With Bucky Irving still sidelined, White should remain heavily involved in Week 11, and he'll get a great matchup with a Bills defense allowing the third-most rushing yards to opponents.
Allen should be fired up at home after a bad loss to Miami last week, and he'll face a Buccaneers defense allowing the seventh-most passing yards to opponents.
Rarely do we see a quarterback of Allen’s calibre paying plus-money on the Over for his touchdown pass prop. But there are a couple factors manipulating that market heading into this battle with the Buccaneers. Bad weather and injuries to two top RZ targets are moving this prop market. The 2025 Bills aren’t reliant on a handful of players to step up every Sunday. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s philosophy has been “everybody eats” and we’ve seen that from Buffalo throughout the schedule. And, as for the wind goes, have you seen Allen’s arm? He lit up Todd Bowles' unit for two touchdowns passes, a rushing touchdown, and 324 yards (31 for 40 passing) in a Thursday night win. Player projections for Week 11 lean toward two TD connections for the Buffalo quarterback. His models range from 1.5 to 1.96 touchdown passes and Allen has posted two or more TD throws in six of nine outings.
The Bills’ win over the Chiefs feels like a long time ago, but they’re in a good spot to put up points at home against a Bucs defense allowing 27.4 points per game to teams with winning records over five games. Dalton Kincaid is considered week-to-week after exiting Week 10 and didn’t practice Wednesday, so I’m looking elsewhere at tight end — and it’s not Dawson Knox. Jackson Hawes found the end zone last week at +750 and continues to be a red-zone threat, though his score came from 26 yards out. If Kincaid is out, I’d play this down to +450.
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.3% red zone pass rate.. With an impressive 13.5% Red Zone Target% (91st percentile) this year, Rachaad White places among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.. Rachaad White has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among running backs, hauling in an outstanding 93.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.
Khalil Shakir has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.6% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, completing a fantastic 80.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-best rate in the league.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by the projections to run just 62.1 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.8 per game) this year.. Baker Mayfield has totaled a lowly 0.19 interceptions per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. At the moment, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.. With an extraordinary 48.5% Route Participation% (80th percentile) this year, Rachaad White ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in football.. The projections expect Rachaad White to notch 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. At the moment, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.. The Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. At the moment, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.. In this game, Cade Otton is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.8 targets.. Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game in this week's game (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.7% in games he has played).. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
The projections expect Dawson Knox to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this week (13.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.6% in games he has played).. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.. Dawson Knox grades out as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a fantastic 9.46 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 86th percentile.
The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. Baker Mayfield's 7.74 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season reflects a significant boost in his running proficiency over last season's 6.54 rate.. The Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect James Cook to earn 19.9 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. James Cook has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (94.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
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