We're getting two teams with offensive firepower tonight, so I'll be leaning toward the Over in my Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche prediction. We swept our plays on Thursday - let's do it all again.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 36% win probability at Novig against the Colorado Avalanche, but with both teams near the top of the league in expected goals, I'm investing in the Over at 51%.
Tap into my NHL picks for Saturday, Oct. 10, and let's build on a strong start to the season.
TOP PICK
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche prediction: Over 6.5
Another Toronto Maple Leafs game, another Over I absolutely love at this price. The Colorado Avalanche lead the league in goals per 60, own the seventh-best power-play unit (31%), and might just have the best top-six in the game.
Meanwhile, the Leafs are 30th in high-danger scoring chances against, meaning we'll likely see a lot of opportunities tonight.
Let's see some goals early and often - I'd play this to 55%.
COVERS INTEL: The Leafs' defense can't seem to get out of its own way, owning the fourth-worst expected goals against mark in hockey - worse than the Calgary Flames. However, Toronto's power play is still lethal; their 3.96 expected goals for on the man advantage is fifth in the league. No matter which way you want to attack this game, the numbers point toward goals.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche combo
We've already established why goals should come early and often on Saturday night, but Kirill Marchenko also stands out as a strong volume-based play.
Skating alongside Auston Matthews while logging significant minutes on Toronto's lethal top power-play unit should give the playmaking forward plenty of opportunities to find the scoresheet.
With goals expected in bunches, I like Marchenko's chances of picking up at least one helper.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche combo
- Over 6.5 goals
- Kirill Marchenko 1+ assists
- Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche player prop: Kirill Marchenko 1+ assists
With the way this matchup is shaping up, Marchenko should have plenty of opportunities to get involved offensively against the Avalanche. Skating with Matthews gives Marchenko a pair of capable finishers to work with, while his role on Toronto's dangerous top power-play unit only adds to his appeal. He's logged one assist in back-to-back games and has been a pass-first winger early in the season.
Colorado's high-octane offense should push the pace, giving Marchenko plenty of chances to generate scoring opportunities. In a game where I'm expecting goals in bunches, I'll gladly back the playmaking winger to pick up at least one assist.
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche goal scorer: William Nylander
The last time William Nylander was held without a point (as he was on Thursday), he came back with four in two games - I'm expecting much of the same tonight in a contest that should see a ton of goals.
Nylander is 13th in the NHL in expected goals for, and with him controlling puck possession on the top power-play unit, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt to bury one.
- Top picks: 3-2, +0.92 units
- Combos: 3-2, +1.21 units
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche odds
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- Moneyline: Maple Leafs 36% | Avalanche 66%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (51%) | Under 6.5 (51%)
- Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (57%) | Avalanche -1.5 (44%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche trend
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche are 5-5 in their last 10 head-to-head matchups. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Avalanche
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche latest injuries
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