The Indianapolis Colts are caught in a tight fight atop the AFC South and a win over the visiting Houston Texans in NFL Week 15 would go a long way in securing the division crown.
The Colts are 7-point NFL betting favorites Sunday, tied with the Tennessee Titans at 9-4 in the standings. Indianapolis defeated Houston just two weeks ago, edging their rival 26-20 as 3.5-point road chalk.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Texans vs. Colts on December 20.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other matchups with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Texans: Brandon Dunn NT (Out), David Johnson RB (Questionable), Duke Johnson RB (Out), Phillip Gaines CB (Out).
Colts: None to report.
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Colts are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Texans. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Colts.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Colts have been among the most solid defensive units in the NFL this season and are finally getting the production from their offense to complement that stingy stop unit. Indianapolis has scored an average of almost 33 points per game over its last five outings, going 4-1 SU and ATS in that span.
One of those victories was a 26-20 win in Houston in which the offense presented solid balance behind the re-emergence of star WR T.Y. Hilton and a coming out for rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. Those two weapons, along with improving play from veteran QB Philip Rivers, have the Colts climbing the AFC standings.
Hilton and Rivers are on the same page after a slow start to the season, with the speedy wideout totaling 277 yards on 17 catches with four touchdowns the past three games. On the ground, Taylor is blasting through the rookie wall in his last three efforts, with 331 yards rushing on 55 attempts – more than six yards per carry – including 150 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in Week 14’s 44-27 road win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Texans defense just allowed 36 points to the Chicago Bears – a season-high for one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Houston ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, most notably getting chewed up by opposing rushing attacks. The Colts hung 109 yards rushing on the Texans in Week 13 and that helped them control pace and time, eating up over 33:30 in possession.
The Texans have plenty of questions to answer when it comes to their defense this offseason. Sunday’s embarrassing defeat to Chicago is the final straw for this team, which will be playing in its second straight road game and third away tilt in the past four weeks.
Get the Colts at the touchdown now, as this spread is starting to trend upward, with the juice jumping up to -115 and some books already dealing Indy -7.5.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis -7 (-115)
Over/Under Pick
These teams stayed Under the 50-point total back in Week 13 and have stayed Under the number in four of their last five meetings. However, only one of those games had Rivers under center.
The former Charger got off to a slow start in Indianapolis but has been slinging the rock in the second half of the schedule, with a QB rating of 101.5 since Week 9, as well as 16 touchdowns to only four interceptions in that stretch.
With Hilton clicking and Taylor keeping opposing pass rushes honest, the Colts have played Over in four of their last five outings. Houston’s stop unit allows 28.6 points per road game – fifth-most in the league – and is 5-2 Over/Under as a visitor this season.
Texans QB Deshaun Watson continues to work his magic, despite depleted skill positions around him. Watson is a one-man playbook, with 1,222 yards passing and 136 yards rushing in the past four games, posting seven passing TDs (only one INT) along with two rushing scores. He’ll do his best to chip in on the Over this Sunday.
PREDICTION: Over 52.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
The Colts have been searching for a true featured back for years now, not having a reliable rushing option since Joseph Addai back in the mid-2000’s. Taylor could be the long-lost answer to that roster gap.
The Wisconsin standout has found his legs in the past three games and is coming off a career day versus the Raiders’ rotten rushing defense. He now runs into one of the few stop units even worse at slowing down the ground game, as Houston gives up five yards per carry and has allowed opposing RBs to find the end zone 16 times – tied for most in the NFL.
The Texans have allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns on 70 percent of their trips inside the red zone while the Colts’ new-found scoring touch has crossed the goal line in almost 64 percent of their series inside the 20-yard line the past three games. That’s a big contrast from their red-zone TD percentage of just 55.88 in the first 10 contests of the year.
As Taylor showed on Sunday, he’s a threat to score by home-run play or goal-line carry.
PREDICTION: Jonathan Taylor touchdown scorer (-182)
Texans vs Colts Betting Card
- Indianapolis -7 (-115)
- Over 52.5 (-110)
- Jonathan Taylor touchdown scorer (-182)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Texans vs. Colts picks, you could win $46.47 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
