Expert Touchdown Picks for NFL Week 1

Finding end zone value in Week 1 comes down to tracking high-volume usage and lethal matchup advantages.

Saquon Barkley headlines the early-season card as a focal point in Philadelphia's red-zone attack, while George Pickens brings immediate big-play potential as a primary downfield threat.

Whether you're targeting heavy-workload lead backs or explosive perimeter targets, our expert NFL picks isolate the sharpest market edges to finish off this thrilling slate.

NFL touchdown picks for Week 1

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Buccaneers vs Bengals	Bucky Irving 43%
Saints vs Lions	Amon-Ra St. Brown 47%
Jets vs Titans	Wan'Dale Robinson 21%
Ravens vs Colts	Derrick Henry 62%
Falcons vs Steelers	Kyle Pitts 21%
Bears vs Panthers	Colston Loveland 40%
Browns vs Jaguars	Brenton Strange 30%
Bills vs Texans	Dalton Kincaid 22%
Dolphins vs Raiders	Malik Willis 24%
Packers vs Vikings	Justin Jefferson 38%
Commanders vs Eagles	Saquon Barkley 54%
Cardinals vs Chargers	Omarion Hampton 58%
Cowboys vs Giants	George Pickens 40%
Broncos vs Chiefs	Jaylen Waddle 32%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert NFL touchdown picks for Week 1

Buccaneers vs Bengals: Bucky Irving (43%)

Cincinnati's defense gave up the 10th-most rushing touchdowns last season and the second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs.

Like most of his teammates, Bucky Irving had an injury-plagued 2025, but the Bucs moved on from former Rachaad White this offseason, which should mean more snaps for Irving. 

When he was healthy in his rookie season (2024), Irving scored eight rushing touchdowns. He had a 55.1% rushing success rate and a 65.4% receiving success rate two years ago, too. 

With former WR Mike Evans no longer on the team, I'm betting on Irving getting a bigger role in Tampa Bay's offense this season, and I like his plus-money payout (43%) odds for an anytime touchdown.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Buccaneers vs. Bengals predictions.

Saints vs Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (47%)

St. Brown garnered a 38.9% target share in the red zone last year, which translated into pacing all receivers in red-zone targets and receptions. 

He also finished third in PFF receiving grade last season, so I’m anticipating the rejigged New Orleans secondary to have fits trying to cover St. Brown. In particular, second-year defensive back Jonas Sanker is set to debut as the slot corner after playing safety as a rookie in 2025, and St. Brown lined up in the slot on 55.7% of his offensive snaps.

This touchdown prop is in play to 50%.

Check out Neil Parker's full Saints vs. Lions predictions.

Jets vs Titans: Wan'Dale Robinson (21%)

I like this number (+397 payout) because Robinson had a team-high 140 targets while playing for Daboll and the Giants over the last two seasons. Robinson had 185 receptions in 2024-25 and seven touchdowns.

He is Tennessee's slot receiver, and Pro Football Focus graded NYJ's projected starting slot cornerback, Jarvis Brownlee Jr., 101st out of 112 qualifying corners. Plus, the Jets had the worst efficiency vs. slot receivers, according to FTN's 2026 almanac.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Jets vs. Titans predictions.

Ravens vs Colts: Derrick Henry (62%)

Henry remains one of Baltimore's highest-usage weapons, especially near the goal line. He scored 16 rushing touchdowns last season, with 10 coming from inside the 20-yard line.

The former Alabama star has also made a habit of balling out from the jump. He's found the end zone in two of the last three seasons in Week 1.  

Henry's physical running style makes him extremely difficult to stop in short-yardage situations, and if Baltimore gets into the red zone, expect the veteran to get plenty of opportunities to finish the drive.

Play up to 65%.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Ravens vs. Colts predictions.

Falcons vs Steelers: Kyle Pitts (21%)

Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is a matchup nightmare and grabbed a career-high 88 receptions while conveniently playing a career-high 88% of the offensive snaps in 2025. 

The Steelers also allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position last season, including 11 touchdowns, so this is a sneaky matchup because of Pitts’ versatility in the passing attack. He lined up in the slot on 34.7% of his offensive snaps and out wide on another 20.3%. 

This Pitts touchdown recommendation is in play to 23.5%. Covers NFL betting analyst Josh Inglis also highlighted Rico Dowdle in his NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props for Week 1.

Check out Neil Parker's full Falcons vs. Steelers predictions.

Bears vs Panthers: Colston Loveland (40%)

With the Panthers' line and linebackers making running room scarce, and with Odunze hobbled by a leg injury, Williams may be looking to the tight ends to help spark the offense.

Colston Loveland could be on the verge of a breakout season after scoring six touchdowns in 11 starts as a rookie last year. That tied for the team lead, and he also led the Bears in receiving yards.

Loveland impressed observers during training camp with his ability to get open and his reliable hands. He's also improved his ability to add yards after the catch.

Check out Shawn Krest's full Bears vs. Panthers predictions.

Browns vs Jaguars: Brenton Strange (30%)

The Jaguars drafted Nate Boerkircher in the second round this past summer, in part, to take some blocking responsibilities off of Brenton Strange. The idea was to get Strange more involved as a pass-catcher and to preserve his stamina by taking him off of some of the tougher blocking assignments he faced in 1-on-1 situations in 2025. 

Cleveland's top coverage linebacker, Carson Schwesinger, missed the majority of training camp with a shoulder injury. Buffalo's tight ends had their way with Cleveland's defense in a joint practice with Schwesinger off of the field. 

Schwesinger is expected to play in Week 1, but he might not be at full strength. Strange could be the primary beneficiary of any lapses in coverage in the middle of the field.

Check out Nick Galaida's full Browns vs. Jaguars predictions.

Bills vs Texans: Dalton Kincaid (22%)

Picking a Bills tight end to score a touchdown is a 50/50 flip, with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid both capable pass catchers. 

The TD markets believe Kincaid is the top TE option in the end zone. He’s coming off a 2025 in which he led all TEs in targets per route run and scored seven total touchdowns over the course of the season.

Houston’s defense doesn’t have many cracks but of the 20 total receiving touchdowns it allowed last year, eight of those strikes came from tight ends. 

Kincaid ranks out better versus man coverage, which the Texans run exclusively, and projections have me taking his 1+ touchdown markets as high as 29%.

Check out Jason Logan's full Bills vs. Texans predictions.

Dolphins vs Raiders: Malik Willis (24%)

Keep in mind, passing touchdowns don’t count in this market for quarterbacks. They either need to run for one, which is obviously far likelier, or catch a TD pass.

That said, first-year Miami QB Malik Willis is going to have a lot on his plate in this offense, and he’s one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL.

In his six career NFL starts, Willis has four rushing touchdowns over three of those games. Also, Achane is great in the open field and in the pass game, but he’s slight and injury-prone, so Willis could get goal-line carries.

Meanwhile, the Raiders allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks last season, and didn't make any major upgrades to their defense this offseason.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Dolphins vs. Raiders predictions.

Packers vs Vikings: Justin Jefferson (38%)

Let’s not get fancy. I’ll trade Justin Jefferson to find the end zone up to 40% in Week 1.

Jefferson was patient with the Vikings’ QB quandary last season and this move to Murray keeps the WR1 happy.
 
Despite poor passing, J.J. still ranked 10th versus zone coverage in 2025 at PFF and faces plenty of zone from new Packers DC Jonathan Gannon. Murray’s mobility and arm strength is excellent against zone and he’ll look to get Jefferson going early.

Projections for Jefferson give between a 40% and 50% chance of a “griddy” on Sunday.

Check out Jason Logan's full Packers vs. Vikings predictions.

Commanders vs Eagles: Saquon Barkley (54%)

In addition to the highlighted case for Barkley to score in Week 1, I also value that Philadelphia didn’t bring in competition for his workload this offseason.

The three-time Pro Bowler garnered a 74% snap share with 33.8% of the touches and 48.3% of the carries inside the red zone for the Eagles last year.

With the role remaining the same and Barkley and the offensive line in front of him fresh for Week 1, I recommend backing the go-to rusher to find the end zone at 56.5%.

Check out Neil Parker's full Commanders vs. Eagles predictions.

Cardinals vs Chargers: Omarion Hampton (58%)

Despite being a former quarterback and having a top-10 NFL quarterback, Harbaugh is a relatively conservative playcaller with a balanced attack.

Chargers RB Omarion Hampton had just five touchdowns last season (four rushing and one receiving), but he only started six games. 

Furthermore, Arizona's defense gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs last season and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns.

Since the Chargers didn't add any pass-catching options this offseason and they used a 2025 first-round pick on Hampton, I'm assuming he gets a larger role this season. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Cardinals vs. Chargers predictions.

Cowboys vs Giants: George Pickens (40%)

We haven’t even flipped the coin on Sunday Night Football and Dallas WR George Pickens is already in a war of words with the Giants secondary.

Pickens, who fired back at CB Greg Newsome’s claim New York has the best cornerback room, scored nine touchdowns in his first season with the Cowboys. That includes a fourth-quarter TD in a wild overtime win versus New York in Week 2.

Pickens is one of the best receivers versus zone coverage (rated 10th at PFF in 2025) and faces a zone-centric scheme from Wilson’s defense tonight. Six of his nine scores came against zone last year. 

Given Week 1 projections, I’d play Pickens 1+ touchdown as high as 45%.

Check out Jason Logan's full Cowboys vs. Giants predictions.

Broncos vs Chiefs: Jaylen Waddle (32%)

I bought this at 3x with a fair price of 2.7x. I want this new deep connection to work, and if the talk out of camp is true, this is a great price.

Nix knows how to avoid sacks, and Waddle's 13.06 aDOT last year would have led the Broncos. Nix just needs to improve his deep ball, which ranked in the bottom third of the league last year.

He still managed to throw for nearly 4,000 yards, and hopefully new playcaller Davis Webb can get more out of his QB.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost three of their four leading snap-getters in the secondary, including CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook, and CB Jaylen Watson.

There's plenty of uncertainty in this new secondary, and the early part of the season is likely the best time to fade it before DC Steve Spagnuolo works his magic.

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