A wise man once said, “On any given Sunday, you’re gonna win or you’re gonna lose.”
And this season, that’s never felt truer. What we think we know makes no sense, and who teams think they are might just be an illusion.
Either way, we went 8-6 last week — let’s top that with our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread.
Week 11 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Jets vs  Patriots |
(+11.5) |
 Commanders vs  Dolphins |
(-2.5) |
 Chargers vs  Jaguars |
(-2.5) |
 Buccaneers vs  Bills |
(+5.5) |
 Bears vs  Vikings |
(+3) |
 Packers vs  Giants |
(-7.5) |
 Texans vs  Titans |
(+7.5) |
 Panthers vs  Falcons |
(-3.5) |
 Bengals vs  Steelers |
(+5.5) |
 49ers vs  Cardinals |
(+2.5) |
 Seahawks vs  Rams |
(-2.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Broncos |
(-3.5) |
 Ravens vs  Browns |
(+8.5) |
 Lions vs  Eagles |
(-1.5) |
 Cowboys vs  Raiders |
(-3.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-11.
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Expert Week 11 NFL ATS picks
Jets vs. Patriots: Jets (+11.5)
Keeping with the theme of the opening monologue, nothing in this league makes sense, which is why the first-place New England Patriots will not cover double digits on a short week. They are coming off an emotional road win vs. Tampa Bay, and now have to face the lowly New York Jets, who also found the win column last week. Too many points.
Commanders vs. Dolphins: Dolphins (-2.5)
The Miami Dolphins beat the Bills, while the Washington Commanders gave up 44 to the Lions. I'm not saying the Miami will hang 44 on the Washington defense, but I don't see a way back for a Commanders team that's dropped five straight.
Chargers vs. Jaguars: Chargers (-2.5)
One does not simply give up 26 fourth-quarter points to Davis Mills and expect a bettor to trust you a week later. The Los Angeles Chargers are a good football team with a real quarterback, and I expect them to drop 30+ on the Jacksonville Jaguars defense.
Buccaneers vs. Bills: Bills (-5.5)
If the Buffalo Bills have any sense of pride, they come out and lay a whooping on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were embarrassed by the Dolphins, and that won't fly on their home turf. I'll trust them to bounce back in this spot against a depleted Bucs side.
Bears vs. Vikings: Bears (+3)
The Chicago Bears are playing some good football right now, and this is a revenge spot from their Week 1 loss to the Minnesota Vikings — a game they led 17-6 heading into the fourth quarter.
Packers vs. Giants: Packers (-7.5)
I was on the Eagles last week to beat the Green Bay Packers, and that cashed despite some god-awful football. Now, I will back the Packers to beat the coachless, Jaxson Dart-less, New York Giants, who would be better off losing and securing a high draft pick.
Texans vs. Titans: Titans (+7.5)
The Houston Texans caught lightning in a bottle against a bad team last week, and while they may play another bad team this week, this is too many points. The Tennessee Titans are off a bye, and I believe they come out with some jump.
Panthers vs. Falcons: Falcons (-3.5)
I will die on this hill. The Carolina Panthers are not a good football team despite their 5-5 record. They've caught a couple of teams by surprise, and the Atlanta Falcons won't be one of them. The Falcons have too much offense for the Panthers to keep up with, and desperately need a win to stop their four-game losing skid.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Bengals (+5.5)
The last time these teams met, the Cincinnati Bengals won 33-31 as +5.5-point underdogs. I expect a similar result here.
49ers vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (+2.5)
Both teams were lit up last week, giving up 42 and 44 points, respectively. I would prefer this spread to be +3, but at home, I think the Arizona Cardinals' offense has a bit more upside than the San Francisco 49ers'.
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Seahawks vs. Rams: Rams (-2.5)
This may very well be the highest-scoring game of the week, but I trust the home side a bit more. Sam Darnold is primed for a stinker, and the Los Angeles Rams defense rates out better across the board.
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Chiefs (-3.5)
Offense wins out here. Luckily for the Kansas City Chiefs, they are off a bye and have Patrick Mahomes.
Ravens vs. Browns: Ravens (-8.5)
Don't let the Baltimore Ravens get hot. Once they do, they'll be hard to stop. I expect a thorough beating of the Cleveland Browns.
Lions vs. Eagles: Lions (+1.5)
This will be a very good football game (I say, with fingers crossed). Either way, I'll trust the Detroit Lions behind Jared Goff and Dan Campbell's aggressive play-calling.
Cowboys vs. Raiders: Cowboys (-3.5)
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a bye, while the Las Vegas Raiders were held to seven points on Thursday against the Broncos. I know both teams have their issues, but I trust Dallas' offense to put up points more than I do whatever the Raiders are running out.
My NFL ATS record is 77-72 this season for +0.2 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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