Expert Prop Picks for NFL Week 1

Ready to cash in on Week 1? 

Led by Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield, our expert props highlight the slate’s best market edges—targeting elite volume, red-zone usage, and game-changing perimeter matchups.

So don't miss out as we get you all set with our best NFL picks before the action kicks off.

NFL prop picks for Week 1

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Buccaneers vs Bengals	Mayfield 15+ rushing yards 57%
Saints vs Lions	Goff 23+ passing completions 53%
Jets vs Titans	Ward 10+ rushing yards 53%
Ravens vs Colts	Allen o25 receiving yards 60%
Falcons vs Steelers	Robinson 20+ rushing yards 52%
Bears vs Panthers	Waller o1.5 receptions 62%
Browns vs Jaguars	Jeudy 3+ receptions 62%
Bills vs Texans	Stroud 20+ passing completions 54%
Dolphins vs Raiders	Cousins o19.5 completions 55%
Packers vs Vikings	Murray 2+ passing TDs 47%
Commanders vs Eagles	Diggs 40+ receiving yards 55%
Cardinals vs Chargers	Wilson o44.5 receiving yards 53%
Cowboys vs Giants	Dart 30+ rushing yards 53%
Broncos vs Chiefs	Mahomes 15+ rushing yards 32%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert NFL prop picks for Week 1

Buccaneers vs Bengals: Baker Mayfield 15+ rushing yards (57%)

After a semi-public feud, Baker Mayfield just signed a three-year, $165 million extension Wednesday. Baker will respond by playing his tail off this weekend and he's low-key more mobile than the market realizes.

Mayfield has averaged 22.4 rushing yards per game over his last two regular seasons and 18.0 yards per game in his last two playoff appearances. Baker played through injury most of last season and he still ran for +16 yards in 10 games.

Let's bet on a happier and healthier Mayfield "leaving it all on the field" Sunday. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Buccaneers vs. Bengals predictions.

Saints vs Lions: Jared Goff 23+ passing completions (53%)

Goff tied for a league-high 80.2 adjusted completion percentage last year, which included a 69.0 completion percentage at Ford Field. 

This is also a favourable matchup, as New Orleans ranked eighth in run defense DVOA and allowed the second-lowest rushing success rate in 2025, while generating pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the league.

With Detroit sending out a reshuffled and new-look offensive line, I expect Goff to attack New Orleans through the air with quick, underneath passes and pile up completions early and often.

I recommend playing this prop to 56.5%.

Check out Neil Parker's full Saints vs. Lions predictions.

Jets vs Titans: Cam Ward 10+ rushing yards (53%)

Even though I'm a "Cam Ward Guy," he needs to improve dramatically in his second season to avoid the "bust" label. That pressure should equal more desperation, which could lead to Ward scrambling.

Granted, he only ran for 10+ yards in six games last season, but Ward had 2+ attempts in 12 games. If he takes off twice against the Jets, I'll take my chances with him clearing this number.

Lastly, as the New York Giants' head coach from 2022-25, Daboll designed many running plays for former QB Daniel Jones. I'm expecting Daboll to use Ward's mobility similarly this season. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Jets vs. Titans predictions.

Ravens vs Colts: Keenan Allen Over 25 receiving yards (60%)

Allen had some off-field troubles recently, but he's expected to play Sunday, and the six-time Pro Bowler gives Jones another reliable target. At Kalshi, Allen's total of 25+ receiving yards feels like a steal. He averaged 45.7 yards per game with the Chargers last season while catching 81 passes.

He won't be a focal point in this offense, but Allen remains a reliable possession receiver who can work underneath and move the chains. Baltimore's pass defense was vulnerable last season, which should give the veteran enough opportunities to clear this number in Week 1.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Ravens vs. Colts predictions.

Falcons vs Steelers: Brian Robinson 20+ rushing yards (52%)

Because I'm expecting the Falcons to lean on the running game and Brian Robinson to handle six to eight carries, this prop has my attention to 53.5%. 

The former Commander has plenty of upside in a secondary role after sporting 3.1 yards per carry after contact in 2025.

Check out Neil Parker's full Falcons vs. Steelers predictions.

Bears vs Panthers: Darren Waller Over 1.5 receptions (62%)

The Panthers picked up the veteran tight end during training camp, and he didn't play in any preseason games. He's showing speed in practice, including a reported 20.8 mph radar gun reading on a route at the start of game week.

His catch radius and burst speed are both above the 90th percentile in the league, so he has plenty left in the tank. With second-year McMillen, unproven Coker, and borderline bust Xavier Leggette as the top receiving options, Waller should get plenty of attention as Young looks to get rid of the ball quickly behind a shaky line.

He had three or more targets in eight of his nine games last season, and should see that number go up with the Panthers.

Check out Shawn Krest's full Bears vs. Panthers predictions.

Browns vs Jaguars: Jerry Jeudy 3+ receptions (62%)

The Browns drafted a pair of highly-regarded wideouts during training camp this summer -- KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, both of whom have performed well throughout training camp and the preseason. That has left Jerry Jeudy, last year's top Cleveland wideout, as an overlooked option in the team's offense heading into Week 1.

HC Todd Monken is moving Jeudy from X to Z in the team's passing attack in 2026, which should create more free releases for him and opportunities for easy catches in space. Following the draft in April, GM Andrew Berry referred to Jeudy as the team's "bell cow."

Deshaun Watson leaves a lot to be desired at the quarterback position, but if he's even remotely effective on Sunday, Jeudy should see a healthy amount of targets in a role that should maximize his strengths.

Check out Nick Galaida's full Browns vs. Jaguars predictions.

Bills vs Texans: CJ Stroud 20+ passing completions (54%)

When we last left C.J. Stroud, he was freezing his ass off in a rotten showing at New England in the Divisional Round. Before that, he was in chilly Pittsburgh for a one-sided win in the Wild Card.

Stroud completed 20 and 21 passes in those postseason outings, which are keeping his Week 1 completions total low. 

Stroud has better protection, more options at receiver, and more importantly, he’s playing at home on the fast clean track of NRG Stadium in Week 1. 

Stroud’s career indoor/outdoor splits are dramatic, with the fourth-year QB seeing his completion rate slip to 59% outside versus 66% indoors. He averages more than 21 completions per game at home against 18.3 in open-air venues.

Forecasts all sit north of 20 completions versus Buffalo with a high of 22. That gives a higher ceiling for this prop and value in the alt markets at 22+.

Check out Jason Logan's full Bills vs. Texans predictions.

Dolphins vs Raiders: Kirk Cousins Over 19.5 completions (55%)

One of my biggest criticisms of Cousins throughout his career is that he doesn't take enough chances. Obviously, you don't want your QB turning the ball over, but Cousins will consistently throw short of the first-down marker on third down. 

While that doesn't help the Raiders, or his previous teams, win, it does help us with this prop. Moreover, Cousins gets rid of the ball even quicker now that he's 38 years old, so I'm envisioning a bunch of check-downs to running backs in the flat. Plus, the Dolphins don't exactly have a lockdown secondary. 

Cousins completed 21+ passes in four of his eight starts with the Falcons last season.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Dolphins vs. Raiders predictions.

Packers vs Vikings: Kyler Murray 2+ passing touchdowns (47%)

Murray has a good idea of the defense he’ll face from former coach/Packers DC Jonathan Gannon in Week 1. He played it every day in practice for the past three years.

On top of being able to find Jefferson and Jordan Addison for deep TD connections, Murray’s ability to make plays outside the pocket gives O’Connell a new twist inside the 20-yard line. He has excellent jump ball options in burly WR Jauan Jennings and TE T.J. Hockenson.

Projections tick as high as 1.6 TD passes and Murray isn’t here just to hand the ball off. I’d play his 2+ touchdowns up to 48%.

Check out Jason Logan's full Packers vs. Vikings predictions.

Commanders vs Eagles: Stefon Diggs 40+ receiving yards (55%)

I’m anticipating Stefon Diggs serving as a security blanket for his quarterback early and often in the season opener, and with Washington a healthy underdog, the Commanders won’t have the luxury of abandoning the passing attack.

With teammate Terry McLaurin (14.1 aDoT) likely to continue operating as more of a downfield threat, Diggs’ underneath route tree will be all the more important to mitigate the Philly pass rush.

Diggs was also sneaky good last season. He finished 14th in PFF receiving grade while pacing the league in reception percentage among wideouts with at least 50 targets.

This prop is in play to 42.5 yards.

Check out Neil Parker's full Commanders vs. Eagles predictions.

Cardinals vs Chargers: Michael Wilson Over 44.5 receiving yards (53%)

Wilson had a breakout season in 2025, catching 78 balls for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Wilson was Arizona's highest-graded receiver last season: 28th out of 128 qualifying NFL wideouts.

He is lining up across from LAC's lowest-graded cornerback, Cam Hart, who ranked 66th out of 112 NFL corners. Finally, just like Brissett and Arizona's offense, Wilson stat-padded when they were getting blown out and I see that happening again Sunday. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Cardinals vs. Chargers predictions.

Cowboys vs Giants: Jaxson Dart 30+ rushing yards (53%)

It won’t just be the Cowboys’ pass rush making Dart feel uncomfortable in Week 1. New OC Matt Nagy wants Dart to take more snaps under center. 

That’s a big change from his college days and first year in the pros, with Dart primarily working out of the shotgun. Taking away that buffer will be a hard habit to break for the second-year QB.

Throw at him a Dallas front that ranked tops in pressure rate last season, and Dart will lose his cool and opt to tuck and run rather than stand in the pocket. 

On top of getting his number called for carries, my projections sit at 32+ yards with some models as high as 36 rushing yards from Dart.

Check out Jason Logan's full Cowboys vs. Giants predictions.

Broncos vs Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards (54%)

The projection is calling for 23.03 rushing yards, and a total I'm playing to 18.5.

If you’re Denver DC Vance Joseph, your game plan has to make Patrick Mahomes mobile and test that rebuilt knee, and that isn’t a debate. The Chiefs are going to want to run the ball with their new toy in Kenneth Walker and an undrafted rookie tackle protecting Mahomes' backside, but when Mahomes drops back, his instinct will kick in, his knee will be an afterthought, and he can top this prop in one third-and-long carry.

The injured knee is already priced into Mahomes' rushing total, which sits at 14.5 yards when it was 24 yards on average last year and as high as 30.5. He won't want to run, but the QB does not get to dictate that vs. a defense that might be getting in the backfield all game. 

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