Our football experts' NFL prop picks for Week 3 will get you set for an incredible Sunday of football!
Our best NFL picks are headlined by Christian McCaffrey prop.
NFL prop picks for Week 3
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Chiefsvs  Dolphins |
Kelce 50+ receiving yards 55% |
 Panthersvs  Browns |
Watson Under 199.5 passing yards 60% |
 Titansvs  Giants |
Pollard 14+ rushing attempts 52% |
 Patriotsvs  Jaguars |
Henderson 40+ rushing yards 53% |
 Chargersvs  Bills |
McConkey 55+ receiving yards 54% |
 Jetsvs  Lions |
Gibbs Over 130 rushing + receiving yards 51% |
 Texansvs  Colts |
Stroud 225+ passing yards 46% |
 Seahawksvs  Commanders |
Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 receiving yards 59% |
 Bengalsvs  Steelers |
Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns 50% |
 Cardinalsvs  49ers |
McCaffrey 5+ receptions 54% |
 Vikingsvs  Buccaneers |
Murray Under 199.5 passing yards 47% |
 Raidersvs  Saints |
Shough 15+ rushing yards 54% |
 Ravensvs  Cowboys |
Jackson 40+ rushing yards 53% |
 Ramsvs  Broncos |
Stafford 250+ passing yards — No 53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NFL prop picks for Week 3
Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
The Dolphins have struggled to cover tight ends this season, with George Kittle posting 80 yards and a touchdown last week and the combination of Michael Mayer and Jack Bech hauling in nine catches for 55 yards and a score in the opener.
Considering the Chiefs are consistently scheming Kelce open, expect him to clear this number for the third straight week.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Chiefs vs. Dolphins predictions.
Panthers vs. Browns: Deshaun Watson Under 199.5 passing yards
It's a long shot, but as long as it's over 15%, we'll roll the dice. Watson's grip on the starting job was weak heading into the season.
While last week's win bought him time, he didn't exactly take over, throwing half of his 30 pass attempts to tight ends or backs. He'll be making his return to Cleveland in the Browns' home opener, and fans won't be kind, especially if he struggles early.
If he's under pressure and throws an early pick, he might get the hook in favor of Shedeur Sanders.
Check out Shawn Krest's full Panthers vs. Browns predictions.
Titans vs. Giants: Tony Pollard 14+ rushing attempts
Expect the Titans to establish the run with Pollard, as the Giants have allowed the fifth-highest rushing success rate, and the howling winds in the forecast will make it difficult to attack through the air.
With Spears questionable, additional touches will be allotted to Pollard. I also value the third-year Titan handling 14 carries in Week 2, despite Tennessee having possession for just 23:35 against Philadelphia.
Check out Neil Parker's full Titans vs. Giants predictions.
Patriots vs. Jaguars: TreVeyon Henderson 40+ rushing yards
TreVeyon Henderson made his season debut for New England in Week 2, garnering 60% of snaps after his backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled early on.
Henderson finished with 16 carries for 76 yards and while the touches could be better balanced in Week 3, head coach Mike Vrabel didn’t dismiss Henderson’s involvement.
With the Jaguars pass rush a problem, the New England run game needs to take heat off Maye and avoid long third downs.
Jacksonville isn’t as strong versus the run, including the No. 28 rating in run stop win rate at ESPN.
Measuring projections between the Pats two RBs, Henderson holds the most value. His forecasts lean toward 40+ rushing yards with some as high as 57 gains on the ground in Week 3.
Check out Jason Logan's full Patriots vs. Jaguars predictions.
Chargers vs. Bills: Ladd McConkey 55+ receiving yards
With the Bills allowing the fifth-highest EPA per dropback in the second half, Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey has my attention. He’s been a full participant in practice all week and has a solid 14.6 yards per reception and 13.8 aDoT through two games.
McConkey has also garnered a high-end 23.9% of the team’s air yards with an 18.9% target share. Plus, Buffalo has surrendered the ninth-highest yards per target (9.16) to opposing wideouts through two weeks.
Check out Neil Parker's full Chargers vs. Bills predictions.
Jets vs. Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 130 rushing + receiving yards
Jahmyr Gibbs continues to be one of the most productive all-around offensive weapons in the NFL. A year after generating 1,839 total yards from scrimmage, he's rushed for 208 yards and added 91 more through the air in the first two weeks of 2026.
The Jets have been stingy on defense, allowing only 197.0 yards per game. But Gibbs and the Lions are going to push those numbers higher. New York has allowed 4.1 yards per rush, which Gibbs can take advantage of.
I like Gibbs to go for 130+ total yards at up to 50%.
Check out Ed Scimia's full Jets vs. Lions predictions.
Texans vs. Colts: CJ Stroud 225+ passing yards
The Colts' defense continues to leak, especially its secondary, which has allowed back-to-back 300-yard days from opposing quarterbacks. Stroud is off to a hot start himself, throwing for 627 across his first two games - not bad. Indy is allowing nearly 14 yards per pass completion, which should put us in a great spot to cash this come Sunday.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Texans vs. Colts predictions.
Seahawks vs. Commanders: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 88.5 receiving yards
As long as Smith-Njigba is on the field, the Seattle quarterback questions really don't matter. JSN is off to a flying start, boasting 277 receiving yards and four touchdowns through two games, and he cleared this O/U number in 13 of his 17 regular-season outings last season.
JSN presents a massive mismatch against a Commanders secondary that’s leaked seven passing TDs already this season. Oh, and CeeDee Lamb grabbed eight passes for 153 yards and two scores against Washington last weekend.
Check out Tom Oldfield's full Seahawks vs. Commanders predictions.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Burrow has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of his past eight games for 18 total dating back to 2025, and the Steelers have backfield question marks.
Pittsburgh cornerback Jamel Dean practiced Thursday after missing Wednesday’s session with an ankle injury, safety DeShon Elliott is on injured reserve, and Joey Porter Jr.'s status is clouded by contract disputes after missing the first two weeks of the season.
Check out Neil Parker's full Bengals vs. Steelers predictions.
Cardinals vs. 49ers: Christian McCaffrey 5+ receptions
I wouldn't go higher than six catches for Niners RB Christian McCaffrey, but this fits into my previous analysis for the full-game Under when I said there could be a lot of check-downs and mentioned San Francisco's cluster injuries to its WR corps.
CMC has a team-high 12 targets this season and led the 49ers with 102 catches last season.
He caught five balls in Week 1 and cleared this number in 14 of his 19 regular-season and playoff games last season.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Cardinals vs. 49ers predictions.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers: Kyler Murray Under 199.5 passing yards
Murray is expected to return under center after Carson Wentz guided Minnesota to a pair of victories in his absence. Murray managed just 11 snaps in the season opener before exiting with a concussion, and his return comes against a challenging Buccaneers defense that ranks 11th in total defense.
I'm giving this defense the benefit of the doubt to shut down a quarterback returning from concussion and coming off the worst season of his career.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Vikings vs. Buccaneers predictions.
Raiders vs. Saints: Tyler Shough 15+ rushing yards
I'd be willing to play Shough's rushing prop to 17+ rushing yards. He rushed for at least 18 yards in six of his 11 career starts, including 23 yards last week against the Ravens.
New Orleans has the fourth-highest passing rate in the NFL, which gives Shough more opportunities to scramble.
Meanwhile, with so many capable pass catchers to account for, Las Vegas may be reluctant to dedicate a defender to spying Shough. That means whenever the Raiders play man coverage, Shough can take off if no one is open.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Raiders vs. Saints predictions.
Ravens vs. Cowboys: Lamar Jackson 40+ rushing yards
A dual-threat QB like Lamar Jackson can roll through that Dallas defense like a carnival float.
The Cowboys can’t contain fleet-footed quarterbacks, having allowed a league-high 126 rushing yards to the likes of Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels – the latter of whom only played the first half (69 rushing yards).
Jackson’s rushing efforts have been modest through two games, amassing 40 and 34 yards in the opening two games. However, he told reporters he’s still a big part of the running playbook heading into Week 3.
The Cowboys’ defensive shortcomings are amplified by an injury to top run-stopping LB DeMarvion Overshown, who is likely to sit out Sunday. Dallas could also be down two free safeties.
Lamar’s Week 3 forecasts vary widely, ranging from 31.5 to 51 rushing yards. My projection comes out to 44 yards but leans toward the higher end given the matchup.
Check out Jason Logan's full Ravens vs. Cowboys predictions.
Rams vs. Broncos: Matthew Stafford 250+ passing yards — No
Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford not only faces one of the stingiest secondaries in the league but could do so without some of his top targets.
Wide receivers Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington are questionable along with ailments to tight ends Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson.
Denver is a tough team to pass against, even when you’re receiving corps is healthy. The Broncos rate Top 12 in many advanced pass defense metrics, including opponent success rate per dropback.
Stafford may not have to do much down field if Denver can’t slow the Rams’ rushing game. The Broncos have been bullied on the ground in the first two contest and we could see Stafford handing off at a higher rate.
His Week 3 projections don’t go beyond 250 yards with my number sit short of 240 passing yards from Stafford on Sunday night.
Check out Jason Logan's full Rams vs. Broncos predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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