For the second straight season, the NFL kicks off in Brazil.
Tonight's AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers takes place in São Paulo, with KC listed as a slim 3-point favorite.
The star power is off the charts: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Travis Kelce — and after Week 1, rookie running back Omarion Hampton could join the list.
My Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions? Expect Hampton to make the Brazilian fans and bettors go wild, Carnival-style.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Friday, September 5.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Arena Corinthians, with the game airing on YouTube.
Chiefs vs Chargers prediction
Chiefs vs Chargers Best bet: Omarion Hampton Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, looking to add fresh legs to Greg Roman’s run-centric schemes.
While Hampton is behind new running back Najee Harris on the depth chart, Roman has preached about his RBs sharing the load, and the rookie has been running this offense at full speed all summer.
The same can’t be said for Harris. He just got cleared for contact on Monday after missing training camp due to a fireworks mishap that damn near took his eye out. The veteran isn’t in game shape, is behind on the playbook, and could yield carries to Hampton in Week 1.
Hampton’s explosiveness and bulldozing style, which picks up yards after contact, make for a great matchup against this Kansas City Chiefs defense.
The Chiefs’ run stop fell apart in the second half of 2024 and allowed 4.6 yards per carry in the closing eight games of the regular season. Five of those foes rumbled for 100-plus yards, with another finishing at 94 gains on the ground.
Projections for Hampton vary, sitting as low as 45 yards. But most forecasts for Friday’s game come in at 58 yards or higher, with a ceiling spiking to 74 rushing yards. Correctly capping rookie results in Week 1 is tough, but Hampton is set up to succeed.
Chiefs vs Chargers same-game parlay
Hampton’s forecasts are calling for a big night in Brazil, with most projections past this prop total.
Comparisons to Derrick Henry are never a bad thing, especially when shopping the TD anytime markets. Hampton finds paydirt in São Paolo.
The spread is calling for another close contest between these rivals. I give Kansas City the nod, with less faith in L.A.’s defense than most.
Chiefs vs Chargers 3-Leg SGP for Week 1
- Chiefs moneyline (-175)
- Omarion Hampton o44.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Omarion Hampton to score a touchdown (Yes: +155)
Our big-ticket SGP: Hampton causes early headaches
Some models call for 74 rushing yards, so I'm highly optimistic about Hampton.
The Chargers could finish off an extended opening drive with a TD touch for the rookie RB.
Chiefs vs Chargers 2-Leg SGP for Week 1
- Omarion Hampton to score the first touchdown (Yes: +650)
- Omarion Hampton o44.5 rushing yards (-110)
Chiefs vs Chargers game predictions
Chiefs vs Chargers moneyline prediction
We don’t often see the combo of Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh outmatched, but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have had L.A.’s number.
Kansas City is 11-3 SU versus the Chargers since 2018.
Chiefs vs Chargers spread prediction
This point spread has bounced between -3 and -3.5 since opening in the spring. With Week 1 finally here, Kansas City is an expensive field goal favorite.
The Chiefs’ pass rush and sneaky secondary are still championship caliber, making life tough on Herbert & Co.
Chiefs vs Chargers Over/Under prediction
The Chargers could have success running the ball, which means short gains with the clock ticking. The Chiefs are missing pieces of this passing game and lack explosive plays.
I liked the Under at 45.5 and even more now that we’ve seen this climb to 46.5 O/U. I’m wondering how bad the field will be in Brazil after last year’s terrible turf.
Chiefs vs Chargers odds
- Spread: Chiefs -3 | Chargers +3
- Moneyline: Chiefs -170 | Chargers +145
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
More Chiefs vs Chargers predictions for Week 1
- Chiefs vs. Chargers anytime TD scorer picks
- Chiefs vs. Chargers same-game parlay picks
- Chiefs vs. Chargers prop picks
- Travis Kelce player prop picks
- Free NFL picks and predictions
Chiefs vs Chargers trend to know
Since Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, Kansas City is 13-2 SU and ATS when laying a field goal or less in the regular season. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Chargers.
How to watch Chiefs vs Chargers
| Location | Corinthians Arena, São Paulo, Brazil |
| Date | Friday, September 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | YouTube |
Chiefs vs Chargers latest injuries
Najee Harris is off the Chargers’ injury report and is cleared to play tonight against the Chiefs.
The team’s Thursday walkthrough listed him as a full participant, and the Chargers subsequently noted they have no players with a game status designation for Week 1.
NFL.com also reported Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh expects Harris to play, with Harris saying he’s ready after practicing fully mid-week.
The veteran RB had been limited in camp after a July 4 eye injury, but he was cleared for contact earlier this week. How the backfield workload is split is a coaching decision, not a medical limitation at this point.
Chiefs vs Chargers weather
Tonight’s Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup at Corinthians Arena will feature cool, fully cloudy conditions (around 62 degrees) that are ideal for crisp gameplay.
There will be a noticeable temperature decline overnight, but it shouldn’t affect the game’s progression.
Expect fast-paced action, solid footing, and minimal weather-related impact, but don’t underestimate the cooler climate for those playing without proper warm-up or substitution patterns.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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