The New York Jets certainly haven’t thrown in the towel on the season, but after picking up their first two wins, they’ve failed to find another in the last two weeks.
We’ll explain in our Falcons vs. Jets predictions why Atlanta, down its starting quarterback, may struggle offensively and help New York into the game.
Read below for my NFL picks for Sunday, November 30.
Falcons vs Jets prediction
Falcons vs Jets Best bet: Jets +2.5 (-104)
The New York Jets' defense has held relatively strong despite the team’s struggles to score the ball, and Sunday will be a great opportunity for that unit to shine once again. Yes, New York is ranked among the worst in the league against the pass, but Atlanta won’t be dialing up too many.
The Atlanta Falcons rank 13th in run play rate this season, and that’s a figure that’s sure to rise with Michael Penix, Jr. lost for the season. Bijan Robinson is the backbone of this offense now — certainly not Kirk Cousins — and Robinson will head up against a Jets defense that just limited the Baltimore Ravens to 2.9 yards per carry last week.
It’s now ranked 12th in DVOA against the run, and it wouldn’t seem much is stopping them with the defense looking reenergized.
Now, Cousins did put together a solid showing last week, but that game came against the New Orleans Saints. While their secondaries are probably pretty comparable, New York’s front seven has cleared by a wide margin in getting to the passer and stopping the run, meaning I’m not really keen on diving headfirst into Atlanta with the jury very much still out on Cousins.
Even if the Jets aren’t putting together much on offense, they can still move the ball with Breece Hall as they’ve demonstrated in recent weeks. The Falcons shouldn’t offer much resistance, giving up a hefty 4.6 yards per tote and a good deal of short passes, and the Jets should control this one as a result.
Falcons vs Jets same-game parlay
This is the best spot you could imagine for Hall. Not only are the Falcons down there in DVOA against the run, yielding over 4.6 yards per carry, they’re also giving up the sixth-most targets per game to the running back position.
It’s evident by now how much the Jets lean on Hall in both facets of the game, and in a soft matchup, he will be the whole team. I’m also going to play this cheeky Cousins rushing prop, considering the Jets have allowed the highest scramble rate in the league, and they should also influence the veteran to get creative.
He ran twice for five yards last week, which is all I need to see.
Falcons vs Jets SGP
- Jets +2.5
- Breece Hall Over 96.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Pitts!
This is a lottery ticket at the end of the day, so why not go out on a limb with an Under — and the ever-risky Kyle Pitts?
The Jets aren’t allowing many checkdowns, ranking in the bottom five, which means the middle of the field will be utilized. That’s where Pitts will set up shop, and he’ll go up against a Jets defense that is bottom five in DVOA against the position.
That also means Bijan Robinson shouldn’t be a feature of the passing game, and that’s even more true when you consider the Jets have allowed the second-fewest targets per game (4.1) to running backs.
Falcons vs Jets SGP
- Jets +2.5
- Breece Hall Over 96.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 rushing yards
- Kyle Pitts Over 44.5 receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 receptions
Falcons vs Jets odds
- Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-110) | Jets +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Falcons -140 | Jets +118
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Falcons vs Jets trend to know
The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in eight of their last nine games at home (+7.15 Units / 70% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Jets.
How to watch Falcons vs Jets
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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