It’s a classic NFC North showdown under the Monday night lights as J.J. McCarthy makes his NFL debut — and he’s doing it as a slight road favorite at Soldier Field. The new-look Chicago Bears, led by a fresh coaching staff, host a Minnesota Vikings team that now belongs to McCarthy with Sam Darnold out of the picture.
Find out why my Vikings vs. Bears predictions and NFL picks put trust in JJ McCarthy on Monday, September 8.
Vikings vs Bears prediction
Vikings vs Bears Best bet: J.J. McCarthy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
Pricing rookies is never easy, but J.J. McCarthy has had a full year to acclimate and now steps into a Kevin O’Connell offense that helped Sam Darnold generate MVP buzz late last season. McCarthy won’t have Jordan Addison (suspended), but with Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jalen Nailor around him, the supporting cast is strong. Jefferson alone could cash this TD prop, especially with the Vikings ranking third in red-zone pass rate in neutral game scripts, per THE BLITZ.
Minnesota scored 30 points in both games against the Chicago Bears last season, racking up 781 total yards at 5.74 yards per play. The move from Darnold to McCarthy shouldn't cause a major drop-off, and this matchup projects as the third-fastest-paced game of Week 1 (131.4 offensive plays). More pace means more opportunities.
Meanwhile, the Bears are adjusting to a completely new regime — head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator — which could lead to early growing pains on both sides of the ball. That’s a Week 1 edge for Minnesota.
Ultimately, this comes down to value. According to THE BLITZ, only six QBs are projected to throw more TDs than McCarthy in Week 1: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson.
Vikings vs Bears same-game parlay
Both QBs can rack up the yards Monday night, and Jefferson will be the focal point even more with no Addison.
Hockenson will be the safety net for McCarthy in his first start, and for a team that passes a lot in the red zone, the tight end could easily be his preferred target.
I know there is no McCarty Over 1.5 pass TDs in this SGP, but that market seems to water down the odds. If I added the McCarthy Over 1.5 TDs instead of Hockenson, this SGP would be +440.
Vikings vs Bears 3-leg SGP
- Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 receiving yards
- DJ Moore Over 58.5 receiving yards
- T.J. Hockenson to score a TD
Our big-ticket SGP: Love the yards and touchdowns
Let's beef up the other SGP by adding the Chicago first-round rookie to the TD party. He's a 6-foot-6 red-zone monster, and Ben Johnson loves getting his athletic TEs involved.
Colston Loveland might not have a huge role in Week 1, but he could have an impact near the goal line vs. a heavy-blitzing Minnesota defense.
Vikings vs Bears 4-leg SGP
- Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 receiving yards
- DJ Moore Over 58.5 receiving yards
- T.J. Hockenson to score a TD
- Colston Loveland to score a TD
Vikings vs Bears odds
- Spread: Vikings -1.5 | Bears +1.5
- Moneyline: Vikings -120 | Bears +100
- Over/Under: Over 44 | Under 44
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Vikings vs Bears trend to know
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Bears.
How to watch Vikings vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, September 8, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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