Eleven years after Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception rewrote Super Bowl history, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots meet again, this time at Levi’s Stadium for a long-awaited Super Bowl rematch.
Our betting analysts have been tracking both teams all season and are ready to deliver their Super Bowl predictions, along with the NFL picks they're backing with real money.
Capitalizing on schematic mismatches the market hasn't fully priced in, our NFL experts cut through the noise to reveal value in a crowded Super Bowl betting landscape.
Jason Logan's expert Super Bowl picks
Covers' resident NFL expert and the host of The Sharp 600, Jason Logan blends traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis to provide audiences with the most thorough insights possible.
Jason's Super Bowl analysis
Solving the Super Bowl riddle is never an easy task for football bettors, but I believe this is Seattle’s game to lose. We’ve seen New England skate by teams with strong defenses but shortcomings on offense. The Seahawks are not only a top-tier defense but have an offense that can put up points, making them the toughest two-way challenge the Patriots have faced all season.
That’s not to write off New England by any means. The Patriots also have a solid stop unit, especially when it comes to stuffing the run. New England will need help in the form of takeaways to keep this close. In order to generate those game-changing plays, I see the Pats selling out to stop the Seattle run game and putting all the “Big Game” pressure on the arm of Sam Darnold. How he performs on the Super Bowl stage will go a long way in determining the winner.
Jason's best bets
- Seahawks moneyline - Analysis
After the New England Patriots’ pop-gun run to the Big Game — in which their offense struggled against quality defenses — they once again find themselves against a top-tier stop unit. The Patriots have posted just 12 and 13 first downs in their last two postseason games while averaging 3.2 and 3.9 yards per play in those contests. Quarterback Drake Maye has been limited in his production while absorbing 10 total sacks.
Seattle’s defense is tops in the land with a vaunted pass rush that ranked among the best in the NFL in pressure rate, sacks, QB hits, and hurries despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates. On top of that, the Seahawks offense has been humming in the tournament, torching the 49ers for 41 points and hanging 31 points on the Rams. New England hasn’t faced a team this complete... well, all season.
- Rashid Shaheed o23.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Since being traded to Seattle, Rashid Shaheed has faced only zone-heavy defenses (eight opponents rank between 1st and 15th in zone usage). He's much better vs. man coverage, which the Patriots use at the 6th highest rate.
New England also allows an average of 42.7 ypg to WR3. Shaheed's biggest day of the season came when the Saints played the Giants (7th in man), with 114 yards.
- Hunter Henry o37.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Drake Maye is in a tough spot against this Seattle pass rush that can generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Hunter Henry is Maye’s pressure release in short yardage and also his best receiving option versus zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second-highest rate.
Henry can also pick up yards after the catch, and the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most YAC. Seattle is also giving up the fifth most targets and receptions to tight ends, panning out to the sixth most yards allowed to TEs in the NFL. Projections for Henry sit as high as 46 yards from the Patriots' tight end in Super Bowl LX.
- George Holani Over 1.5 receptions - Analysis
The Patriots’ run stop is healthy and shutting the door on opponent running backs in the playoffs. Mike Vrabel’s game plan will be to eliminate the Seahawks ground game and put the Super Bowl on Sam Darnold, attacking the Seahawks QB with blitzes.
With Zach Charbonnet out, George Holani has stepped up as the RB2/third-down back and drew four targets for three receptions and 27 yards in the NFC title game. He now has two weeks to work within the offense and get used to the increased involvement. New England has also allowed the seventh most targets and fifth most receptions to RBs this season.
- Drake Maye longest rush o13.5 yards - Analysis
Drake Maye broke off big gains on the ground against the Los Angeles Chargers (37-yard long) and Denver Broncos (28-yard long), recording a run of at least 14 yards in four of his last six games, dating back to Week 15’s showdown with the Buffalo Bills — another stingy pass defense.
The Seahawks haven’t faced a quarterback as mobile as Maye in a long time. You’d have to go back to Week 9 against Jayden Daniels. Since then, Seattle has mostly defended pocket passers and veteran QBs, yet even those less-mobile signal-callers managed to pick up significant yardage on the ground.
- Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown - Analysis
Stevenson has been especially huge for the Patriots in the playoffs, but despite reclaiming the RB1 role, he's yet to find the end zone in the tournament. He finished the regular season with at least one touchdown in three straight, crossing the goal line six times in those outings.
We're seeing the sweetest ATTD price on Rhamondre in quite a while, with his touchdown odds around +135 in the past month. Player projections for Super Bowl LX put a Stevenson touchdown between 0.49 and 0.83, with my number at 0.59.
That makes the +160 return on a Big Game strike very appealing, especially with the way he's blossomed as a receiving threat over the past eight games.
- Jake Bobo Over 0.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Here’s to hoping we can get just one yard from Jake Bobo's “Open Arms” in Super Bowl LX. Bobo caught two balls in the regular season, but in two postseason outings, the 6-foot-4 receiver has been targeted three times for two catches, one of which was a 17-yard touchdown in the NFC Championship Game.
Utilized more for his run blocking, Bobo is a sneaky option in Klint Kubiak’s play-action schemes and has shown good hands and solid route running in his limited usage.
- Austin Hooper anytime touchdown - Analysis
It's fitting that a San Francisco son and former Stanford star find the end zone in Santa Clara.
And it's absolutely fitting that a guy who scored a touchdown with the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51 gets a second shot at a Lombardi as a member of the very same team that denied him back in 2017. The Seahawks have shown weaknesses to tight ends this season, and the Patriots love their 12 personnel.
- Sam Darnold Over 5.5 rushing yards - Analysis
I could see the Seattle QB opting to take off when no one is open and the pocket collapses — rather than force a throw.
Sam Darnold's projections are listed between nine and 12 rushing yards.
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Joe Osborne's expert Super Bowl picks
A familiar face to bettors thanks to his countless video appearances, Joe Osborne is an industry veteran who loves the entertainment aspect of the sports betting industry. His opinions are always backed by data, and he enjoys digging into the numbers and coming up with interesting trends and nuggets to share with sports bettors.
Joe's Super Bowl analysis
The Patriots’ relatively soft path to the Super Bowl is a fair criticism, and it looms large here. Seattle is undoubtedly the more complete team, with clear advantages on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold seems ready for this moment after showing up big in the NFC title game.
New England should generate some offense, but defensively, they won’t keep pace. I like Seattle to cover, the game to go Over, and the Seahawks to win 30–20.
Joe's best bets
- Over 45.5 - Analysis
The Seahawks’ offense is firing on all cylinders, scoring 41 and 31 points in their two playoff games. While their defense has received plenty of praise, they remain vulnerable, as the Rams demonstrated by putting up 479 yards of offense.
For the Patriots, winter weather and inconsistent quarterback play by opponents have kept their playoff games low-scoring, but that changes here. With Sam Darnold in form and normal conditions expected in San Francisco, the offense should be much more productive.
- Kenneth Walker III Over 21.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Kenneth Walker III has been going off in the receiving yards department in the Seahawks’ most important stretch of the season. Not only has he topped this mark in four of his last five games, but he’s also proving to have a high ceiling as he’s averaging 36.8 receiving yards in this five-game span.
With Zach Charbonnet out for the season, Walker will have a heavy workload vs. a Patriots team that allowed the sixth most receptions to running backs in the regular season.
- Drake Maye o218.5 passing yards - Analysis
This is a very modest number given Maye's body of work. He surpassed this mark in 14 of 17 regular-season games, averaging 258.4 yards per contest, so don’t let his playoff numbers throw you off. With no winter weather in San Francisco, Maye should resemble the MVP-level passer he was all season.
Seattle’s defense has also allowed big games recently, including 374 and 457 yards to Stafford and 277 to Brock Purdy. The Patriots’ schedule often gets criticized, but Seattle’s recent quarterback competition hasn’t exactly been elite.
More Super Bowl 60 predictions
- Josh Inglis' Super Bowl 60 prediction and picks
- Neil Parker's Super Bowl 60 prediction and picks
- Rohit Ponnaiya's Super Bowl 60 prediction and picks
- Super Bowl 60 same game parlay
- Super Bowl 60 MVP odds
- 3 reasons why the Patriots will beat the Seahawks
Josh Inglis' expert Super Bowl picks
Covers' NFL TD guru, Josh Inglis has been picking winners all season with his popular NFL Anytime Touchdown Predictions & Parlay column. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually, and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports.
Josh's Super Bowl analysis
I’m not as down on the Patriots as many, but this will be a much tougher defensive test than what they’ve faced so far in the playoffs.
What I do like about New England is its offense. They haven’t had the benefit of good conditions, and Drake Maye has shown flashes of a young Matthew Stafford.
The Rams just went into Seattle and torched the Seahawks for 374 passing yards and three touchdowns in front of the 12s. A neutral site and good weather should push two-way scoring.
Josh's best bets
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 rushing yards - Analysis
Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off a 25-carry game and has been the clear focal point of the offense since Week 18. Over that four-game stretch, he has topped 320 rushing yards and cleared this number in every game, including matchups against three elite defenses.
The workload is all his, with Henderson reduced to an afterthought, as Stevenson handled 90% of the RB opportunities against the Broncos. Even if Seattle sells out to stop the run, Stevenson has already proven he can move the pile versus the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.
- Mack Hollins anytime touchdown - Analysis
Mack Hollins missed four games after landing on the shelf following Week 16, but in the six games prior, he led the team with seven targets per game. He also logged more snaps in Week 16 and the conference championship than any other New England Patriots wide receiver, signaling clear trust when he's healthy.
Seattle has allowed just five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, and Matthew Stafford showed last week that this defense can be attacked through the air. It's a steep price, but one that makes sense for a receiver who should be competing for the team lead in targets.
- Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown - Analysis
I've already got a little on Rashid Shaheed for MVP at 50/1, and that means I like his chances of breaking a big play or two Sunday, while hopefully taking one to the house at +350. His role on special teams is difference-making as he has two kickoff-return TDs and one punt-return TD in his 11 games with the Hawks.
Shaheed can get behind defenses, and if Christian Gonzalez is fixated on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold might be able to spring the speedster. He might not get six targets, but he will get one or two deep shots that could change the game.
- Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown - Analysis
The red-zone matchup isn't ideal for Rhamondre Stevenson, but two things are hard to ignore: the price and the workload. This is a strong number for a back projected to handle 80% or more of the carries.
While the Patriots haven't spent much time in the red zone this postseason, Stevenson has dominated the backfield, accounting for roughly eight of every 10 running back opportunities.
TreVeyon Henderson has been largely phased out, as the coaching staff continues to lean on the veteran in high-leverage spots. That trust was clear against Denver, where Stevenson logged 25 carries compared to just three for Henderson.
- Elijah Arroyo anytime touchdown - Analysis
This is my moonshot Super Bowl touchdown pick. Elijah Arroyo sat out the NFC Championship and hasn't played since Week 14, which has caused his role to be largely forgotten. Before the bye, he saw five red zone targets over seven games and was a real part of the offense when healthy.
While AJ Barner has taken over as the No. 1 tight end, Arroyo could still see around 40% of the snaps and run roughly 30% of the routes. He's priced like a non-factor, yet he's targeted on nearly one of every five routes and owns a similar air yard share to Barner. Per the Covers projections, he stands out as the best +EV touchdown play on the board.
Neil Parker's expert Super Bowl picks
An avid football fan, Neil Parker has been in the sports betting space for 16 years. He takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds.
Neil's Super Bowl analysis
Seattle finished with the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign and then hung 41 and 31 points on the board in their first two playoff games while ranking first in EPA per play.
The Seahawks also send out the No. 1 stop unit by defensive DVOA. It’s a tough spot for New England.
Neil's best bets
- Seahawks -4.5 - Analysis
The Pats haven’t faced an offense as complete as the Seahawks, and they’ve had their own offensive struggles the past three weeks, with just five touchdowns while ranking 10th of the 14 postseason teams in EPA per play.
I’m happy to lay up to -5.5 with Seattle.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 95.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Jaxon Smith-Njigba registered 92 yards or more in 14 of 19 games with a 76.3 catch percentage, 11.7 aDoT, and 35.7% target share.
The New England defense played the easiest schedule by DVOA while ranking 31st in the metric against No. 1 wide receivers, and Smith-Njigba is the best wideout they've faced all season.
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 rushing yards - Analysis
The Patriots have leaned heavily on Stevenson this postseason, giving him 68% of the backfield carries while he’s logged 72.5% of the offensive snaps. As a result, he’s cleared this total in all three playoff games and has also rushed for at least 50 yards in six of seven contests since New England’s bye, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
Seattle brings an elite defense, but so did each of the three teams New England has already beaten this postseason.
- Drake Maye first TD scorer - Analysis
The Seahawks have allowed only five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs across 19 games, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is a threat on the ground with four rushing scores during the regular season and another in the AFC title game.
I'm anticipating Seattle giving the New England rushing attack trouble in the red zone, and Maye needing to call his own number or scramble for a score in Super Bowl LX.
- AJ Barner first TD scorer - Analysis
AJ Barner has multiple paths to paydirt against the Patriots. He caught six touchdowns during the regular season and rushed one in, with the 23-year-old tight end frequently moonlighting in quarterback-sneak and short-yardage situations.
Rohit Ponnaiya's expert Super Bowl picks
Rohit Ponnaiya combines his background as an athlete with a deeply analytic mind to help filter out the crucial handicapping information from the chatter.
Rohit's Super Bowl analysis
Drake Maye has been beaten up by strong defenses in the last two rounds, and the same story will play out against an elite Seahawks stop unit. Seattle's offense could have issues getting into an early rhythm with Kenneth Walker III facing a stout Pats run D and Christian Gonzalez shadowing Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
That said, Sam Darnold will eventually be able to find Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed for big plays and put points on the board. Once the Seahawks build a lead, they'll be able to shut the door on any chance of a comeback.
Rohit's best bets
- Seahawks -4.5 - Analysis
The Seattle Seahawks have the fifth-best DVOA (including playoffs) in NFL history since that stat has been tracked to 1978. The New England Patriots aren't on that level and have benefited from playing against the weakest schedule in the league.
The lack of offensive talent around Drake Maye has been exposed in the playoffs, with New England averaging just 4.3 yards per play. He'll get pummeled by a Seattle stop unit that led the league in defensive EPA.
- Sam Darnold o229.5 passing yards - Analysis
Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season, even while often playing with a positive game script. He went ballistic in the NFC Conference Championship, completing 25-of-36 passes for 346 yards. New England is stout against the run, so Seattle will likely air it out against a defense that ranked 15th in dropback success rate.
The Pats haven’t allowed many passing yards over the past month, but much of that came in poor weather while facing a string of subpar quarterbacks, including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarrett Stidham. They’ll have a much tougher task containing Darnold, who was named a Pro Bowler for the second consecutive year.
- Drake Maye longest rush o13.5 yards - Analysis
Maye had a 28-yard scramble on a crucial third down against the Broncos in the AFC Championship. The New England Patriots quarterback has recorded a longest of 14+ yards in five of his last seven games.
Maye has often been flushed from the pocket, forced to make plays with his legs due to poor pass protection. That scenario is likely to repeat in the Super Bowl, with the Seattle Seahawks boasting the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks scrambled 43 times against Seattle during the regular season — the second-most in the league.
- George Holani Over 1.5 receptions - Analysis
Given how strong the Patriots are against the run, Seattle will likely look to air it out against a defense ranked 15th in dropback success rate.
While New England hasn’t allowed many passing yards recently, those games often came in poor weather against a string of underwhelming quarterbacks, including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarrett Stidham.
They’ll face a stiffer challenge containing Sam Darnold, who completed 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards in the Conference Championship. Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season despite often benefiting from a positive game script — something he’s less likely to enjoy in the Super Bowl.
- Kenneth Walker III u73.5 rushing yards - Analysis
Walker shredded San Francisco’s weak defense in the Divisional Round but has struggled against stronger run defenses like New England’s.
The Patriots allowed just 77.1 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry during the regular season — both ranking fifth-best in the league. They’ve been even stingier in the playoffs, holding running backs to 38.7 yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry.
Walker was limited to 62 yards on 19 carries against the Rams in the NFC Championship. In seven regular-season games against teams ranked in the Top 10 for defensive rush success rate, he failed to reach 70 yards or 4.0 yards per carry in five of those contests.
- Hunter Henry o39.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Henry recorded 45+ receiving yards in five of his last seven regular-season games before hauling in 64 yards against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round. He managed just three catches for 17 yards over the last two rounds but is poised to bounce back.
Seattle's stingy defense has struggled against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receptions (105) and sixth-most yards (1,080) at the position during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Seahawks gave up 59 yards to Jake Tonges and 62 yards to Colby Parkinson.
The Seahawks operate a zone scheme at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and Henry posted the fourth-highest receiving grade among tight ends against zone coverage, according to Pro Football Focus.
- Stefon Diggs u45.5 receiving yards - Analysis
Diggs' production was wildly inconsistent from week to week, and the Seahawks have the best DVOA in the league against No. 1 wide receivers. Diggs has logged fewer than 45 receiving yards in his last four games.
That includes playoff games against the Chargers and Broncos, where he finished with just 16 and 17 yards, respectively. Diggs ranks 10th among wide receivers in receiving grade against man coverage (88.2) per PFF. However, that grade drops to 75.4 vs. zone coverage, and Seattle plays zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
- Byron Murphy o0.3 sacks - Analysis
Seattle DT Byron Murphy II might have been the biggest Pro Bowl snub this year. He tied for the team lead with seven sacks during the regular season while ranking seventh among all interior linemen in quarterback pressures.
Murphy usually lines up at right DT, which gives him a favorable matchup against LG Jared Wilson. The rookie is the weak link in the Patriots' offensive line and has a pass blocking grade of 42.8, which ranks 75th among 81 qualifying guards.
Drake Maye has been sacked 15 times in the playoffs, and Murphy should add to that at Super Bowl 60.
- Ernest Jones IV u8.5 tackles +assists - Analysis
Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace, which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board.
Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones IV has finished with fewer than 8.5 tackles in four consecutive games and is averaging 6.0 total tackles per game during that span.
- Marcus Jones o0.5 interceptions - Analysis
Darnold threw a pick in seven of his last 11 regular-season games, including a four-interception meltdown against the Rams in Week 11. He has thrown 14 interceptions, with eight of those picks coming on short and intermediate throws between the numbers.
Marcus Jones is the Pats' primary slot corner, which typically leads to him blanketing receivers on inside routes. Jones led the Pats with 11 passes defended during the regular season.
Jones has picked off a pass in four of his last 16 games, none bigger than a pick-six against the Texans in the Divisional Round. I wouldn't put a full unit on this longshot bet, but it's worth a sprinkle at +550.
Common Ground: Where our experts agree
They say that great minds think alike, and that’s certainly true when it comes to the Super Bowl spread. Neil and Rohit both jumped on the Seahawks at -4.5 immediately and are confident in Seattle's ability to win and cover.
That view is consistent with our Covers Consensus, as 59% of users also expect the Seahawks to cover in what is shaping up to be a very entertaining Super Bowl rematch.
Jason and Josh are both extremely bullish on Rhamondre Stevenson finding the end zone Sunday, and Jason and Rohit each expect Hunter Henry to take advantage of Seattle’s vulnerabilities against tight ends.
Split Decisions: Where our experts disagree
As seen below in our experts' exact score predictions, Josh Inglis is the only one backing New England to come out on top.
History is on Jingles' side, as the betting underdog has won outright in four of the last five Super Bowls.
Super Bowl exact score predictions
| Writer | Score Prediction |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan |
 Seahawks 24 -  Patriots 23 |
 Joe Osborne |
Seahawks 30 - Patriots 20 |
 Josh Inglis |
Patriots 24 - Seahawks 23 |
 Neil Parker |
Seahawks 30 - Patriots 24 |
 Rohit Ponnaiya |
Seahawks 24 - Patriots 17 |
Jason forecasts Super Bowl LX going down to the wire, with the Seahawks squeaking out a narrow 24-23 win.
According to the always-interesting “NFL Scorigami”, a 24-23 finish has happened 79 times in pro football history — most recently between none other than the Patriots and Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. A botched PAT by the Falcons in the fourth quarter cost them the win and led to this particular final score.
Read Jason's complete Super Bowl score prediction analysis ahead of Sunday's game.
Super Bowl 60 Predictions
Covers analyst Josh Inglis likes Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson to eclipse 50.5 rushing yards, while Joe Osborne expects Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III to go Over 21.5 receiving yards.
The Seahawks are favored by 4.5-points and Covers analysts Jason Logan and Neil Parker both expect Seattle to win and avenge its previous Super Bowl loss to New England.
Our experts are nearly fully aligned in their belief that the Seahawks will defeat the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
