The NFL heads to Madrid today for a clash between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins.
Washington has been decimated by injuries, and my Commanders vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks expect Miami to take advantage in Week 11.
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Commanders vs Dolphins prediction
Commanders vs Dolphins Best bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-112)
The Miami Dolphins have been wildly inconsistent this season, but they're coming off a 30-13 victory against the Buffalo Bills. They also beat the Atlanta Falcons by 24 points on the road two weeks ago, and now they face a struggling Washington Commanders squad.
The Commanders are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last five games, with four of those defeats coming by more than 20 points.
Franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels is out with an elbow injury, with No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin sidelined as well. McLaurin isn't the only WR on the injury list, as Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Treylon Burks are also out.
With backup Marcus Mariota throwing to that injury-plagued WR corps, Washington won't be able to take advantage of a weak Dolphins' secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders will be without their two best corners in Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos. They also lost top edge rusher Dorrance Armstrong to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and their best defensive lineman, Daron Payne, will serve a one-game suspension.
Washington's stop unit has just four sacks in its last four games and ranks dead last in the league in defensive dropback EPA. With Tua Tagovailoa having time to operate in the pocket, expect Miami to move the ball.
Commanders vs Dolphins same-game parlay
The primary reason I like the Dolphins to cover is because I expect their offense to put up points against a struggling and banged-up Washington D.
The Commanders are 29th in the league in ppg allowed (28.0), with that number soaring to 38.5 over their last four contests.
With Tyreek Hill out with a season-ending knee injury, Jaylen Waddle has become the unquestioned top dog in Miami's WR room. He's racked up more than 80 receiving yards in five of his last six contests, and Washington allows the second-most receiving yards per game (177.9) to opposing wide receivers.
De'Von Achane has been the Dolphins' top offensive weapon and has scored a touchdown in seven of 10 games this year — including all three Miami wins.
Commanders vs Dolphins SGP
- Dolphins -2.5
- Dolphins team total Over 24.5
- Jaylen Waddle Over 78.5 receiving yards
- De'Von Achane anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Ertz so good
Zach Ertz is one of the few reliable pass catchers remaining on Washington's roster, and Miami is 25th in the league in DVOA against tight ends.
Commanders vs Dolphins SGP
- Dolphins -2.5
- Dolphins team total Over 24.5
- Jaylen Waddle Over 78.5 receiving yards
- De'Von Achane anytime touchdown
- Zach Ertz Over 43.5 receiving yards
Commanders vs Dolphins game predictions
Commanders vs Dolphins moneyline prediction
The Commanders are on a five-game losing streak, and injuries have ravaged their roster — none more impactful than the absence of Jayden Daniels.
The Dolphins are coming off their biggest win of the season and have been competitive in recent weeks after a brutal start to the season. They should take care of business in Spain.
Commanders vs Dolphins spread prediction
The Commanders haven't just been losing lately, they've been getting crushed with an average scoring margin of -22.3 ppg in their last four games. With this team on a downward spiral, I'll happily lay less than a field goal with the Dolphins.
Commanders vs Dolphins Over/Under prediction
These teams have piss-poor pass defenses, but neither side has an aerial attack that can take advantage.
Mariota has thrown for less than 215 yards in all four of his starts this year, despite having a negative game script in three of those game. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa is just 34th out of 37 qualifying passers in average intended air yards (6.6).
The Dolphins also play at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, and that, combined with their reluctance to attack downfield, has me leaning towards the Under.
Commanders vs Dolphins odds
- Spread: Commanders +2.5 | Dolphins -2.5
- Moneyline: Commanders +126 | Dolphins -148
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Commanders vs Dolphins trend to know
The Commanders are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Commanders vs Dolphins
| Location | Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Sunday, November 16, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NFLN |
Commanders vs Dolphins latest injuries
Commanders vs Dolphins weather
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