It was a slightly profitable week if you backed underdogs to cover the spread in Week 6, as they went 9-6 ATS, with four winning outright.
This week, my Week 7 NFL picks against the spread focus on betting the number, not the team, as I aim to keep our units in the black.
Week 7 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Steelers vs  Bengals |
(-5.5) |
 Rams vs  Jaguars |
(+3) |
 Patriots vs  Titans |
(+7) |
 Saints vs  Bears |
(+5.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Browns |
(+3) |
 Panthers vs  Jets |
(-1.5) |
 Eagles vs  Vikings |
(-2.5) |
 Raiders vs  Chiefs |
(+11.5) |
 Giants vs  Broncos |
(+7) |
 Colts vs  Chargers |
(-1.5) |
 Commanders vs  Cowboys |
(+1.5) |
 Packers vs  Cardinals |
(-6.5) |
 Falcons vs  49ers |
(+2.5) |
 Buccaneers vs  Lions |
(+5.5) |
 Texans vs  Seahawks |
(-3.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 10-14.
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Expert Week 7 NFL ATS picks
Steelers vs. Bengals: Steelers (-5.5)
The Cincinnati Bengals are a bad football team. The loss of Joe Burrow obviously didn't help, but his talent masked issues on the offensive line, which are still evident. The Bengals are also a bottom-barrel defense, giving up 403 yards per game and 30.5 points. The Steelers should be able to take advantage and win by a touchdown.
Rams vs. Jaguars: Jaguars (+3)
I'm 0-2 in Jaguars games over the last two weeks, but I think the Los Angeles Rams are in a bad spot. Puka Nacua left last week's game with an ankle injury, and if he's out, there goes the team's best option. The Jags are also used to playing in London, and I think that counts for something.
Patriots vs. Titans: Titans (+7)
I am betting the number, not the team. The Titans have shown bits and pieces of a good football team through six weeks, and with Brian Callahan gone, I'll trust the new coach bump. I believe this line is a bit inflated for the Patriots, who have just one win by more than seven points this year.
Saints vs. Bears: Saints (+5.5)
I am once again betting the number. The Bears may be on a three-game heater, but they've won their last two games by identical 25-24 scorelines. The Saints are starting to come around on offense, and the Bears may be a bit flat after that prime-time win. This is a dead number, and I don't trust the Bears to win by at least a touchdown.
Dolphins vs. Browns: Dolphins (+3)
There is nothing good to say about either of these teams. One team has Dillon Gabriel under center, the other has Tua Tagovailoa. I'll take the team with a bit more veteran presence on offense in what should be a three-point game either way.
Panthers vs. Jets: Panthers (-1.5)
After watching the Jets play last week vs. the Broncos, you'd have to have me committed before I back the Jets in any way, shape, or form.
Eagles vs. Vikings: Eagles (-2.5)
We are getting the best of the number, as I believe this spread ticks up before kick-off. Much has been made about the Eagles' offense, but the Vikings have two hobbled QBs and don't rate out much better on that side of the ball.
Raiders vs. Chiefs: Raiders (+11.5)
Division game, major let-down spot for the Chiefs, and the last three meetings have been one-score games. Getting double digits? Yes please!
Giants vs. Broncos: Giants (+7)
Again, this is a pick on the number. I'd love a +7.5 by kickoff, but a +7 will do for now. The Broncos just played in London and looked brutal. The Giants have extra rest and prep, and with a little swagger, can stay competitive in this ball game.
Colts vs. Chargers: Colts (+1.5)
I know full well the minute I start drinking the Colts' kool-aid is the minute it sours. I'll take my chances this week against a banged-up Chargers side.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys: Cowboys (+1.5)
The Dallas Cowboys are an enigma. One week, they look great, the next, not so much. I just don't see the Commanders having enough offense to keep pace with the Boys' at home.
Packers vs. Cardinals: Packers (-6.5)
The Packers made last week's win vs. the Bengals look harder than it should have been. This week, against a depleted and done-for Cardinals side, I expect a much easier time. I'll lay the -6.5 here before it trickles up over a touchdown.
Falcons vs. 49ers: Falcons (+2.5)
The Atlanta Falcons are being slept on. I don't see the Niners' offense keeping pace.
Buccaneers vs. Lions: Buccaneers (+5.5)
This is a play on the number. Could the Lions hang 40 and win the game? Absolutely, but not before Baker Mayfield drops 37 on your defense. This is likely going to be a shootout that will favor the team with the last possession.
Texans vs. Seahawks: Seahawks (-3.5)
Bye week or not, the Texans are not a very good football team, and I don't think they have the horses (or offensive line) to keep pace with the Seahawks.
My NFL ATS record is 49-44 this season for +0.9 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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