Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are back in prime time, hosting a Washington Commanders team sans Jayden Daniels as a double-digit favorite at Arrowhead Stadium.
Commanders second-string QB Marcus Mariota will have his full complement of receivers, but our Commanders vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks on Monday, October 27 expect him to plunge into the end zone himself.
Kickoff comes your way at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
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Commanders vs Chiefs prediction
Commanders vs Chiefs Best bet: Marcus Mariota anytime touchdown (+400)
Quarterback rushing touchdowns have quietly become a profitable angle on Monday Night Football. Through seven weeks, six QB scores have cashed at prices ranging from +180 to +600 — good for a 7-15 record straight up and +13.9 units over 22 single bets.
Patrick Mahomes at +300 is a fine look — he’s running more than ever with four rushing touchdowns already this season — but Marcus Mariota at +400 offers better value, even in a tougher matchup. In his two starts this year, Mariota has eight carries for 80 yards and a score, and he’s previously been priced shorter at +280 and +360 in similar spots.
The Kansas City Chiefs allowed Trevor Lawrence to rush 10 times for 54 yards and two touchdowns the last time they appeared on Monday night, and Mahomes also added one of his own in that game. With Washington entering as a double-digit underdog, Mariota should be forced to drop back often, creating plenty of scramble opportunities.
This number feels inflated due to matchup perception, and there’s solid value down to +300 on a Mariota.
Commanders vs Chiefs MNF same-game parlay
Adding both QBs for a score might seem greedy, but over the 11 MNF games this season, it has cashed twice, including the Week 5 Chiefs' loss to the Jaguars, when Mahomes and Lawrence scored for a similar payout on the SGP.
Mahomes has scored in four of his seven games this year, and with the Chiefs passing a ton near the goal line, he is always a threat, even with a big lead.
Mariota had a TD in his first of two starts this year and added another last year in two games with 16 carries. He likes to run, and the Chiefs have to respect Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin.
Commanders vs Chiefs SGP +1600
- Marcus Mariota anytime touchdown
- Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Prime Time Keepers
Adding the Mariota rushing total to this doesn't push it much (to +2400), but there is going to be some serious negative game script for the QB, and a couple of 10-yard gains to the sticks are simple.
Tyquan Thornton might not have as much volume as he did earlier this year, but the Chiefs pass at the highest rate in football, and Mahomes loves to spread it around, and if Thornton is getting a catch, it's going for over nine yards. He leads the KC WRs with a 37% air-yard share.
Commanders vs Chiefs SGP +4500
- Marcus Mariota anytime touchdown
- Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
- Tyquan Thornton Over 8.5 receiving yards
- Mariota Over 23.5 rushing yards
Commanders vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Commanders +10.5 (-110) | Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Commanders +500 | Chiefs -700
- Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) | Under 48 (-110)
Commanders vs Chiefs game predictions
Commanders vs Chiefs moneyline prediction
The Chiefs are coming off a 31-0 shutout of the Raiders in a divisional game, the first regular-season shutout for Andy Reid. KC entered that game as a 13.5-point favorite. Betting on the Washington ML is a tough look, but the Jags did knock off Mahomes on MNF three weeks ago as a 3.5-point dog. However, Mariota will not have birthday luck with him on Monday night. I'm sure there are a few ML parlays that need the Chiefs.
Commanders vs Chiefs spread prediction
The Chiefs closed as a season-high 13.5-point favorites last week at home vs. the Raiders and had no issues covering, even with Mahomes not playing the fourth quarter. I understand it's Mahomes vs. a backup QB, but Washington still has plenty of pieces offensively to backdoor this.
The 44-22 loss Washington took last week might be factoring into the KC love. This is as high as we see KC, and maybe as low as the market confidence is in Washington. This was KC -5.5 on the lookahead with Jayden Daniels under center. Is the QB move worth a full TD?
Commanders vs Chiefs Over/Under prediction
This total was 50.5 on the lookahead with Daniels projected to start, but the move to Mariota has pushed this down to as low as 46.5, with a mid-week push on the Over that drove it back up to a flat 48 on Friday. The weather and wind shouldn't be an issue either. Neither team has been profitable on the Over this season, but this Washington defense has given up 24 or more points in all but one game this year.
Commanders vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Since last season, Patrick Mahomes is 1-6 ATS as a TD favorite or more, with that one ATS win coming the previous week vs. Las Vegas. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Commanders vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Monday, October 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN, ABC |
Learn how to live stream Commanders vs. Chiefs for free tonight.
Commanders vs Chiefs latest injuries
Kareem Hunt entered Week 8 managing a minor ankle and knee issue sustained last game, which briefly sent him to the sideline before he returned. The Chiefs’ initial report listed him as a non-participant Thursday, upgraded to limited Friday, and then a full participant Saturday. Kansas City’s official Week 8 injury report shows no game designation for Hunt after that full Saturday session, indicating he’s healthy enough to go.
Barring an unexpected setback, Hunt is expected to suit up tonight against Washington on Monday Night Football. In practical terms, that means his normal rotational role behind Isiah Pacheco should be intact, with situational work in short yardage and red-zone packages.
Commanders vs Chiefs weather
Expect a cool, overcast evening. Daytime temps top out near the upper-50s°F, sliding into the low-50s by kickoff and holding there through the game. A low cloud deck lingers with a damp feel; while most showers look confined to earlier in the day, patchy mist or a stray sprinkle can’t be ruled out. Visibility should be fine, and any breeze looks modest.
The cool, dense air can trim a few yards off deep balls and long field-goal attempts, and the moisture plus Arrowhead’s natural-grass surface could make footing slick, favoring patient, ball-control offenses and backs with good balance. If the ball stays a bit wet, expect coaches to lean into quick-game concepts, screens, and inside zone, and for defenses with a strong pass rush to benefit from longer developing routes being tougher to hit. Special teams may play conservative on longer attempts, nudging strategy toward pin-deep punts over 50+ yard kicks.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
More Commanders vs Chiefs picks for Monday Night Football
- Commanders vs. Chiefs props
- Commanders vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Commanders vs. Chiefs computer picks
- Commanders vs. Chiefs same game parlay picks
- Patrick Mahomes odds and props
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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