It’s a playoff Sunday with a pair of games, and despite the elite pitching matchups, I expect home runs to be the difference today, especially at Dodger Stadium, where the hitting conditions are great and MLB player props look good.
Xander Bogaerts is swinging one of the hottest bats in the postseason, and there is value on both sides in Los Angeles with the high-velo pitchers and great hitting conditions.
These are my favorite home run props for Sunday, Oct. 4.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Probability |
|---|---|
 Xander Bogaerts |
11% |
 Ozzie Albies |
13% |
 Teoscar Hernandez |
17% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 323x |
Home run prediction: Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts is the best +EV homer of the early game, with a fair probability of 12%.
Logan Henderson has the worst HR/9 of all starters today over the last two seasons at 1.24. He also gave up 12 dingers in the second half over 70+ innings.
Bogaerts is raking so far in the postseason, hitting .455 with a homer and a double over three games, including two multi-hit efforts.
There might not be many runs today, but this is a long price for a guy seeing the ball well who has already shown he can go yard in the postseason.
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Home run prediction: Ozzie Albies
Blake Snell might not give up many dingers during the regular season, but his postseason HR/9 is nearly double. He is a firm pitcher, and in the playoffs, with batters amped up and running on adrenaline, they tend to get to fastballs better than in a sleepy July game.
Ozzie Albies has dingers in back-to-back postseason games, and the price is long because of the matchup, but the only scoring in this game might come via the longball. Albies has handled Snell well over a small 12-game sample, collecting four hits with one extra-base hit.
The fair price on this is closer to 5x, and it’s 92 degrees with the wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez
Let’s stay in Los Angeles, where the hitting conditions might not be as priced in as they usually are during the hotter summer months.
Chris Sale is a dog, but he does get hit harder in the postseason, with a 1.52 HR/9 compared to 0.66 over the last two seasons.
Teoscar Hernandez launched a long ball yesterday in the Dodgers’ win and is priced well again today in a righty-vs.-lefty matchup against a pitcher he has already taken deep over a decent 24-AB sample. Hernandez has seen plenty of Sale, and this fair price is closer to 19%.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
- HR picks: 41-158, -16.2 units
Best home run combo for October 4
| Xander Bogaerts |
Trade Now 323x |
| Ozzie Albies |
|
| Teoscar Hernandez |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
