No player will have a bigger impact on the Super Bowl LVII odds than Patrick Mahomes. Full stop.
By now, everyone and their grandmothers knows what Mahomes is capable of on the field, and he's arguably the most electrifying quarterback in football. The Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback is looking to add to his already sparkling resume with a second Super Bowl title.
But a quarterback with Mahomes’ prominence in the biggest game of the year means there are likely more Super Bowl LVII player props tied to him than anyone else on the board.
So, finding my best Patrick Mahomes prop is going to require a little more digging. Luckily that’s what I’m here for. Check out my Super Bowl picks for Mahomes below.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 57 prop pick and same-game parlay
- Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts (-120)
- Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts, 250+ pass yards, 2+ touchdown passes (+175)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 57 best bet
Many of the player prop markets tied to Patrick Mahomes aren't shockingly inflated heading into Super Bowl LVII.
His touchdown Over/Under is set at 1.5. He's regularly been eclipsing that number recently, so the Over is juiced as high as -225 at some sportsbooks. We’ve seen his passing yards prop go from 287.5 to 291.5, and it’s now as high as 295.5 as of Feb. 6. And Mahomes’ completed passes sit at 25.5. He’s only gone Over that number eight times across his 19 games played in 2022-23.
But Mahomes’ pass-attempts prop hasn’t been inflated yet. That’s on the board at 38.5. He's averaging a touch under 38 pass attempts per game in 2022-23. The Over has hit on 38.5 pass attempts nine times, including when he tossed the ball 43 times during the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
And this is when we reach the overarching theme of the game. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows his best shot at winning his second Super Bowl title is relying on the arm of his All-World quarterback. And Reid has proven he's comfortable doing that.
Mahomes is averaging 39.3 pass attempts over his last nine playoff games. He’s gone Over 38.5 throws in five of his previous six playoff appearances. And he’s attempted 42 and 49 pass attempts in his last two Super Bowls.
That brings us to the matchup with the Eagles. Much like the 2019 San Francisco 49ers and the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia features a very strong defensive front seven. But so did the Bengals heading into this season’s AFC Championship Game. Mahomes was able to pick them apart while easily going Over 38.5 pass attempts, just as he did against the 49ers and Buccaneers.
The Eagles' front seven deserves all the praise it gets, but Philly hasn't faced too many of the NFL’s top passing attacks. Additionally, the front seven's ability to consistently get to the quarterback allows the Eagles' secondary to play an aggressive style. But a smart and accurate quarterback like Mahomes should be able to take advantage of that approach.
Finally, the total of 50.5 for this game indicates there's a real possibility of a shootout, which makes perfect sense with the two offenses ranked first and third in DVOA. That game script will lead to Mahomes airing it out, especially if the Chiefs are down. There are just a lot of avenues for Mahomes to get over this number in Super Bowl LVII.
Prop: Mahomes Over 38.5 pass attempts (-110-120 at bet365)
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 57 SGP
Now, +175 may not seem like the sexiest same-game parlay for the Super Bowl. But it certainly feels like there's a great chance of this bet hitting. And isn't that what this is all about?
So if we’re on Mahomes’ passing attempts, it just makes sense that some yards and touchdowns go along with it. The Eagles boast solid numbers against the pass. But they didn’t face one great passing team, and the only above-average ones were the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mahomes has cleared 250 passing yards in 13 of his 19 games played in 2022-23, and in all but one of his 13 career playoff starts. And he’s also thrown two-plus touchdown passes in 13 games this campaign, and in six of his last seven contests.
This feels like the most rock-solid Super Bowl same-game parlay.
Same-game parlay: +175 at bet365