Chiefs vs Raiders Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: Week 4

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst 10+ years betting experience
Updated: Oct 4, 2026 , 12:30 PM ET • 4 min read

Two of the best tight ends in football are amongst the anytime touchdown picks for this AFC West clash

Travis Kelce and Kenneth Walker of the Kansas City Chiefs NFL
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III (9) celebrates with tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring a touchdown against the Denver Broncos during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Ima

Somebody is losing their winning streak at Allegiant Stadium this week when the Las Vegas Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Tight ends and running backs make up my best Chiefs vs. Raiders anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday's game. Before kickoff, make sure you've read our NFL picks from across the league.

Best Chiefs vs Raiders anytime touchdown picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
 Chiefs Kenneth Walker III 59%
 Raiders Brock Bowers 34%
 Chiefs First TD: Travis Kelce 10%
 Raiders Long shot: Emmett Johnson 16%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Chiefs touchdown pick: Kenneth Walker

Kalshi probability: 59%

Kenneth Walker might just be the chalkiest of chalk anytime touchdown picks, but it's hard to look anywhere else but the former Seahawk to score in this game. 

There was a lot of preseason buzz around Walker’s chances in this offense, and he's delivered. He’s scored four touchdowns, split equally between rushes and receptions, and has had at least 20 touches per game.

With an average of 25.3 touches per game and 147.3 rushing and receiving yards per game, Walker is a monster. 

The Raiders have looked fairly good against the run, but Walker is another step above what they’ve faced, and he has to be considered the most likely player to score here, especially with 15 carries and five targets in the red zone already this year.

Raiders touchdown pick: Brock Bowers

Kalshi probability: 34%

Death, taxes, and Brock Bowers being unstoppable. After missing the first two weeks of the season, Bowers returned in the win over the Saints, with concerns about his workload.

Nobody needed to worry, and Bowers' 43% target share was the second-highest in the entire NFL.

He’s basically a wide receiver at this point, with just eight of 33 routes coming from TE alignments, and every target coming when he's used out wide or as the slot receiver.

He had elite volume with 14 targets in that return game, but crucially, his four red zone targets now tie him for the most this season for the Raiders, despite playing just once. 

First touchdown scorer pick: Travis Kelce

Kalshi probability: 10%

If you’re looking for more value on your first touchdown scorer play, Travis Kelce has to be your guy. The Raiders are 3-0 after a great start to the year, but their three opponents have combined for just one win all season. 

The Raiders’ weakness against tight ends is also an issue, as they've already allowed five touchdowns to the position this year.

Meanwhile, Kelce is quietly having a bounce-back season. He leads the Chiefs in target share with 19.8% this season, remains Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target, and has been hugely efficient with 16.5 yards per catch, with touchdowns in two straight games.

Long-shot touchdown pick: Emmett Johnson

Kalshi probability: 16%

He hasn't found the end zone for his first NFL touchdown yet, but it's surely a matter of time for Emmett Johnson.

Walker is the clear RB1 for the foreseeable future, but the team is finding ways to engineer touches for their backup, and he’s looked electric at times, displaying great tackle-breaking ability when he can get into the open field. 

The fifth-round pick out of Nebraska passes the eye test and arguably looks like one of the league's better backups.

He’s always a touchdown threat given Walker’s injury history, but Johnson can be a problem in his own right too, with great agility, strength, and burst.

Chiefs vs Raiders touchdown combo

Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown

Brock Bowers anytime touchdown

Opportunity is key for Anytime Touchdowns, and nobody gets more volume on either team than Walker and Bowers, both integral to their teams in the red zone.

Sam Farley's 2026 Transparency Record
  • TD picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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