The Denver Broncos are in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed — but are they fool’s gold?
If Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have anything to say about it, Denver’s surge could come to a screeching halt after this AFC West showdown at Mile High.
Read more in my NFL picks for the entire Week 11 slate.
Week 11 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Jets vs  Patriots |
-900 |
 Commanders vs  Dolphins |
-156 |
 Chargers vs  Jaguars |
-156 |
 Buccaneers vs  Bills |
+220 |
 Bears vs  Vikings |
-168 |
 Packers vs  Giants |
-355 |
 Texans vs  Titans |
-355 |
 Panthers vs  Falcons |
-180 |
 Bengals vs  Steelers |
-230 |
 49ers vs  Cardinals |
-168 |
 Seahawks vs  Rams |
+138 |
 Chiefs vs  Broncos |
-205 |
 Ravens vs  Browns |
-450 |
 Lions vs  Eagles |
-144 |
 Cowboys vs  Raiders |
-196 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-12.
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Expert Week 11 NFL moneyline picks
Jets vs. Patriots: Patriots (-900)
Justin Fields had just five passing yards at halftime last week, and the Jets were ultimately bailed out by two special teams touchdowns in their win over Cleveland. Expect Fields and New York to fail to keep pace with a Patriots team that has Drake Maye playing at an MVP level.
New England rolls at Gillette Stadium.
Read our full Jets vs. Patriots predictions.
Commanders vs. Dolphins: Dolphins (-156)
Madrid could be a nice spot for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, as they’re set to take on a reeling Commanders roster that has surrendered 38.5 points per game over its last four contests.
I wouldn't recommend waking up early for this one, but I'll take Miami as the "home" team.
Chargers vs. Jaguars: Chargers (-156)
Travis Hunter is done for the season after undergoing knee surgery, and it looks like Liam Coen’s magic may have run out in Duval County, as the Jaguars are fresh off squandering a 19-point fourth-quarter lead in Houston.
Los Angeles’ defense remains elite under Jesse Minter, and Justin Herbert should have no trouble exploiting a porous Jacksonville secondary.
Buccaneers vs. Bills: Buccaneers (+220)
Real injuries are plaguing both sides, but I can’t pass up on a Bucs team that’s 4-1 on the road this year and is catching +220 odds.
Bears vs. Vikings: Vikings (-168)
J.J. McCarthy has continued to show growth since reclaiming the starting job in Minnesota, and the Vikings’ defense is finally fairly healthy.
Chicago’s stop unit has been a mess all season, and its offense will be playing from behind early in this divisional matchup.
Packers vs. Giants: Packers (-355)
This is a perfect bounce-back spot for Green Bay, which has lost its identity over the past two weeks.
Jameis Winston is set to make his first start under center for New York, and the Packers should be able to force some turnovers against the journeyman quarterback.
Texans vs. Titans: Texans (-355)
No C.J. Stroud, no problem when you’re going up against the 1-8 Titans.
The Texans’ defense will do the heavy lifting, propelling Houston to its sixth win in its last seven contests against Tennessee.
Panthers vs. Falcons: Falcons (-180)
Atlanta was shut out 30-0 in its last head-to-head showdown with Carolina in Week 3, yet the Falcons outgained the Panthers by more than 100 yards in total offense.
Now back on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons should have their turn running up the score against their NFC South rivals.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Steelers (-230)
Aaron Rodgers is coming off his worst start as a Steeler, but facing a dismal Bengals defense is just what the doctor ordered for Pittsburgh.
It doesn’t feel like it, but the Steelers still lead the AFC North, and a win on Sunday would provide a nice reprieve from Baltimore’s recent surge.
49ers vs. Cardinals: 49ers (-168)
If Arizona’s two starting corners weren’t listed as questionable, I’d take a shot on the Cards, but the defense is going to be picked apart if both Will Johnson and Max Melton are sidelined.
San Francisco's season is still somehow alive, and the 49ers will grab a much-needed win in the desert.
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Seahawks vs. Rams: Seahawks (+138)
Seattle boasts the best point differential in the NFC, and its defense won’t allow Sean McVay to establish the ground game on Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unguardable, and a revenge outing from Cooper Kupp could be in the cards with first place in the division on the line.
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Chiefs (-205)
The Broncos are the most fraudulent “contender” I’ve seen since the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Kansas City has owned Denver throughout the Mahomes era, and the Chiefs will make the AFC West race interesting with a win at Empower Field.
Ravens vs. Browns: Ravens (-450)
Baltimore has hit its stride, winning three straight, and the defense has completely turned things around in recent weeks.
With Lamar Jackson getting closer to 100%, the Ravens should have no trouble steamrolling a Browns team that just lost to the measly Jets.
Lions vs. Eagles: Eagles (-144)
Philly remains one of the toughest teams to watch, yet the defending champs keep finding ways to win.
Jaelan Phillips helped the Eagles’ pass rush dominate the line of scrimmage against Green Bay, and a banged-up Lions secondary could be in for a long day against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Cowboys vs. Raiders: Cowboys (-196)
Dallas had a much-needed bye week after laying an absolute egg against Arizona, and its offense will carve up a Las Vegas defense that struggles to get off the field on third down (29th in the NFL).
The addition of Quinnen Williams in the trenches will clog up the run game, leaving Vegas’s one-dimensional passing attack in serious trouble.
My NFL moneyline record is 95-54 this season for +4.20 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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