Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts looked to be en route to the regular season NFL MVP award before missing Weeks 16 and 17 with an injury.
Since returning to the lineup, Hurts has been far less productive, but hasn't needed to be with Philly blowing out the Giants and Niners. With Super Bowl odds having the Eagles and Hurts favored at some books, the QB has some high numbers in his Super Bowl player props department as well.
I look at how to wager on his lofty passing yards total against a suspect Chiefs defense with my best free Jalen Hurts prop pick for Super Bowl 57 while also bringing you a related same-game parlay.
Be sure to also check out our Super Bowl predictions before the Big Game!
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl 57 prop pick and same-game parlay
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jalen Hurts Super Bowl 57 best bet
The O/U on Hurts' passing yards total is set as high as 247.5, and with the tendency of the public to love betting Overs, don't be surprised to see this number get even higher before kickoff. That said, the sharp play might be on the Under when you consider the matchup and Philadelphia's tendency to lean on its ground game.
As productive as Hurts was during the regular season, he went Over this number in just five of 15 games. Those contests came against the Bears, Titans, Steelers, Vikings, and Commanders.
The Bears were last in the league in defensive pass DVOA and dropback EPA, while the Titans were 28th in both categories and allowed a league-high 274.8 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers were 25th in dropback EPA (and were missing elite pass rusher T.J. Watt at the time), and the Vikings surrendered the second-most passing yards per game.
The Commanders were the only team in that bunch that finished the season not among the worst pass defenses in the league. However, they had been struggling through the air when these teams first met in September, and when they rematched in Week 10, they limited Hurts to 175 passing yards.
Kansas City's pass defense isn't great, but it's better than those stop units and finished the regular season allowing 220.9 passing yards per game while ranking 16th in dropback EPA and 12th in dropback success rate.
Although Hurts' passing yards total has been somewhat suppressed by the game script in blowout victories, Philly is at its best when its offense is run-heavy. Even in more competitive contests throughout the season, Hurts was often held in check through the air.
I recommend waiting to see if the Chiefs' best corner L'Jarius Sneed passes concussion protocol before making this wager, but fading Hurts on his passing yards prop seems like a strong play.
Prop: Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 passing yards (-110)
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl 57 SGP
Although I'm fading Hurts on his passing yards total, he could still be productive on the ground in the Super Bowl.
Hurts didn't have many designed running plays for him when he came back from injury in the season finale, it was essentially a meaningless game and he still had nine rush attempts. He also had nine carries against the Giants in the Wild Card round and 11 vs. the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. While he was bottled up in both contests, he should find more room to run against K.C.
The Chiefs have surrendered 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season and playoffs and they allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season. That was despite them never facing a QB as dangerous with his legs as Hurts.
The best running QB Kansas City faced was likely Rams third-string passer Bryce Perkins, who picked up 44 yards on nine carries despite posing no threat as a downfield passer. Hurts is a good enough vertical passer for the Chiefs' defense to stay honest and his ability to scramble when the pocket collapses will come into use against a strong pass rush.
Joe Burrow had four rush attempts for 30 yards last week and there were some huge gaps he exploited that the faster Hurts would have turned into massive gains.
Kansas City's stop unit also ranked second-last in the league in red zone defense during the regular season which should mean goal-line success for Hurts who has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games.
Same-game parlay: +523 at FanDuel