Inconsistency has seen the Buffalo Bills go from Super Bowl frontrunners to frauds in two weeks.
Buffalo followed a statement win over Kansas City with an absolute faceplant in Miami last weekend, stirring a surplus of questions around the Bills heading into Sunday’s non-conference collision with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If Buffalo is going to right the ship – or toboggan when it comes upstate New York – while throwing Tampa off course, it begins with stud quarterback Josh Allen.
My Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions begin with Allen as I give my favorite NFL picks for Sunday, November 16.
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Buccaneers vs Bills prediction
Buccaneers vs Bills Best bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+116)
Rarely do we see a quarterback of Josh Allen’s caliber paying plus-money on the Over for his touchdown passes prop. But a couple of factors are manipulating that market heading into this battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For one, the Buffalo Bills’ receiving corps is likely down its two biggest threats.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid is nursing a hamstring injury, while receiver Khalil Shakir is limited due to a bum ankle. Those two lead the team in red-zone targets and combine for seven of 15 receiving touchdowns this season.
Additionally, the extended forecast for Orchard Park calls for possible rain with sustained winds around 20 mph and 37 mph gusts. Not only does the wet weather make reeling in passes much tougher, but those strong breezes can push any deeper downfield shots off course.
While those factors make sense on the surface, this Bills offense and Allen himself are unique.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s philosophy has been “everybody eats,” and we’ve seen that from Buffalo throughout the schedule.
The Bills have had seven different players catch touchdowns, five different guys draw 20+ targets, and seven receivers amass at least 115 yards through the air in nine games. Losing Kincaid and Shakir hurts, but capable pass-catchers like Dawson Knox and Keon Coleman pad a talented depth chart.
And, as far as the wind goes, have you seen Allen’s arm? In all my years of analyzing football, I have never seen a QB care as little about the wind as No. 17. He’s been ripping frozen ropes into the strongest of gusts since college and doesn’t see the same downtick in output or accuracy as other passers when conditions deteriorate.
The Bills need Allen to chuck it on Sunday, given the way Tampa Bay slams the door on rival rushing attacks. The Buccaneers have long been one of the best run-stopping units in the league under head coach Todd Bowles, which can slow down this potent Buffalo ground game.
Tampa Bay has been much more susceptible to the pass in 2025, having been picked apart by top-tier QBs in recent weeks with the likes of Drake Maye, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold doing damage through the air (seven total TDs).
Allen is a far bigger challenge than those other passers and got a taste of this defense two years ago, lighting up Bowles' unit for two touchdown passes, a rushing score, and 324 yards (31-for-40 passing).
Player projections for Week 11 lean toward two TD connections for the Buffalo quarterback. His models range from 1.5 to 1.96, and Allen has posted two or more TD throws in six of nine outings.
Buccaneers vs Bills same-game parlay
The Bills may have a long list of injuries, but the Bucs are also missing pieces. Home field could be the edge – given temperatures will be far from Florida on Sunday – to get Buffalo back on track.
Allen has thrown for two touchdowns in six of nine games, and projections lean toward another multi-tuddy effort from his cannon of an arm.
With Kincaid potentially out, Knox steps into the TE1 spot as a big red-zone target.
Buccaneers vs Bills SGP
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Circling the wagons back home
Since 2020, Buffalo is 7-3 SU when returning home off a loss in the previous game.
Allen will be called upon to carry the offense with the run game wrapped up by the Bucs.
Knox has scored 24 touchdowns in his career and was Allen’s top RZ target before Kincaid showed up.
Mayfield is missing plenty of weapons, but he can will his team to victory, breaking off plays with his legs and running QB keepers on the goal line.
Buccaneers vs Bills SGP
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
- Baker Mayfield anytime touchdown
Buccaneers vs Bills moneyline prediction
This won’t be an easy game for the Bills, considering the injuries on both sides of the ball. I’m not sure they cover the spread, but the horrible November weather inside Highmark Stadium could be just enough.
Score prediction: Buffalo 24, Tampa Bay 21.
Buccaneers vs Bills odds
- Spread: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110) | Bills -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +220 | Bills -270
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Buccaneers vs Bills trend to know
Buffalo is 9-14 Over/Under (61% Unders) coming off a loss since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Bills.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Sunday, November 16, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Buccaneers vs Bills latest injuries
Buccaneers vs Bills weather
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