We have a pair of games on Monday Night Football in Week 4, with the first one taking place in the Sunshine State between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
These have been two of the worst defenses in the league, which is why my Jets vs. Dolphins predictions are betting on both teams to move the ball.
Check out my NFL picks and same-game parlays for this AFC East clash on September 29.
Jets vs Dolphins prediction
Jets vs Dolphins Best bet: Both teams to score 20+ points (+135)
On paper, the New York Jets should be a good defensive team, but games aren't played on paper. The Jets have surrendered at least 29 points in all three of their games this year while ranking 28th in the league in defensive EPA.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa struggles against defenses that generate pressure, but he can move the ball when he has time to find his weapons. With the Jets ranking second-last in the NFL in pressure rate (13.1%), expect Tua to get into a rhythm.
As bad as the Jets have been on defense, the Dolphins have been even worse. They've given up more than 30 points in every game while ranking dead-last in defensive EPA.
The Jets are expected to get back QB Justin Fields, who missed Week 3 due to a concussion. Fields was terrific in Week 1 before a horrible performance against the Bills in Week 2.
While I expect Fields to falter against quality defenses, his mobility will create problems for a poor stop unit that misses tackles and doesn't force turnovers. With neither defense able to get a stop, I'm backing both sides to score at least 20 points.
Jets vs Dolphins MNF same-game parlay
Jets running back Breece Hall has been bottled up the last two weeks. That said, he's still a talented back that rushed for 107 yards in the season opener, and Miami is surrendering 145 rushing yards per game.
Garrett Wilson has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in each of his first three seasons and is the only legitimate receiving threat on the Jets roster. He leads the team in targets (30), receptions (21), and receiving yards (229), while no other Jets WR has been targeted more than six times.
He should be fed the ball against a Dolphins team that has the worst crop of corners in the NFL.
Jets vs Dolphins 3-leg SGP
- Over 44.5
- Breece Hall Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Garrett Wilson Over 65.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Fins win in spite of defense
We get a nice non-correlated multiplier for backing New York's top two offensive players to have good games while also taking Miami on the moneyline. Even if Wilson and Hall have productive nights, the Jets might not have the firepower to keep pace with the Dolphins at home.
Jets vs Dolphins 4-leg SGP
- Both teams to score 20+ points
- Breece Hall Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Garrett Wilson Over 65.5 receiving yards
- Dolphins moneyline
Jets vs Dolphins odds
- Spread: New York +3 (-120) | Miami -3 (+100)
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Miami -150
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Jets vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Over has cashed in eight straight home games for the Dolphins. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Jets vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Monday, September 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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