The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates begin a three-game set tonight, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at PNC Park.
My Phillies vs Pirates predictions are targeting Pittsburgh to continue their winning ways against Philly with Braxton Ashcraft on the mound.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 16.
Who will win Phillies vs Pirates today: -127 at Polymarket
The Pittsburgh Pirates have yet to face the Philadelphia Phillies in 2026, but they are riding a three-game winning streak against them dating back to last season. The Bucs also send one of their top arms to the hill in Braxton Ashcraft, who has been spectacular alongside Paul Skenes.
Ashcraft owns a 2.77 ERA, and he's given up only one run across his last two starts. Ashcraft's last outing at PNC Park was 7.2 scoreless frames against the Cincinnati Reds. The righty has a 3.42 ERA at home, and he's throwing the baseball with a lot of confidence.
The Phils also have one of the worst offenses in the sport, and they didn't score more than three runs in any game in their most recent series against the Boston Red Sox.
Aaron Nola, meanwhile, has a 5.48 ERA, and his ERA also sits at 4.94 on the road. The Pirates haven't had a ton of success against him, but Pittsburgh is sixth in runs scored, and they just scored seven runs on Thursday.
COVERS INTEL: Nola has a career-worst .432 xSLG so far this season, and he's surrendered 11 earned runs across his last three road starts. 
Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-122 at Polymarket)
Three of the last four meetings between these two have cashed the Under in runs, and there are signs that Nola is trending in the right direction, which strengthens this play.
The righty has given up just three earned runs across his previous two appearances. I do expect the Bucs' impressive offense to give him some trouble, but he's shown more composure lately, which should help him limit serious damage.
Philadelphia's bullpen has also been better lately, and they've hit the Under in four straight contests. As for Pittsburgh, Ashcraft's consistency is crystal clear, and he often brings his best each week.
While he hasn't faced this Phillies lineup a lot, he's only allowed more than two earned runs once this season.
With both starters in good form and Pittsburgh's pen also holding their own lately, this contest screams value with the Under.
- ML/RL bets: 10-11, -4.71 units
- Over/Under bets: 12-9, +1.35 units
Phillies vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +122 | Pirates -127
- Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-178) | Pirates -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)
Phillies vs Pirates trend
Four of the last five meetings between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have cashed the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Pirates.
How to watch Phillies vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Friday, May 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia, Sportsnet Pittsburgh |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (2-3, 5.14 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 2.77 ERA) |
Phillies vs Pirates latest injuries
Phillies vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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