For the second straight season, the NFL heads to Brazil for opening week. An AFC West war between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers heads to Arena Corinthians in São Paulo.
There is a surplus of superstars on the field Friday night: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Travis Kelce. And after Week 1, you might be able to add rookie running back Omarion Hampton to that list.
My Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions like Hampton to make the Brazilian fans — and bettors — go crazy like it’s Carnival.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Friday, September 5.
Chiefs vs Chargers prediction
Chiefs vs Chargers Best bet: Omarion Hampton Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, looking to add fresh legs to Greg Roman’s run-centric schemes.
While Hampton is behind new running back Najee Harris on the depth chart, Roman has preached about his RBs sharing the load, and the rookie has been running this offense at full speed all summer.
The same can’t be said for Harris. He just got cleared for contact on Monday after missing training camp due to a fireworks mishap that damn near took his eye out. The veteran isn’t in game shape, is behind on the playbook, and could yield carries to Hampton in Week 1.
Hampton’s explosiveness and bulldozing style, which picks up yards after contact, gets a great matchup against this Kansas City Chiefs defense.
The Chiefs’ run stop fell apart in the second half of 2024 and allowed 4.6 yards per carry in the closing eight games of the regular season. Five of those foes rumbled for 100-plus yards, with another finishing at 94 gains on the ground.
Projections for Hampton vary, sitting as low as 45 yards. But most forecasts for Friday’s game come in at 58 yards or higher with a ceiling spiking to 74 rushing yards. Correctly capping rookie results in Week 1 is tough, but Hampton is set up to succeed.
Chiefs vs Chargers same-game parlay
Hampton’s forecasts are calling for a big night in Brazil, with most projections past this prop total.
Comparisons to Derrick Henry are never a bad thing, especially when shopping the TD anytime markets. Hampton finds paydirt in Sao Paolo.
The spread is calling for another close contest between these rivals. I give Kansas City the nod, with less faith in L.A.’s defensive than most.
Our big-ticket SGP: Hampton causes early headaches
Some models call for 74 rushing yards, so I'm highly optimistic about Hampton.
The Chargers could finish off an extended opening drive with a TD touch for the rookie RB.
Chiefs vs Chargers game predictions
Chiefs vs Chargers moneyline prediction
The Chiefs are slight neutral-site favorites in Brazil. We don’t often see the combo of Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh outmatched, but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have had L.A.’s number. Kansas City is 11-3 SU versus the Chargers since 2018.
Chiefs vs Chargers spread prediction
This point spread has bounced between -3 and -3.5 since opening in the spring. With Week 1 finally here, Kansas City is an expensive field goal favorite. The Chiefs’ pass rush and sneaky secondary is still at a championship calibre, making life tough on Herbert & Co.
Chiefs vs Chargers Over/Under prediction
The Chargers could have success running the ball, which means short gains with the clock ticking. The Chiefs are missing pieces of this passing game and lack explosive plays. I liked the Under at 45.5 and even more now that we’ve seen this climb to 46.5 O/U. I’m wondering how bad the field will be in Brazil after last year’s terrible turf.
Chiefs vs Chargers odds
- Spread: Chiefs -3 | Chargers +3
- Moneyline: Chiefs -170 | Chargers +145
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chiefs vs Chargers trend to know
Since Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, the Chiefs are 13-2 SU and ATS when laying a field goal or less in the regular season. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Chargers.
How to watch Chiefs vs Chargers
| Location | Corinthians Arena, São Paulo, Brazil |
| Date | Friday, September 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | YouTube |
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Chiefs vs Chargers weather
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