Wednesday's World Cup Round of 32 slate features one of the toughest knockout matches to handicap, with Belgium entering as the -162 favorites to advance despite facing a dangerous Senegal side that's better than its underdog price suggests.
I'm not convinced this one gets settled in 90 minutes. Below, I'll explain why the draw is my favorite bet and why a tense, low-scoring battle feels like the most likely script.
Read on for my Belgium vs. Senegal predictions and World Cup picks for Wednesday, July 1, with kickoff scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET in Houston.
Belgium vs Senegal predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win Belgium vs Senegal: Draw (+218)
Belgium are the clear favorites, but I see no reason why they deserve to be such a short price (+127) vs. tough opponents Senegal (+257).
Manager Rudi Garcia and his ‘Red Diamonds’ secured their place in the knockout phase by thrashing New Zealand 5-1 in their final group fixture. That emphatic victory vs limited opposition has little relevance, though. Belgium’s labored draws vs. Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) in their opening two group fixtures are far more instructive about how this Round of 32 fixture might unfold.
Belgium were no better than Egypt on June 15, then lacked the guile and imagination to unlock the well-organised Iran defense six days later. The lesson of those two matches was clear: if you have a high-energy out-of-possession game plan vs. Belgium, your chances of avoiding defeat are strong.
Senegal’s first-round group was tougher than Belgium’s. They lost to France (1-3) and Norway (2-3), yet created more clear scoring opportunities in those matches than Belgium did vs Egypt and Iran. The Lions of Teranga have superior athletic power in midfield, and I fully expect them to dominate in that area of the pitch.
The draw is the smart selection, and it's playable to +200.
COVERS INTEL: Senegal have created more ‘Big Chances’ (according to Opta’s definition) in their group games vs. France and Norway than Belgium did in their two group games vs inferior opposition Iran and Egypt.Belgium vs Senegal Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-137)
Belgium recorded an average xG (Expected Goals) of 1.57 across their two games vs. Iran and Egypt, but that relatively high figure was largely the result of speculative attempts on goal rather than an ability to consistently fashion good scoring opportunities.
Fitness concerns over star striker Romelu Lukaku cast further doubt over Belgium’s chances of scoring heavily. The only Belgian forward with a proven scoring track record at the international level, Lukaku was unable to start any Italian Serie A games for his club Napoli in 2025-26 because of repeated injury issues. Now 33, he failed to manage a shot on target in 100 minutes on the pitch against Egypt and Iran.
Having conceded six times vs. France and Norway combined, Senegal will focus on defending more effectively than it did during the group phase. The main reason they struggled in their own half in those two matches, however, was that they faced world-class goal scorers in Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland. Belgium has no such player, thus improving Senegal’s chances of performing solidly here.
An even, low-scoring contest is likely and the Under is playable to -145.
Belgium vs Senegal projected lineup
Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; De Ketelaere
Senegal (4-3-3): Diaw; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Jakobs; I.Gueye, P.Gueye, Diarra; Ndiaye, Sarr, Mane
Belgium vs Senegal injuries
Belgium: Debast (Out), Lukaku (Doubtful)
Senegal: Mendy (Doubtful)
Belgium vs Senegal weather
Relatively cool evening with temperatures in the mid- to high 60s. Only a very small chance of rain occurring during the game
Belgium vs Senegal odds
 Belgium |
 Senegal |
|
|---|---|---|
| +127 | Moneyline | +257 |
| +233 | Draw | +233 |
| Over 2.5 (+133) | Total | Under 2.5 (-133) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Belgium vs Senegal
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 |
| Time | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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