Thanksgiving has arrived, and with it comes the annual trio of events: Three Turkey Day matchups, a Black Friday showcase, and a loaded Sunday slate.
I’m fresh off an 11-3 mark (+3.63 units) and looking to add some more profit heading into this 16-game schedule.
Headlined by the Buffalo Bills prevailing in the Steel City, let's dive into my NFL picks for Week 13.
Week 13 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Packers vs  Lions |
-146 |
 Chiefs vs  Cowboys |
+152 |
 Bengals vs  Ravens |
-335 |
 Bears vs  Eagles |
-350 |
 Jaguars vs  Titans |
-330 |
 Falcons vs  Jets |
-152 |
 Rams vs  Panthers |
-700 |
 Saints vs  Dolphins |
-280 |
 Cardinals vs  Buccaneers |
-172 |
 49ers vs  Browns |
+205 |
 Texans vs  Colts |
-215 |
 Vikings vs  Seahawks |
-820 |
 Bills vs  Steelers |
-196 |
 Raiders vs  Chargers |
-560 |
 Broncos vs  Commanders |
-280 |
 Giants vs  Patriots |
-430 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-26.
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Expert Week 13 NFL moneyline picks
Packers vs. Lions: Lions (-146)
Despite struggling on the road this season, Detroit is 4-1 inside the fast track of Ford Field and 3-1 straight up at home against Green Bay during the Jared Goff era. Lions deliver a huge Thanksgiving Day victory to stay the course in the NFC North.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: Cowboys (+152)
Patrick Mahomes has looked awful in consecutive starts, while the Cowboys are riding high off an incredible comeback over Philly.
Steve Spagnuolo's blitzes stifled Daniel Jones and the Colts in the second half last week, but that won’t work against an elite Dallas passing attack.
I like America's Team as short road dogs.
Bengals vs. Ravens: Ravens (-335)
Joe Burrow's return will make this a fun, high-scoring shootout, but Baltimore has too much firepower to overcome, especially with Bengals WR2 Tee Higgins and star defensive end Trey Hendrickson sidelined for this divisional showdown.
Make it six straight wins for the Ravens.
Bears vs. Eagles: Eagles (-350)
Chicago may be 8-3, but it's survived largely on an absurd 24 takeaways.
The Bears enter this matchup against the defending champs with a -3 point differential, and Philly is going to be pissed off after blowing a 21-point lead in Big D.
Eagles dominate at the Linc.
Jaguars vs. Titans: Jaguars (-330)
Jacksonville has staved off a potentially season-derailing Week 10 loss in Houston by pulling out consecutive wins.
A layup in Nashville against the 1-10 Titans will keep Liam Cohen's team locked into a Wild Card seed.
Falcons vs. Jets: Falcons (-152)
Get ready for Kirk Cousins vs. Tyrod Taylor. Not exactly box-office stuff.
Considering Raheem Morris is hopeful WR Drake London could return from a PCL sprain — while Garrett Wilson remains on IR — I'll take Atlanta to get the job done in the Meadowlands.
Rams vs. Panthers: Rams (-700)
Los Angeles is unstoppable on both sides of the ball, powered by Matthew Stafford sporting a 30:2 TD:INT ratio at age 37.
Carolina is coming off a shorter week to prepare for this one, so it'll be outmatched against the NFC's No. 1 seed.
Saints vs. Dolphins: Dolphins (-280)
Miami has won two in a row and is fresh off a bye, and the Hard Rock Stadium heat will give them a leg up on a Saints team that isn’t used to playing outdoors in 80°F weather.
The Phins take this one to keep their season (barely) alive.
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-172)
There are too many moving parts on both injury reports to have real confidence either way, but considering Tampa Bay has lost three straight and is barely hanging onto first place in the NFC South, the Bucs can’t really afford to rest Baker Mayfield for a week.
I’m banking on Mayfield starting and giving Tampa some breathing room in the division.
49ers vs. Browns: Browns (+205)
So much for Brock Purdy looking sharp. The former Mr. Irrelevant threw three interceptions against Carolina on MNF, and despite coming out on top, the 49ers will struggle against a fierce Browns defense.
Purdy completed only 44.4% of his passing attempts against Cleveland back in 2023, and Jim Schwartz’s unit will be facing a 49ers offense that isn’t nearly as lethal.
Is Shedeur Sanders about to go 2-0 as a starter?
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Texans vs. Colts: Colts (-215)
Houston's defense is absolutely incredible, but this could be the week where its lack of offensive red-zone efficiency catches up to it.
The Texans are just 2–3 on the road, and despite having no DeForest Buckner, Indy will be able to hone in on Houston’s attempts to establish the ground game with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb.
Vikings vs. Seahawks: Seahawks (-820)
I was wrong about J.J. McCarthy. He's even worse than I ever imagined.
Whatever dirt Brian Flores and Kevin O'Connell have on Sam Darnold, it won't matter, considering how incompetent McCarthy is. He's going to get eaten alive in front of Seattle's 12th man.
Bills vs. Steelers: Bills (-196)
What was supposed to be an elite Steelers defense has turned into one of the worst units in the NFL this year, ranking 28th in total yards surrendered per game.
Although the Bills’ defense has been abysmal against the run, it should be fine against a Steelers offense that hasn’t been able to move the ball with much conviction on the ground.
Josh Allen will continue to do Josh Allen things, and Aaron Rodgers will have a tough time keeping up as he works back from injury.
Raiders vs. Chargers: Chargers (-560)
I've picked against the Raiders in all 11 of their games, and I'm not stopping anytime soon.
Jesse Minter's defense completely locked down Geno Smith & Co. in Week 2, and Chip Kelly’s firing is just the first of many shoes that could drop before season’s end.
Broncos vs. Commanders: Broncos (-280)
By my count, this is an absolute stinker of an SNF matchup.
The Broncos’ defense will feast on a Commanders team still without star QB Jayden Daniels, while Bo Nix and the Denver offense will do just enough (again) to improve to 10-2.
Look the other way if you're expecting fireworks.
Gianst vs. Patriots: Patriots (-430)
If only three quarters were played in the game, the Giants would be a playoff team.
Unfortunately, New York continues to unravel in the final 15 minutes, and New England is primed to run away with its first AFC East title since 2019.
My NFL moneyline record is 115-63 this season for +6.10 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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