The Detroit Lions welcome the Green Bay Packers for a Thanksgiving matchup, and despite Green Bay’s Week 1 win, my Packers vs. Lions predictions lean toward a Detroit payback at home.
Check out my best free NFL picks for this clash between division rivals on Thursday, November 27.
Packers vs Lions prediction
Packers vs Lions Best bet: Lions moneyline (-150)
The Green Bay Packers are in second place in the NFC North with a 7-3-1 record, while the Detroit Lions are just half a game back.
Detroit ranks fourth in DVOA, with Green Bay just two spots behind. The Lions sit slightly below the Packers in offensive EPA, but they make up for it by ranking a few spots higher in defensive EPA.
The Packers beat the Lions 27-13 at Lambeau Field in Week 1, but much has changed since. Wide receiver Jayden Reed, tight end Tucker Kraft, and center Elgton Jenkins are on the IR, and quarterback Jordan Love has struggled to carry the offense against good defenses.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's stop unit has slightly regressed after looking dominant at the start of the year. Meanwhile, Detroit's offense has been executing at a higher level since head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10.
Everything about this matchup suggests a close game, so home-field advantage could be the difference. With Jared Goff under center and their speed at the skill positions, the Lions tend to perform better indoors, especially in front of their fans at Ford Field.
The Lions have gone 4-1 straight up at home this year, while the Packers are 1-4 against the spread on the road.
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Packers vs Lions Thanksgiving same-game parlay
Establishing the run will be key for a Detroit win. The Lions are 7-0 when they rush for more than 100 yards this year, while the Packers are 1-3-1 when they allow opponents to run for 100+ yards.
Pro Bowl running back Jahmyr Gibbs has scored a touchdown in each of Detroit’s last seven wins and has topped 90 rushing yards in five of those games.
With Sam LaPorta sidelined for the rest of the year, there will be even more targets than usual for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Detroit's No. 1 WR reeled in nine of 13 targets for 149 yards last week.
Goff will have a tough time throwing deep with Green Bay's pass rush, so expect more throws to short and mid-range targets like St. Brown.
Packers vs Lions SGP
- Lions moneyline
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 75.5 rushing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 75.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Turn Your Head & Goff
Instead of playing the Lions on the ML, let's back them to cover the spread in our big-ticket SGP while fading Goff on his rushing yards. The pocket passer doesn't have a single rushing yard in his last four games and sports just five carries for positive yardage this season.
Green Bay has allowed a league-low 9.1 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, and there's a chance that Goff will take a knee towards the end of the game if Detroit wins.
Packers vs Lions SGP
- Lions -2.5
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 75.5 rushing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 75.5 receiving yards
- Jared Goff Under 0.5 rushing yards
Packers vs Lions game predictions
Packers vs Lions moneyline prediction
This should be a close game, but I like the Lions to get revenge for their loss earlier this season.
Detroit tends to play better at home, and Green Bay is banged-up on offense and trending in the wrong direction on defense.
Packers vs Lions spread prediction
The Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, and home-field advantage should tip things in Detroit's favor.
I'll lean towards the Lions on anything below that key number of 3.
Packers vs Lions Over/Under prediction
Both of these teams have explosive attacks, but they are also banged up on that side of the ball.
Meanwhile, Detroit is fourth in the league in defensive EPA while Green Bay ranks 10th.
In addition, both teams sit in the Bottom 10 in pace. That has me leaning towards the Under 48.
Packers vs Lions odds
- Spread: Green Bay +125 | Detroit -150
- Moneyline: Green Bay +2.5 (-105) | Detroit -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) | Under 48 (-110)
Packers vs Lions betting trend to know
The Lions have gone 19-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss during the Dan Campbell era. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Lions.
How to watch Packers vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Thursday, November 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Packers vs Lions latest injuries
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