Uncovering true end-zone value in Week 3 comes down to identifying heavy-workload backfields and lethal matchup advantages.
Bucky Irving leads our board as Tampa Bay's primary goal-line weapon, while Blake Corum offers massive upside in a lucrative split-backfield script.
Whether you're backing volume-driven lead backs or explosive touchdown converters, our expert NFL picks isolate the sharpest market edges on the slate.
NFL touchdown picks for Week 3
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| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Chargersvs  Bills |
Omarion Hampton 52% |
 Panthersvs  Browns |
Darren Waller 22% |
 Jetsvs  Lions |
Amon-Ra St. Brown 53% |
 Texansvs  Colts |
David Montgomery 49% |
 Chiefsvs  Dolphins |
Kenneth Walker III 67% |
 Titansvs  Giants |
Tony Pollard 33% |
 Bengalsvs  Steelers |
Tee Higgins 36% |
 Seahawksvs  Commanders |
Emanuel Wilson 28% |
 Patriotsvs  Jaguars |
Trevor Lawrence 24% |
 Cardinalsvs  49ers |
Deebo Samuel 36% |
 Vikingsvs  Buccaneers |
Bucky Irving 41% |
 Ravensvs  Cowboys |
Mark Andrews 41% |
 Raidersvs  Saints |
Travis Etienne Jr. 40% |
 Ramsvs  Broncos |
Blake Corum 26% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NFL touchdown picks for Week 3
Chargers vs Bills: Omarion Hampton
Building on the case for Hampton to find the end zone, he has handled 50% of the touches in the red zone for the Bolts and has converted both his rushes inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns.
Additionally, Buffalo has allowed opponents to score touchdowns on seven of their nine trips to the red zone for the eighth-highest 77.8% rate.
Check out Neil Parker's full Chargers vs. Bills predictions.
Panthers vs Browns: Darren Waller
Receivers Xavier Legette (knee) and Jalen Coker (ankle) were both on the Panthers injury report this week. Defenses have been focusing on 2025 rookie-of-the-year candidate Tetairoa McMillen.
That leaves tight end Darren Waller, who had two touchdowns last week, as a top candidate for Young to find. Waller's six touchdowns with Miami last year would have ranked second on Carolina, behind McMillen, and he had another touchdown wiped out by a penalty in the opening week this season.
He knows how to get open in the end zone.
Check out Shawn Krest's full Panthers vs. Browns predictions.
Jets vs Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown has now scored 10+ touchdowns in three straight seasons, and he's off to an even faster start in 2026. Detroit's star receiver has scored twice in each of his first two games of the season, catching 19 passes for 209 yards in that span.
There's no reason to think St. Brown will get less of the ball against the Jets, who have been equally effective against the pass and the run. I'm taking St. Brown to score at up to 55% in Week 3.
Check out Ed Scimia's full Jets vs. Lions predictions.
Texans vs Colts: David Montgomery
The Colts own one of the worst red-zone defenses in the NFL, allowing teams to score at a near-70% clip when opponents reach their 20. This bodes well for Montgomery, who's being used the third-most in the red zone of any other running back in football, totaling six attempts for 19 yards and two touchdowns.
Suffice it to say, when they get down by the goal line, Montgomery is their man.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Texans vs. Colts predictions.
Chiefs vs Dolphins: Kenneth Walker III
Looking for a slam dunk? It's Kenneth Walker III.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP was denied three straight times on the 1-yard line a week ago, but Walker is in line to score at least once against one of the worst run defenses in football.
With the Chiefs likely in cruise control come the second half, look for them to lean on Walker and Emmett Johnson. If you're looking for more value, the team is looking to give the latter "more snaps," which could bode well this week in the touchdown department.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Chiefs vs. Dolphins predictions.
Titans vs Giants: Tony Pollard
The Giants have allowed three touchdowns and a monster 5.62 yards per rush to opposing running backs, and Titans rusher Tony Pollard is set for a heavy workload with backfield mate Tyjae Spears questionable with an ankle injury.
Pollard has handled 45.5% of the red-zone carries for the Titans, too, and he’s picked up a solid 3.05 yards after contact per attempt with a 79.5 PFF Elusive Rating through two games.
Check out Neil Parker's full Titans vs. Giants predictions.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Tee Higgins
The Bengals haven’t looked to Higgins in the red zone yet in 2026, and I’m anticipating that to change following his noted consecutive seasons with double-digit touchdowns.
Higgins garnered 19.8% and 19% of the red-zone targets the past two years, after all.
Check out Neil Parker's full Bengals vs. Steelers predictions.
Seahawks vs Commanders: Emanuel Wilson
New Seattle OC Brian Fleury showed his commitment to the ground game with 40 run plays in Week 2, and Emanuel Wilson got the bulk of the work (21 carries) with Jadarian Price sidelined (chest) and Zach Charbonnet on the PUP list.
Even if Price is back in the mix, this is nice value for Wilson to punch one in. He’s the power back of the available RBs, and he was trusted with seven red zone carries against Arizona last weekend.
Check out Tom Oldfield's full Seahawks vs. Commanders predictions.
Patriots vs Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Under head coach Liam Coen, we’ve witnessed Trevor Lawrence blossom into a true dual-threat QB.
Last season, he rushed for almost 360 yards and nine touchdowns, coming on 23 carries inside the red zone. That was third among all QBs in 2025, behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
The Patriots didn’t have to worry about slow-mo Rodgers making plays with his legs last weekend, but T-Law can break away when the pressure comes.
New England is blitzing at a high rate, so we could see Lawrence tuck and run if the Pats bring extra bodies inside the 20-yard line. He scored four touchdowns in matchups with Kansas City and Indianapolis, two defenses that finished Top 10 in blitz rate in 2025.
Touchdown probabilities for Lawrence range from 23% to 32% in Week 3, with most at 30%+.
Check out Jason Logan's full Patriots vs. Jaguars predictions.
Cardinals vs 49ers: Deebo Samuel
I'm sure Niners WR Deebo Samuel is happy to be back in the Bay Area after wasting away with the Washington Commanders last season.
Deebo's target share should increase with the injuries to San Francisco's wideouts. I'm guessing Evans plays this week, and Arizona uses its best outside corner to cover him.
According to Pro Football Focus, Cardinals nickelback Denzel Burke is lining up across from Samuel, who mostly lines up in the slot. Burke is 86th in pass coverage grade out of 91 qualified cornerbacks. Plus, Deebo gets carries and has 22 career rushing touchdowns.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Cardinals vs. 49ers predictions.
Vikings vs Buccaneers: Bucky Irving
Bucky's red-zone usage alone should make you want to invest in him to score against the Vikings. Minnesota is coughing up 100 yards per game on the ground, and when you add in Irving's volume both as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield, it's the perfect storm for him hitting pay dirt for the second time this season.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Vikings vs. Buccaneers predictions.
Ravens vs Cowboys: Mark Andrews
The Ravens’ receiving corps is banged up with injuries to Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane, upping TE Mark Andrews spot in the pass-catching pecking order.
Andrews remains heavily involved in Baltimore's attack, playing in more than 70% of snaps and running the 12th most routes among all TEs. He’s reeled in 10 of 13 targets for just under 100 yards in two games.
The Cowboys have allowed 11 receptions to opposing TEs, two of which were for scores. Touchdown probabilities put Andrews' chances of finding the end zone between 30% and 56%, with most models hovering around 40%.
Check out Jason Logan's full Ravens vs. Cowboys predictions.
Raiders vs Saints: Travis Etienne Jr.
New Orleans RB Travis Etienne Jr.'s versatility gives offensive-minded head coach Kellen Moore multiple ways to get him into scoring position. Etienne is a dual-threat running back with 26 career rushing touchdowns and eight receiving touchdowns, including a career-best six receiving scores last season.
Plus, Etienne is third on the Saints in receptions. With New Orleans' other talented pass catchers commanding attention, Etienne could get favorable one-on-one matchups against Las Vegas' linebackers.
Tommy Eichenberg and Quay Walker both have failing pass coverage grades, per PFF, while Etienne's receiving grade ranks seventh out of 54 qualified running backs.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Raiders vs. Saints predictions.
Rams vs Broncos: Blake Corum
Corum continues to gain McVay's trust, and his snap shares have been ticking up since the end of last season.
He almost drew a split with Williams in Week 2, playing 45% of snaps vs. New York. Despite that uptick, Corum has yet to see a red-zone carry.
That could change in Week 3. Williams remains the top option, but with RB3 Ronnie Rivers (who’s received two RZ carries) now on IR, the choices inside the 20-yard line are limited.
Corum scored six touchdowns in 2025, with five coming in the final six games of the schedule when his carries increased. His touchdown probabilities sit between 27% and 37% for SNF.
Check out Jason Logan's full Rams vs. Broncos predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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