I’m Buying Trevor Lawrence for NFL MVP This Week. Here’s Why You Should Too

After the signing of Aaron Donald, the Los Angeles Rams' probability of winning the Super Bowl at Kalshi has increased, but they aren't the team I'm targeting in this market.

Sure, Matthew Stafford and the Rams may have the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl, but it's the Rams' former quarterback, Jared Goff, and his squad who offer the best trade in this market.

Each week, our NFL Futures Fund will identify the teams and players worth buying, fading, holding, or targeting as long shots based on the latest NFL odds.

Week 1 NFL futures portfolio strategy

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, use our odds converter.

Future	Market	Action	Probability
Lions	Super Bowl	Buy	4%
Rams	Super Bowl	Fade	17%
Malik Nabers	Comeback Player of the Year	Hold	4%
Trevor Lawrence	MVP	Long Shot	4%

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Buy: Lions to win Super Bowl because of Kalshi's value

• Kalshi probability: 4%
• Key metric: Projected Win Probability is 5.5%
• Next catalyst: Week 1 vs. New Orleans Saints

It was a disappointing 2025 season for the Detroit Lions, as they missed the playoffs and finished last in the NFC North with a 9-8 record. However, that disappointment could set them up for a major bounce-back campaign in 2026, as they'll benefit from playing a fourth-place schedule.

A big reason I'm putting a buy tag on the Lions to win the Super Bowl is the price currently available at Kalshi. You can buy "Yes" on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at 4%, while they're trading closer to 5.3% at our other best prediction market sites.

That 4% price is significant because I project the Lions to have a 5.5% chance of winning. Based on that projection, the price available at Kalshi provides a strong edge and makes the Lions an attractive buy in the Super Bowl market.

Fade: Rams to Win Super Bowl until their probability dips

• Kalshi probability: 17%
• Key concern: Projected Win Probability is 14%
• Next catalyst: Week 1 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Los Angeles Rams hold the highest implied probability of winning the Super Bowl in my projections, meaning I consider them the best team in the NFL entering the season. That’s why they also sit atop the Super Bowl futures board at Kalshi.

However, simply having the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl doesn't make the Rams the best trade in this market. In fact, they're one of the worst because there isn't a meaningful gap between my projection and the market price that we can exploit.

I price the Rams closer to a 14% chance of winning the Super Bowl, while Kalshi has them trading at 17%. Based on my projection, buying the Rams at that price offers significantly negative expected value.

Hold: Malik Nabers to Win Comeback Player of the Year

• Kalshi probability: 4%
• Key metric: Projected Win Probability is 6.5%
• Next catalyst: Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Malik Nabers was someone I recommended buying earlier in the offseason, and my conviction in this trade is even stronger now than it was then.

A couple of weeks ago, I was looking to buy Nabers at 5% for Comeback Player of the Year because there was a chance he would be available to play in Week 1. Now, he’s expected to play in Week 1, and his price has dropped to 4%.

Part of the reason for that decline is that Aaron Donald currently holds 8% of the market, despite voters being discouraged from voting for a player who isn't returning from an injury but is instead coming out of retirement.

Not only is Nabers now available at a better probability, but we also have more certainty surrounding his availability for Week 1. At 4%, I think Nabers is a strong hold in the Comeback Player of the Year market.

Long Shot: Trevor Lawrence to Win NFL MVP

• Kalshi probability: 4%
• Upside metric: Projected Win Probability is 5.6%
  
• Next catalyst: Week 1 vs. Cleveland Browns

This might not seem like much of a long shot, but in the NFL MVP market, backing a player who is trading at 4% and ranks as the 13th quarterback on the board is still a bold move.

More than almost anyone in the NFL, Lawrence feels like a player with another level he can reach—and if it isn't now, then when? In his first season under Liam Coen, Lawrence threw for more than 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns. He also rushed for a career-high nine touchdowns in his first year in Coen's offense.

If those numbers improve even slightly this season, Lawrence should find himself in the MVP conversation. You're not asking for a massive leap here — just modest improvement on what he accomplished in his first year under Coen.

I project Lawrence to win NFL MVP just over 5% of the time, which is why the 4% price available at Kalshi stands out to me.

My NFL futures portfolio tracker

The Detroit Lions are the first buy position added to the tracker, and I feel confident that this 4% probability to win the Super Bowl won't last long at Kalshi. The market is pricing the Lions well below where they are trading at other prediction markets, creating an opportunity to take advantage of the discrepancy.

The Lions should also be able to stack wins early in the season thanks to the softness of their schedule. That could cause their Super Bowl probability to rise quickly.

The table below tracks when each future entered the portfolio and how its price has moved since it was added.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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