The winless Los Angeles Chargers head to Lumen Field on Sunday, Oct. 4, for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against the Seattle Seahawks, who are 7.5-point favorites.
My Chargers vs. Seahawks prediction and NFL picks target the 42.5-point total, with Los Angeles' struggling offense offering a compelling buy-low angle that shapes my favorite look for this showdown.
TOP PICK
Chargers vs Seahawks prediction: Over 42.5
Necessity is the mother of invention, and the Los Angeles Chargers desperately need a good offensive performance. This is also a buy-low spot because Chargers QB Justin Herbert and first-year offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel are too accomplished for this offense to remain 31st in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.
Even though the Seattle Seahawks have a top-five defense, Marcus Mariota and the Washington Commanders scored 33 points against them last week. If Washington can score 30-plus, Herbert and the Chargers can get into the 20s, which should be enough for my Over to cash.
Also, 44 and 43 are the most and second-most common key totals in the NFL. The bottom line is that I have Seattle winning 26-21, so the total is playable up to 44.5.
COVERS INTEL: Since hiring head coach Mike Macdonald in 2024, Seattle is 7-2 to the Over as a favorite of -7 or greater, clearing the total by 8.3 points per game. 
Chargers vs Seahawks combo
All three legs work off the same basic premise: Los Angeles' offense can't stay this bad forever. I'm counting on a more aggressive performance from the Chargers, with Herbert using his legs when plays break down and Chargers RB Omarion Hampton benefiting if they consistently reach scoring territory.
Seattle playing well doesn't hurt this angle, either. A Seahawks lead would force Los Angeles to remain aggressive offensively, giving Herbert more opportunities to create outside the pocket. As long as the Chargers contribute their share of the scoring, Hampton should also have a realistic chance to finish one of those possessions in the end zone.
Chargers vs Seahawks combo
- Over 42.5
- Justin Herbert 20+ rushing yards
- Omarion Hampton anytime touchdown
Chargers vs Seahawks touchdown scorer: Omarion Hampton
Shoutout to Kalshi, which is listing Hampton's anytime touchdown prop at one of the best prices in the market. I'd trade it up to 50%.
Hampton is my favorite Chargers skill-position player and was expected to break out once McDaniel, one of the league's best run-game specialists, joined the coaching staff. Hampton is doing his part, posting a 52.0% rushing success rate with two touchdowns this season.
If I'm right about Los Angeles' offense bouncing back Sunday, Hampton should have opportunities to finish drives near the goal line.
Chargers vs Seahawks player prop: Justin Herbert 20+ rushing yards
I'm counting on Justin Herbert playing hero ball Sunday, so I'd play his rushing prop to 22+ yards.
The Chargers rank 28th in ESPN's pass-block win rate, while Seattle ranks second in pass-rush win rate. Herbert could be running for his life this weekend, and he's rushed for at least 21 yards in 13 of his last 20 games.
Kalshi gives Los Angeles just a 26% chance of winning, and that potential game script works, too. Herbert has cleared 21 rushing yards in seven of his nine losses since last season.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 2-8, -6.19 units
- Combos: 2-8, -0.5 units
Chargers vs Seahawks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Chargers +7.5 | Seahawks -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (53%) | Under 42.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Chargers 77% | Seahawks 26%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More Covers NFL trading tools
Chargers vs Seahawks weather
Temperatures should be in the mid-60s in Seattle on Sunday, with no chance of rain and winds around five mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Chargers vs Seahawks trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in Seattle's last eight games against teams with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Seahawks.
How to watch Chargers vs Seahawks
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Chargers vs Seahawks latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
