Sunday's matchup with the New England Patriots marks the Jacksonville Jaguars' final home game before a lengthy stretch away from Duval County, and my Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction examines whether Jacksonville can head into that run with momentum.
The Jaguars enter Week 3 as 2.5-point favorites at EverBank Stadium, creating a difficult assignment for a New England team facing challenges on both sides of the ball.
My best NFL picks for the 1 p.m. ET kickoff (CBS) on Sept. 27 are built around Jacksonville's favorable matchup advantages, and my handicap reflects that outlook.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars -2.5
On one side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence is the New England Patriots’ toughest QB matchup to start 2026.
New England faced backup QB Drew Lock for most of Week 1 and crushed a washed-up Aaron Rodgers last weekend. That has inflated the Patriots’ pass-defense numbers.
Lawrence is coming off a hard Week 2 matchup in Denver but still sits Top 5 in many advanced QB measurements and is complemented by an effective rushing attack.
On the other side, the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense can feast on a thinning New England protection. The Jags pass rush is getting solid pressure on rival passers without relying on the blitz.
New England lost top G Mike Onwenu in Week 2, and starting RT Morgan Moses is questionable. Quarterback Drake Maye is dreadful under duress, and two of his four INTs came under pressure.
COVERS INTEL: Drake Maye ranks 36th among qualified QBs when under pressure at PFF and lost his top pass protector in Onwenu. Jacksonville ranks No. 8 in pressure rate per dropback and has two INTs on the season.
Patriots vs Jaguars combo
The Jaguars present a tough two-way challenge for New England, especially with the Patriots missing pieces of their pass protection. Jacksonville will create chaos in the pocket and force Drake Maye into crucial mistakes.
Trevor Lawrence’s legs haven’t been too busy to start the season, but under Liam Coen’s offense, he was the third most active QB in red zone runs last season, scoring nine rushing touchdowns.
The Patriots will need to run the ball to control possession and keep the heat off Maye. TreVeyon Henderson stepped up in his season debut and ran hard. He’ll get a good snap share in Week 3 with projections as high as 57 rushing yards.
Patriots vs Jaguars combo
- Jaguars -2.5
- Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown
- TreVeyon Henderson 40+ rushing yards
Patriots vs Jaguars touchdown scorer: Trevor Lawrence
Under head coach Liam Coen, we’ve witnessed Trevor Lawrence blossom into a true dual-threat QB.
Last season, he rushed for almost 360 yards and nine touchdowns, coming on 23 carries inside the red zone. That was third among all QBs in 2025, behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
The Patriots didn’t have to worry about slow-mo Rodgers making plays with his legs last weekend, but T-Law can break away when the pressure comes.
New England is blitzing at a high rate, so we could see Lawrence tuck and run if the Pats bring extra bodies inside the 20-yard line. He scored four touchdowns in matchups with Kansas City and Indianapolis, two defenses that finished Top 10 in blitz rate in 2025.
Touchdown probabilities for Lawrence range from 23% to 32% in Week 3, with most at 30%+.
Patriots vs Jaguars player prop: TreVeyon Henderson 40+ rushing yards
TreVeyon Henderson made his season debut for New England in Week 2, garnering 60% of snaps after his backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled early on.
Henderson finished with 16 carries for 76 yards, and while the touches could be better balanced in Week 3, head coach Mike Vrabel didn’t dismiss Henderson’s involvement.
With the Jaguars' pass rush a problem, the New England run game needs to take heat off Maye and avoid long third downs.
Jacksonville isn’t as strong against the run, including the No. 28 rating in run-stop win rate at ESPN.
Measuring projections between the Pats' two RBs, Henderson holds the most value. His forecasts lean toward 40+ rushing yards, with some as high as 57 gains on the ground in Week 3.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 5-1, +3.44 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.00 units
Patriots vs Jaguars odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 | Jaguars -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (51%) | Under 45.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 42% | Jaguars 58%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Jaguars weather
The forecast for EverBank Stadium is partly cloudy, with temperatures in the mid-80s, which “feel like” 92 degrees on Sunday.
Winds are at 8 mph ENE with gusts up to 12 mph, blowing corner to corner. Weather won’t have an influence over the action on the field.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Jaguars trend to know
The Jaguars have been an excellent home side against the spread the past three seasons, owning an 11-5-1 ATS mark (68%) at EverBank Stadium since 2024. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Patriots vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Patriots vs Jaguars latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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