The USMNT have their sights set on a run at the 2026 World Cup, and it begins with getting a win over Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday night.
According to World Cup odds, the USA are heavily favored with -270 odds to win in regulation against a Bosnian side that reached the knockouts as a third-place finisher.
My USA vs. Bosnia predictions back the Americans to do just that. Read on for my World Cup picks for July 1, with kickoff at 8 p.m. ET.
USA vs Bosnia predictions
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will win USA vs Bosnia: USA to win in regulation (-270)
During the group stage, the United States had the sixth-most touches in their opponents’ penalty area. That’s a good sign for them against a Bosnian side whose 29.33 penalty touches allowed per match were the 10th most of any side.
That said, Bosnia did a great job of limiting the damage caused by those touches, as they led all nations with 43 clearances per match. They also ranked 12th in recoveries per match, regaining possession 47 times per 90 minutes.
That's why I am siding with the Americans to win in regulation rather than taking the spread.
The Yanks have eight goals despite averaging just 14.67 shots and five shots on target per match, showing how efficient they’ve been in attack.
They’ve also utilized an aggressive counter-press that averages the third-fewest passes per defensive action (8.1) behind Germany and Spain.
Add in a healthy Christian Pulisic, and I’m confident the USMNT will come out on top of a Bosnian side that has compiled just 1.87 xG through three matches.
If you’re going to lay the juice, don’t go past -275.
COVERS INTEL: The USA have registered 6.21 xGOT compared to 4.62 xG, displaying how clinically they’ve taken their chances. USA vs Bosnia Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-127)
The Americans have question marks at keeper. It’s been somewhat papered over due to the stellar play of the midfield and Pochettino’s use of the counter-press, but it’s still a problem.
What also concerns me is the fact the USA have allowed the second-most xG per shot of any team, behind only Sweden. They’ve also allowed a goal on four of the six shots on target they’ve conceded so far — and have been fortunate opponents have been inaccurate on 73.9% of their attempts.
Bosnia’s only taken 27 shots, but they’ve scored four goals from 11 accurate attempts. It’s why they’ve scored 3.13 goals more than expected, a mark bested by only five nations — one of which is the USMNT.
Combine these factors with USA's attacking ability, and you see why I’m backing the Over.
USA vs Bosnia projected lineup
USA (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Ream, Richards, A. Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Balogun.
Bosnia (4-4-2): Vasilj; Memic, Muharemovic, Katic, Kolasinac; Bajraktarevic, Sunjic, Basic, Alajbegovic; Dzeko, Demirovic
USA vs Bosnia injuries
USA: Mark McKenzie CB (Doubtful), Auston Trusty LB (Doubtful), Cristian Roldan CM (Doubtful).
Bosnia: Amar Dedic RB (Doubtful).
USA vs Bosnia weather
It will be quite pleasant on Wednesday evening in Santa Clara, with kickoff temperatures in the low 70s. There will be plenty of sunshine, breezes between 10-12 mph, and no chance of rain.
USA vs Bosnia odds
 USA |
 Bosnia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -270 | Moneyline | +900 |
| +400 | Draw | +400 |
| Over 2.5 (-127) | Total | Under 2.5 (+112) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Bosnia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
