Finding the right balance between safety and long-term value is crucial in survivor pools. My NFL Survivor picks and strategy break down the best teams to target, risky options, and traps to avoid.
Check out our NFL picks for Week 1.
Week 1 Survivor Pool first look
For what it's worth, my favorite Week 1 survivor pick is the Detroit Lions to beat the New Orleans Saints. Detroit plays in a tough division, and a few teams might be more popular with similar Kalshi win probabilities because New Orleans is a hipster pick to win the NFC South.
Another team I'd consider is the Baltimore Ravens to go on the road and beat the Indianapolis Colts. Baltimore is a -3.5 favorite, and Indy QB Daniel Jones is playing his first game after a season-ending Achilles tear last year. Plus, the Ravens have something to prove after falling short of expectations last season and getting now-former head coach John Harbaugh fired.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including the NFL!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Teams to target in Week 1
Safe pick: Los Angeles Chargers (vs Arizona Cardinals)
By definition, the Los Angeles Chargers are the safest pick because they have the highest win probability in Week 1 and the Arizona Cardinals have one of the lowest win projections in the NFL. Yet, depending on your survivor league's size, you might want to go with a riskier pick and hope the Chargers lose because a majority of your opponents will use them.
Risky pick: Cincinnati Bengals (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Cincinnati Bengals struggling out of the gate since drafting QB Joe Burrow in 2020 is a known thing by now. Cincy is 2-4 in Week 1 since drafting Burrow, and the Bengals were -7 and -7.5 favorites in two of those losses. Also, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the favorite to win the NFC South at Kalshi and have a sneaky-good roster.
Teams to avoid in Week 1
Seattle Seahawks (vs New England Patriots)
We just saw the Seattle Seahawks crush the New England Patriots 29-13 in the Super Bowl LX, and it's rare for the reigning champion to lose their home opener. But Seattle lost its former offensive coordinator and Super Bowl MVP running back this offseason, and New England has an elite quarterback (Drake Maye) and coach combo (Mike Vrabel).
Las Vegas Raiders (vs Miami Dolphins)
It's incredible that the Las Vegas Raiders, who just had the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, are a -3.5 favorite. I know Miami could be the AFC Cardinals, but Las Vegas QB Kirk Cousins is washed and the Dolphins probably see the Raiders as the easiest game on their schedule. Regardless, just don't use Las Vegas and try to be cute by taking someone few people probably will. There is a reason for that.
Week 1 Survivor Pool strategy
Personally, I'm more aggressive in NFL survivor leagues because it's the most random sport and upsets happen all the time. By "aggressive," I mean I'm picking more tightly lined games early and saving teams I've invested in for future markets, like the Los Angeles Rams and Bengals.
Also, I like fading coaches in the hot seat rather than first-year guys because there is usually a rookie head coach who wins in Week 1. Taking the Philadelphia Eagles over Washington probably fits that description the best, considering the Commanders' head coach Dan Quinn could be fired if they have another bad season (5-12 last year).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
