The Jacksonville Jaguars seek to remain in the Wild Card conversation when they face the Houston Texans this afternoon in an important AFC South game.
C.J. Stroud has been ruled out, meaning Davis Mills leads the offense for the Texans. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are struggling with injuries on offense, which is reflected in our NFL odds for the offense.
Read on to see why I think those injuries will benefit us in my Jaguars vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks for today's game.
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Jaguars vs Texans prediction
Jaguars vs Texans Best bet: Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 receptions (+116)
The addition of Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline was a move that went under the radar, but one that the Jacksonville Jaguars needed to make. And given the injury concerns heading into this game, it could pay immediate dividends.
Brian Thomas Jr. leads the Jaguars in targets (60), catches (30), and first downs picked up via reception (19). Travis Hunter is second in targets, catches, and yards. And neither is available for Sunday’s game.
Toss in the fact that Dyami Brown, who is fourth in receiving yards, has yet to clear concussion protocol, and you have a mini-crisis for Trevor Lawrence. That’s where Meyers comes into play.
One of Jacksonville’s biggest problems this season has been dropped passes. Meyers is as sure-handed as they come, with just one drop on the year. He’s caught 33 of 48 targets, and he’s made at least four catches in six of his seven games this season. That includes two games where he only ran 23 routes.
The absence of three of the top four receivers for the Jags means Meyers will be thrown right into the fire. Given how sure-handed he is, Lawrence is likely to look for him in key situations. That makes him getting plus-money for four grabs a solid value.
Jaguars vs Texans same-game parlay
Liam Coen discussed how the Houston Texans threw some looks at the Jaguars in their first meeting that made running the ball difficult early. The Jags made halftime adjustments, and Travis Etienne ran for 56 yards.
Coen said last week the Jags need to run more, and Etienne had a season-high 22 carries for 84 yards. He’s averaging more than three yards after contact and will hit his floor against a Texans defense that is struggling with missed tackles.
The Texans struggled without C.J. Stroud last week, punting on all six series that Davis Mills led. He’s a game manager at best, and a liability at worst. The Jaguars will likely do enough to win this game, given the Texans' struggles to find offense.
Jaguars vs Texans SGP
- Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 receptions
- Travis Etienne Over 55.5 rushing yards
- Jaguars moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Etienne eats!
With the injury woes and the Texans having one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, this is a game where Etienne should get the ball in his hands via the air as well. He’s seen an increase in targets with 17 over his last four games, and has 3+ catches in three of his previous four.
Last week, he caught all five of his targets for 31 yards and was tied with Thomas Jr for third-most looks on the team. I will be surprised if he’s not targeted at least five times as the safety valve against a Houston defense that knows it must do well to have a chance to win.
Jaguars vs Texans SGP
- Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 receptions
- Travis Etienne Over 55.5 rushing yards
- Jaguars moneyline
- Travis Etienne Over 2.5 receptions
Jaguars vs Texans game predictions
Jaguars vs Texans moneyline prediction
I’m backing the Jags against the spread, which means I like them to win outright. Jacksonville is still in contention for the playoffs, and the Texans are one loss away from being done. I’ll go with the team that is more motivated and has the better quarterback.
Jaguars vs Texans spread prediction
The spread has flipped to the Jaguars being favored by a point and a half, and I like them to cover. Houston is going to struggle without CJ Stroud, and the defense can hold up for only so long.
Jaguars vs Texans Over/Under prediction
The total of 37.5 is relatively low, but I still lean under here. The Texans will rely on their defense against a Jacksonville team that keeps committing penalties and struggles to push the ball downfield, while the Texans won’t find much success with Davis Mills behind center.
Jaguars vs Texans odds
- Spread: Jaguars +3.5 | Texans -3.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars +150 | Texans -180
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Jaguars vs Texans trend to know
The Jaguars have cashed the fourth-quarter Under in five of their last seven away games for +3.90 units and a 49% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Texans.
How to watch Jaguars vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, November 9, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Jaguars vs Texans latest injuries
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