The Milwaukee Brewers cooled down the hottest team in baseball on Saturday and will aim to take a commanding two-game lead over the San Diego Padres in Sunday afternoon's NLDS Game 2.
Of course, Milwaukee enters as the second-hottest team in the majors, which is why my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks are favoring Milwaukee to win again at home.
TOP PICK
Padres vs Brewers prediction Today: Brewers moneyline
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The moneyline is about as expensive as I’m willing to go. If it climbs much higher, I’d consider the run line, but Milwaukee is still worth backing at this price.
San Diego’s 35-17 record since August 1 looks impressive, but the Padres did much of their damage against losing teams. They went just 14-11 against winning clubs during that stretch, while Milwaukee posted a winning percentage 93 points higher against that same level of competition.
The Milwaukee Brewers also held the edge at the plate and on the mound against winning teams. San Diego posted an OPS 28 points lower while pitching to a 4.43 ERA and 1.359 WHIP, compared to Milwaukee’s 3.48 ERA and 1.160 WHIP.
That tracks with the full-season results: Milwaukee went .600 against winning teams compared to the San Diego Padres' .440 mark. I’ll back the Brewers on the moneyline.
COVERS INTEL: The Brewers hit 20 points better than the Padres against winning opponents and were 4% above league average in that area, while San Diego was 5% below league average. 
Padres vs Brewers combo
After opening the series against the blazing velocity of Jacob Misiorowski, the Padres now face Logan Henderson, who was almost as effective this season but is in the 29th percentile in fastball velocity. San Diego is baseball’s best hitting team against elite velocity and will find Henderson’s control and off-speed stuff a frustrating change of pace after the Miz threw the fastest pitches in postseason history on Saturday.
Michael King has been San Diego’s best starter, but his control has been below league average (40th percentile walk rate) this season. The Brewers have the longest at-bats in MLB, which his a bad matchup for King. Look for Milwaukee to wear out King at the plate and get an early lead in what should be a pitchers’ duel.
Padres vs Brewers combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Under 7.5
- Brewers first-five moneyline
Padres vs Brewers home run prediction: Manny Machado
The Padres were supposed to be the power team, while the Brewers were the pesky on-base team, but the only two homers in the opener both came from Milwaukee. Don’t look for that trend to continue, and Machado is the best bet to set things right for San Diego. He’s 5-for-11 in the postseason with three extra-base hits. He’s hit in the last five games, overall, going 8-for-18 with two homers and two doubles.
After hitting one home run all of August, he’s hit six in September and October, despite playing five fewer games. His slugging percentage is also 134 points higher.
Padres vs Brewers player prop: Logan Henderson Over 6.5 strikeouts
Henderson has a 37.4% whiff rate on his changeup, which opponents are hitting just .172 against, and that’s only his second-best pitch. His four-seamer ranks among the 20 most effective pitches in MLB with a 20.8 whiff rate, a 34.8% strikeout rate and a .152 average against.
He’s struck out at least seven batters in eight of his last 11 starts and is better pitching at home, with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s also boosted his strikeouts per nine by nearly a full strikeout from August to September/October.
- Top picks: 35-42, -0.82 units
Padres vs Brewers weather
The late afternoon start will be under sunny skies, with a temperature coming down from a mild high of 70 to the mid-60s.
Padres vs Brewers odds today
- Moneyline: Padres 45% | Brewers 56%
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (64%) | Brewers -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (46%) | Under 7.5 (57%)
Padres vs Brewers trend
The Brewers are 5-0 in Logan Henderson’s last five home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.
How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Logan Henderson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Padres vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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