The Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries each won their first-round series with thrilling Game 3 victories, and I analyzie their semifinal matchup with my Aces vs. Valkyries prediction.
My WNBA picks expect A’ja Wilson to continue her domination of the Valkyries as she leads the visiting team to a triumph. I'm also leaning on Jackie Young.
Tip-off is at 4 p.m. ET from Chase Center on Sunday, Oct. 4.
TOP PICK
Aces vs Valkyries prediction: A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 points
A’ja Wilson put up at least 25 points in 24 of 41 regular-season games and two of three playoff matchups for the Las Vegas Aces. She averaged 27.6 ppg and went off for 25+ in 14 of 21 regular-season road matchups. I would expect this line to trade at 65%, making it a value option at 53%.
Wilson didn't struggle with the Golden State Valkyries' notoriously stingy defense, as she averaged 25 ppg against it, good for the most in the W. She finished with 25+ in two of three matchups.
Among players with at least 20 playoff appearances, Wilson ranks second in scoring average (21.8). Her 18 playoff games with 25+ points are behind only Diana Taurasi’s 19.
The Valkyries’ defense can be exploited in the mid-range, where Wilson excels. Fresh off a 36-point outing in a closeout performance, I expect Wilson to shine against the Valkyries once again.
COVERS INTEL: Wilson averaged the most made shots from 10-to-14 feet (2.3), and the most made shots from 5-to-14 feet (4.0) against the Valkyries this season. Wilson shot 55.6% from five-to-nine feet and 58.3% from 10-14 feet against Golden State, despite the Valkyries allowing opponents to shoot sub-40% from both ranges.
Aces vs Valkyries combo
This prop is set at a profitable 45%, but I’ll trade it up to 55% given Wilson's success against the Valkyries. Wilson averaged the most ppg against Golden State, and Jackie Young was right behind her at 23.7 ppg. Young also averaged the most made triples against the V’s at 4.7 per tilt. She put up 20+ points in 23 of 43 regular-season games, including all three matchups with Golden State.
The Aces swept the regular-season series by an average of 11.3 points per game, including a 10-point win at Chase Center. The Valkyries rely on a barrage of triples and elite defense, but Golden State has no answer for the best player in the world and a strong supporting cast. The Aces went 16-6 straight up on the road and 10-7 against the spread as the road favorite. I’ll trade this one up to -4.5
Aces vs Valkyries combo
- A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 points
- Jackie Young Over 19.5 points
- Aces -1.5
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Aces vs Valkyries player prop: A'Ja Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds
Wilson averaged 12.7 rebounds per game against the Valkyries, the second-highest mark in the W behind only Shakira Austin’s 14. In three matchups with the V’s, Wilson posted rebound totals of nine, 14, and 15.
She's grabbed 10+ rebounds in four of her last five games dating back to the regular season, averaging 11 boards in that span. Golden State made the fewest field goals in the W during the regular season (28.7), and it ranked third in missed shots at 39.3.
Rebounding opportunities will be available for Wilson against an undersized Valkyries frontcourt whose leading rebounder averaged just 5.8 per game
- Top picks: 38-44, -10.90 units
- Combos: 9-73, -26.03 units
Aces vs Valkyries odds
- Spread: Aces -1.5 | Valkyries +1.5
- Moneyline: Aces 53% | Valkyries 49%
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Aces vs Valkyries trend
The Aces have won five straight games against the Valkyries, all by at least two points. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Valkyries
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Aces vs Valkyries latest injuries
Aces: Dana Evans (Out), Stephanie Talbot (Questionable)
Valkyries: None
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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