All eyes will be on the 2025 International Series on Friday, September 5 with the Kansas City Chiefs and star tight end Travis Kelce going up against the Los Angeles Chargers at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Here are my NFL picks for the Travis Kelce odds ahead of this Week 1 AFC West clash tonight.
Travis Kelce prop pick
Travis Kelce best bet: Over 50.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
While the best is definitely in the rearview mirror for the 10-time Pro Bowl tight end, Travis Kelce still projects as a go-to target in the Kansas City Chiefs offense.
I’m anticipating the Chiefs needing to attack through the air, too. The Los Angeles Chargers finished eighth in PFF run defense while allowing the ninth-lowest rush EPA, after all.
Kelce also has a long history of torching the Bolts, with 51 or more receiving yards in seven of his past eight games against Los Angeles. He’s also hit the triple-digit mark four times.
Additionally, while the Chargers were tough on opposing tight ends in terms of yards per target (6.16), they sported middling ranks in catch percentage (72.4%) and receptions (97) to the position.
A quick peek at the schedule also showcases Los Angeles faced the furthest thing from a string of tight ends headed to Canton, OH in 2024.
I also value K.C. quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid attacking on short and intermediate passes more than ever last year and expect the trend to continue. Mahomes threw for a career-low 7.0 yards per attempt, and Kelce has thrived on short and intermediate targets throughout his career.
Travis Kelce same-game parlay
Travis Kelce Over 50.5 receiving yards
Hollywood Brown Over 36.5 receiving yards
Justin Herbert Over 226.5 passing yards
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has aired it out for 236 or more yards in seven of nine games against the Chiefs, and he also threw for a career-high 7.7 yards per attempt last season. Los Angeles upgraded the talent surrounding Herbert heading into 2025, too.
Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown has a go-to role in Week 1, and he also caught nine of 15 targets for 91 yards across his two regular-season games last year. Of course, Brown’s underlying numbers have also been solid with a 12.5 aDOT and 11.9 yards per reception for his career.
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