Just over a month ago, the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers were surging to the top of the AFC. Flash forward to Week 13, and these franchises are frantically trying to get right before the home stretch of the schedule.
Buffalo visits Pittsburgh Sunday, and my Bills vs. Steelers predictions expect the reigning MVP to do whatever he can to get his team back on track.
Here are my best NFL picks for November 30.
Bills vs Steelers prediction
Bills vs Steelers Best bet: Josh Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards (-114)
If any one player can carry a team to victory, it’s Josh Allen.
We witnessed that a couple of weeks ago when the Buffalo Bills quarterback hung video game numbers in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And considering the look of the Buffalo injury report entering Week 13, Allen may have to put the hopes of Bills Mafia on his shoulders this weekend.
Buffalo has multiple receivers missing practice, along with both starting tackles carrying doubtful designations.
That’s not what you want when going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This defense thrives off pass pressure, bringing blitzers at the fourth-highest rate. That has the Steelers sitting third in QB hits and fifth in total sacks on the season.
Allen has used his legs to take a chunk out of blitz-happy opponents more than a few times this season. He’s played eight games against teams in the Top 10 in blitz rate, topping 30 yards rushing in six of those outings and averaging more than 36 yards rushing per contest.
With his pass protection porous on the ends and a lack of downfield threats in Week 13, Allen may have to tuck and run more than he’d like to this Sunday.
He also faces a man-heavy scheme from the Steelers, which does lend itself to QB keepers due to defenders locking on to a receiver in coverage and turning their back to the football.
Player projections for Allen’s efforts range between 29 and 34 rushing yards, which sit north of his current rushing yard prop total.
Let’s not forget the last time Allen took on Mike Tomlin’s defense, in which he scrambled for 74 yards in a 2023 Wild Card win over Pittsburgh.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Bills vs Steelers same-game parlay
With the Steelers’ pass pressure attacking a patchwork o-line, Allen will be forced to tuck and run a lot in Week 13. His projections sit north of 29 rushing yards.
He’s the biggest red-zone threat in the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns so far in 2025.
Kenneth Gainwell is giving Pittsburgh a rushing and passing option inside the red zone and faces a bad Buffalo run defense.
Bills vs Steelers SGP
- Josh Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
- Kenneth Gainwell anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Bills Mafia
I’m not crazy about laying points against Pittsburgh at home but I do like the Bills to win outright.
Bills vs Steelers SGP
- Josh Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
- Kenneth Gainwell anytime touchdown
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
Bills vs Steelers final score prediction
Buffalo may face a dinged-up Aaron Rodgers or QB2 Mason Rudolph. Either way, Josh Allen gives Buffalo a big edge under center. This could be a close one, but I’ll side with Buffalo.
Final score prediction: Bills 20-17
Bills vs Steelers odds
- Spread: Bills -3.5 (-104) | Steelers +3.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Bills -180 | Steelers +152
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-105) | Under 46.5 (-115)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Steelers trend to know
Under Mike Tomlin (since 2007), Pittsburgh is 19-29-1 Over/Under at home from Week 13 to the final game of the regular season (Week 17/18). That’s a 60.4% Under rate. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Steelers.
How to watch Bills vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Steelers latest injuries
Bills vs Steelers weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
