Sunday’s battle of 1-5 teams may not leap off the page with excitement at first glance, but there’s plenty of intrigue as the Miami Dolphins visit the Cleveland Browns in Week 7.
The Dolphins are imploding, Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat, and Tua Tagovailoa continues to struggle. Can the ‘Fins get back on track in a hostile road matchup?
Rookie Dillon Gabriel will make his first start at home after playing his first two starts overseas. Will he lead the Browns to victory in front of the Dog Pound?
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 7 matchup on October 19.
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Dolphins vs Browns prediction
Dolphins vs Browns Best bet: Quinshon Judkins Over 93.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Cleveland Browns had a miserable time against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, losing 23-9 as Dillon Gabriel threw the ball 50 times.
The Browns got down early and were forced to go through the air to play catchup. It certainly wasn’t an ideal situation for the young QB, and I don’t expect Cleveland to lean that heavily on the pass game in Week 7.
The Miami Dolphins defense is far more friendly than the Steelers’, as Miami has surrendered the most rushing yards per game at a whopping 168.5. That includes the third-most rushing yards per attempt at 5.6.
Quinshon Judkins went 10-for-61 in his first game of the season and followed that up with rushing lines of 18/94, 21/82 and 23/110 before last week’s loss against Pittsburgh. In that one, he carried the ball only 12 times for 36 yards.
Judkins should see much more favorable gamescript in Week 7 against a struggling defense, and with weather conditions potentially rainy and windy, I’ll look for Cleveland to focus on the run game.
That should mean plenty of opportunities for the talented rookie to rack up rushing yards.
Dolphins vs Browns same-game parlay
Tua Tagovailoa has reached the Over in three of six games this season but only once in three road matchups. Already down Tyreek Hill, he may be missing Darren Waller as well this week. Add in poor weather conditions and a tough Cleveland defense, and he’s set up to go Under his passing prop.
Cleveland has scored the fewest points per game at just 13.7 this season, and they have failed to eclipse 17 in any contest. That will change on Sunday as the team gets back on track at home against a flailing Dolphins team.
Dolphins vs Browns SGP
- Quinshon Judkins Over 93.5 rushing yards
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 190.5 passing yards
- Browns Over 19.5 points
Our big-ticket SGP: Devine Play from De’Von!
De’Von Achane broke out for 150 scrimmage yards last week, and he should be a focal point on offense as a rusher and receiver out of the backfield. He’s been a lone bright spot for the ‘Fins this season.
Dolphins vs Browns SGP
- Quinshon Judkins Over 93.5 rushing yards
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 190.5 passing yards
- Browns Over 19.5 points
- De’Von Achane Over 105.5 rushing+receiving yards
Dolphins vs Browns odds
- Spread: Miami +2.5 | Cleveland -2.5
- Moneyline: Miami +124 | Cleveland -146
- Over/Under: Over 36.5 | Under 36.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Dolphins vs Browns trend to know
Miami is 1-2 ATS on the road, and Cleveland is 2-1 ATS at home this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Browns.
How to watch Dolphins vs Browns
| Location | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, October 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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