There are four teams this week currently sitting as double-digit NFL betting favorites. That includes the Tennessee Titans, who are hosting the crumbling Detroit Lions in Week 15.
NFL odds opened the Titans at -8.5 but a litany of Lions injuries in another lost season, coupled with the Titans still fighting for a division title, have increased this to an 11-point spread, with the total sitting at 51.5 points.
Here are our best NFL free picks and predictions for the Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans on Sunday, December 20, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans Betting Preview
Weather
It's going to be a dreary day in the Music City. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s, with slight 5 mph winds. The sky will be overcast, but a very slight (6 percent) chance of rain. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Lions: Kenny Golladay WR (Out), Frank Ragnow C (Out), Da'Shawn Hand DE (Out), Jeff Okudah CB (Out), Tyrell Crosby OL (Out).
Titans: Kenny Vaccaro S (Out), Geoff Swaim TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Titans.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
After an ugly loss to Cleveland two weeks ago, the Titans rebounded in a big way last week, stomping lowly Jacksonville 31-10. While all the MVP hype is going to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, there's a non-QB that's also making a case: Tennessee's King Henry.
Titans stud RB Derrick Henry has simply trucked any and all opposition this season, leading the NFL with 1,532 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. The scariest part is that he normally does his best work late in the season, which seems to be the case again. He's piled up 133, 178 and 215 yards in three of his last four games, which are also three of his four highest rushing totals this season—and were games in which the Titans emerged victorious.
Up next for Henry to terrorize are the Detroit Lions, a team that has the seventh-worst DVOA rush defense (per Football Outsiders) and surrenders the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
Detroit has posted back-to-back ATS wins, coming from behind to beat the Bears in Week 13 and covering the 9.5-point spread in a loss to Green Bay last week. Quarterback Matthew Stafford fought through a thumb injury to deliver some impressive performances but he left last week's game with a rib injury, which could keep him out Sunday. He did not practice this week and if he can play, he will be severely limited. If he can't play, Chase Daniel would step in under center for an offense that was literally leaning on Stafford to carry them—Detroit has failed to top 100 yards rushing in three of its last four games.
Henry is going to run wild against the Lions, punishing their defense for four quarters, while Detroit's best hope of hanging around is either a QB with bad ribs or a backup QB that's just bad. The Titans easily dispatched Jacksonville last week as big favorites...and they'll do the same again to Detroit in Week 15.
PREDICTION: Titans -11 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Detroit's stop unit hasn't really done much stopping this season as, in addition to its terrible run defense, the Lions also have the 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense. That's resulted in them giving up the fourth-most points per game this season (29.9), including 41, 30 and 31 points over their last three games.
But with the total set at 51.5, I think this is just a little too high. The Titans should drop at least 30 points on the Lions this Sunday, but can Detroit generate enough offense to get this over the total?
With a "healthy" Stafford (or at least a Stafford without the rib AND thumb injuries) I could have been on board with that. But with the reality being that it's a mangled Stafford or Daniel under center, I don't see Detroit performing much better than Jacksonville last week, when the Jags mustered just 10 points.
The Under is 11-4 in Detroit's last 15 December games, as Stafford is so beat up – and the team has little to play for – that mustering offense is difficult. It's the same story this year, so I don't see this total going over the number.
PREDICTION: Under 51.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
I've been singing the praises of how Henry will ravage the carcass of Detroit's defense, but finding betting value in his rushing total or anytime touchdown props is difficult...
...unless we combine them together!
Henry is the lifeblood of this offense, so let's parlay him topping his rushing total AND finding the end zone against a team that gives up 132.8 rushing yards per game and has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this year (21).
PREDICTION: Derrick Henry Over 113.5 rushing yards + anytime touchdown (+144)
Lions vs Titans Betting Card
- Titans -11 (-110)
- Under 51.5 (-110)
- Derrick Henry Over 113.5 rushing yards + anytime touchdown (+144)
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