It's the last call for NFL touchdown picks, and I'm bringing you my four favorite Super Bowl picks in order of strength, with prices playing a huge factor as always.
It's a lower-total Super Bowl, but there are some discounts with high prices for some roles that are being slept on.
Read more in my Super Bowl touchdown picks for Sunday, February 8.
Seahawks vs Patriots anytime TD picks
Mack Hollins (+425)
Mack Hollins missed four games after landing on the shelf following Week 16, but in the six games prior, he led the team with seven targets per game. He also logged more snaps in Week 16 and the conference championship than any other New England Patriots wide receiver, signaling clear trust when he’s healthy.
The Seattle Seahawks have allowed just five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, and Matthew Stafford showed last week that this defense can be attacked through the air.
It’s a steep price, but one that makes sense for a receiver who should be competing for the team lead in targets.
Rashid Shaheed (+350)
I've already got a little on Rashid Shaheed for MVP at 50/1, and that means I like his chances of breaking a big play or two Sunday, while hopefully taking one to the house at +350.
His role on special teams is difference-making, as he has two kickoff-return TDs and one punt-return TD in his 11 games with the Hawks.
He can get behind defenses, and if Christian Gonzalez is fixated on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold might be able to spring the speedster. He might not get six targets, but Shaheed will get one or two deep shots that could change the game.
Elijah Arroyo (+1000)
This is my moonshot Super Bowl touchdown pick.
Elijah Arroyo sat out the NFC Championship and hasn’t played since Week 14, which has caused his role to be largely forgotten. Before the bye, he saw five red-zone targets over seven games and was a real part of the offense when healthy.
While AJ Barner has taken over as the No. 1 tight end, Arroyo could still see around 40% of the snaps and run roughly 30% of the routes.
He’s priced like a non-factor, yet he’s targeted on nearly one of every five routes and owns a similar air-yard share to Barner. Per Covers projections, he stands out as the best +EV touchdown play on the board.
Rhamondre Stevenson (+140)
This is my fourth-favorite Super Bowl touchdown pick on DraftKings. The red-zone matchup isn’t ideal for Rhamondre Stevenson, but two things are hard to ignore: the price and the workload.
This is a strong number for a back projected to handle 80% or more of the carries. While the Patriots haven’t spent much time in the red zone this postseason, Stevenson has dominated the backfield, accounting for roughly eight of every 10 running back opportunities.
TreVeyon Henderson has been largely phased out, as the coaching staff continues to lean on the veteran in high-leverage spots. That trust was clear against Denver, where Stevenson logged 25 carries compared to just three for Henderson.
Super Bowl TD same-game parlay
- Mack Hollins TD
- Drake Maye TD
- Rashid Shaheed TD
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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