My Week 9 NFL trends feature the Bears thriving under the primetime spotlight, the Seahawks making a habit of bullying the Cardinals, and a Chargers offense that might be setting football back 50 years.
Let's dig into three of my favorite betting angles this week as we try to turn a profit with our NFL picks.
Best NFL trends for Week 9
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Trend | Pick |
|---|---|
 TB vs  CHI• CHI is 8-0 ATS in primetime |
|
 ARI vs  SEA• SEA is 9-1 ATS vs ARI |
|
 HOU vs  LAC• LAC is 11-1-1 to the Under |
Under 40.5
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Buccaneers vs Bears trends
Trend: Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight night games
- Why it matters for Week 9:
Chicago has been money under the bright lights, and Sunday's matchup with Tampa Bay gives the Bears another opportunity to cash.
Week 9 pick: Bears -6.5
Like many, I do my best work during daytime hours, but Ben Johnson's Chicago Bears have been an ATM for anyone backing them at night, covering in eight straight games by an average of 8.3 points!
This impressive run includes a 5-0 ATS record at home, along with primetime wins by 20, 6, and 17 points this season.
It's been a weird season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rebounded from an 0-4 start by winning three of their last four games. However, they've faced a pretty light schedule, and this road matchup with a surging Super Bowl contender is easily their toughest test yet.
Maybe you're thinking "letdown spot" for Chicago, but doubting these Bears under Ben Johnson has rarely been a profitable strategy, as they've gone 19-7-1 ATS since he became head coach.
Cardinals vs Seahawks trends
Trend: Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Cardinals
- Why it matters for Week 9:
Seattle has dominated Arizona for years, and the statistical mismatch suggests another blowout could be coming.
Week 9 pick: Seahawks -9.5
If ever there was a get-right, bounce-back spot, this is it. If ever there was an extreme letdown spot, this might also be it!
Despite a disappointing 4-4 record, the Seattle Seahawks have been strong statistically, ranking third in net yards per play, while Arizona ranks dead last.
The Arizona Cardinals also go from facing perhaps the NFL's worst defense in Dallas, indoors, to facing maybe the league's best defense outdoors in Seattle in November. That's quite the adjustment.
Digging into this 10-game ATS tear, seven were double-digit Seattle victories, including a 22-point win at home last November and a 24-point beatdown in Arizona in Week 2, when the Cardinals managed just 151 total yards.
With Drew Lock stepping in for Sam Darnold, Seattle's spread has dropped from -11.5 to -9.5, but I'm not overly concerned. Lock started that Week 2 beatdown in Arizona, completing 19 of 26 passes for 235 yards, three TDs, and zero interceptions. He's appeared in just two games this season, but he's been excellent in limited action, while Darnold's play has taken a significant step backward. I'm not convinced this quarterback change is the downgrade the betting market suggests.
Now outside the playoff picture, Seattle can't afford to take anyone lightly.
Gardner Minshew looked like a superstar against Dallas, but let's see how that mustache handles a defense that actually tackles people.
Texans vs Chargers trends
Trend: Chargers' last 13 games are 11-1-1 to the Under
- Why it matters for Week 9:
The Chargers can't score, their defense has been respectable, and Houston brings another strong Under trend into this matchup.
Week 9 pick: Under 40.5
What a disgrace the Los Angeles Chargers have been this season. Let's take advantage!
During this 13-game Under avalanche, their games have averaged just 36.3 combined points. Somehow, the offense is getting worse, scoring a grand total of 15 points over its last two games.
For the season, Los Angeles ranks 25th or worse in explosive play rate, red-zone touchdown rate, and third-down conversion rate.
It hasn't been as bad defensively, with the Chargers ranking inside the top 10 in both opponent red-zone TD rate and third-down conversion rate.
Of course, it takes two to tango on a totals wager, and Houston is a terrific dance partner. The Houston Texans have gone Under in seven of their last eight road games, averaging just 34.5 combined points in those contests. In their two true road games this season, they've held opponents to 19 and three points.
At this rate, Mike McDaniel might want to leave his Chargers offensive coordinator stint off his resume, which he might be dusting off very soon.
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Other notable NFL trends for Week 9
(Trend ratings: 🟢 = good, 🔴 = avoid)
🟢 The Rams' last 15 road games are 13-2 to the Over
Back Over 47.5 vs. the Commanders
🟢 Las Vegas' last six games are 6-0 to the Over
Back Over 52.5 vs. the 49ers
🔴 Minnesota is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Avoid Vikings moneyline vs. the Bills
🔴 Carolina is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a straight-up loss
Avoid Panthers +3 vs. the Broncos
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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