Reigning European champions Spain are heavy favorites in the World Cup odds against Austria, with bettors only getting -733 on the Spanish advancing in the World Cup bracket.
While I do think Spain are the better team, my Spain vs. Austria predictions think the real value is betting on Austria +1.5, with even a one-goal Spanish win allowing the wager to prevail.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Thursday, July 2.
Spain vs Austria predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win Spain vs Austria: Austria +1.5 (-112)
Spain have the more talented team of the two, but that doesn’t always translate to wins. Austria are undervalued by the market and are worth taking on the spread.
A 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia has flattered Spain, but they toiled against Cape Verde and Uruguay, scoring just one goal in those two games combined.
Lamine Yamal is their best player, but he still doesn’t look at 100% fitness. The fact that they’ve not managed to start both Yamal and Nico Williams, who both came into the tournament with injuries, is concerning.
Alex Baena scored in Spain’s last game, but he isn’t as dynamic as Williams, and doesn’t offer the same man-on-man thread down that left flank. Only two players in the Spain lineup have an xG over 1.0 during this tournament, and they’ve combined for just two goals.
The Austrians might lack quality, but they work hard, and they’re organized. They’re better as the underdog — where they can frustrate opponents — rather than as a favorite, as they lack the creativity to break down a low-block.
Play this to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Spain have had the most possession through three games (69.3%), yet they’ve only won one of three games by multiple goals.Spain vs Austria Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (+101)
We’ve already covered Spain’s lack of quality in front of goal in this tournament, in which they’ve been extremely wasteful. They’ve been really impressive on the other end though, and haven’t conceded yet.
They limit opposition chances by dominating possession, and by having Rodri back to his best and screening the back four to give them extra protection, they are very hard to create chances against.
Austria’s game against Argentina is the blueprint here, with Austria happy to allow the opposition to have the bulk of possession, but pressuring hard and not giving rivals much time on the ball across the entire field. They held Argentina to just 12 shots, and the three on target are evidence of them not allowing many high-value opportunities.
In truth, Austria were unfortunate that one of those two goals was allowed, with a foul in the build up to it. They did well to neutralize Lionel Messi, something they’ll replicate with Yamal, who’ll want to pick up the ball and drive at the defense.
I’d be happy playing this to -120.
Spain vs Austria projected lineup
Spain (4-3-3): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Olmo; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena.
Austria (4-3-2-1): A. Schlager; Posch, Lienhart, Alaba, Mwene; Seiwald, X. Schlager; Schmid, Laimer, Sabitzer; Arnatovic.
Spain vs Austria injuries
Spain: Nico Williams FWR (Out).
Austria: None.
Spain vs Austria weather
Weather shouldn't play much of a factor on a sunny, 72F day with calm winds in Inglewood, CA.
Spain vs Austria odds
 Spain |
 Austria |
|
|---|---|---|
| -300 | Moneyline | +1011 |
| +456 | Draw | +456 |
| Over 2.5 (-113) | Total | Under 2.5 (+108) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Austria
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Thursday, July 2, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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