A Thursday night clash between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers kicks off Week 3 in the NFL.
The 49ers have looked like world beaters in the first two weeks, winning by a total score of 60-30 in two road games. McCaffrey leads the league in rushing with 268 yards on the ground and will get to highlight his talent in primetime for the first time this season.
The 49ers are big home favorites in the Week 3 odds, but will McCaffrey be able to continue his torrid run against the Giants stout defensive line?
Christian McCaffrey TNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Christian McCaffrey TNF prop pick
Longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-114)
Despite allowing the most points in the league through two games, the New York Giants actually have not been that bad in yards allowed. They rank 15th in the NFL with 644 yards allowed. However, they rank 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed and the 49ers are the worst possible team to face in that area.
In Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Christian McCaffrey had 22 carries for 152 yards and three catches for 17 yards. Last week against the Los Angeles Rams, he had 20 carries for 116 yards and three catches for 19 yards. That marks the first time since Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2021 season that McCaffrey has had 20 or more carries in consecutive games.
Given his injury history, it would not be a surprise to see a smaller workload for CMC on Thursday night after the short rest. He has never gone three consecutive games in his career with 20 or more rush attempts. However, the shorter workload does not mean he will not break a long run out.
McCaffrey had a 51-yard rush last week and a 65-yard rush in Week 1. In fact, you have to go back to Week 16 of last year to find a game where he did not break a run for double-digit yardage. He is the definition of a home-run threat.
The Giants allowed a 22-yard run to James Conner last week and a 25-yard run to Tony Pollard in Week 1. That game against the Cowboys was a small workload for Pollard given the nature of the game and yet he still broke a long one. I think this game sets up similarly for McCaffrey.
While the 49ers will start to manage CMC’s carries a little on the short rest, I do still have full faith in him breaking out a long run at some point on Thursday night. His Over for longest rush is my best bet of the night.
Prop: Longest rush Over 15.5 yards
Christian McCaffrey TNF same-game parlay
Unfortunately, our best prop bet is unable to be added to our same game parlay. However, we can still use that prop to create a good SGP with other props.
We will start with total receptions for CMC. He's caught six passes through two weeks on eight targets. A shortened workload will also mean fewer touches in the passing game. Under 4.5 receptions is too good to pass up.
There are safe alternate rushing totals for McCaffrey to reach without needing too many carries to reach. The 70+ rushing total fits well here, as even in games like last year against the Giants where he had 15 carries for 102 yards, he can still rack up the yards on fewer carries.
The Giants have allowed five first-half touchdowns through two games. The 49ers have scored four first-half touchdowns through two games. I like CMC to find the endzone early in this game as well.
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