top picks: 6-12, -7.95 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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