NYJ 13.5 o42.5
NE -13.5 u42.5
WAS 3.0 o47.0
MIA -3.0 u47.0
LAC -3.0 o44.5
JAC 3.0 u44.5
TB 5.5 o47.0
BUF -5.5 u47.0
CHI 3.0 o48.0
MIN -3.0 u48.0
GB -7.5 o42.5
NYG 7.5 u42.5
HOU -6.5 o38.0
TEN 6.5 u38.0
CAR 3.5 o42.5
ATL -3.5 u42.5
CIN 5.5 o49.0
PIT -5.5 u49.0
SF -3.0 o48.0
ARI 3.0 u48.0
SEA 3.0 o48.5
LA -3.0 u48.5
KC -4.0 o45.0
DEN 4.0 u45.0
BAL -8.5 o39.0
CLE 8.5 u39.0
DET 2.5 o47.5
PHI -2.5 u47.5
DAL -3.5 o50.0
LV 3.5 u50.0
Tampa Bay 1st NFC South6-3
Buffalo 2nd AFC East6-3

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo Picks & Props

Picks |Consensus |Props |Trends |Top User Picks

TB vs BUF Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Touchdowns
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+116)
Best Odds
o1.5 +116 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o1.5  +106
These are quick bet odds
 -
o1.5  +116
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  +105
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  +107
These are quick bet odds

Rarely do we see a quarterback of Allen’s calibre paying plus-money on the Over for his touchdown pass prop. But there are a couple factors manipulating that market heading into this battle with the Buccaneers. Bad weather and injuries to two top RZ targets are moving this prop market. The 2025 Bills aren’t reliant on a handful of players to step up every Sunday. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s philosophy has been “everybody eats” and we’ve seen that from Buffalo throughout the schedule. And, as for the wind goes, have you seen Allen’s arm? He lit up Todd Bowles' unit for two touchdowns passes, a rushing touchdown, and 324 yards (31 for 40 passing) in a Thursday night win. Player projections for Week 11 lean toward two TD connections for the Buffalo quarterback. His models range from 1.5 to 1.96 touchdown passes and Allen has posted two or more TD throws in six of nine outings.

Read Full Analysis
Score a Touchdown
Jackson Hawes logo Jackson Hawes Score a Touchdown (Yes: +700)
Best Odds
 +550 DraftKings
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +550
 +425
 +500
 -
 +500

The Bills’ win over the Chiefs feels like a long time ago, but they’re in a good spot to put up points at home against a Bucs defense allowing 27.4 points per game to teams with winning records over five games. Dalton Kincaid is considered week-to-week after exiting Week 10 and didn’t practice Wednesday, so I’m looking elsewhere at tight end — and it’s not Dawson Knox. Jackson Hawes found the end zone last week at +750 and continues to be a red-zone threat, though his score came from 26 yards out. If Kincaid is out, I’d play this down to +450.

Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u221.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 210.63 (Under)
Best Odds
u221.5 -112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 33 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
u221.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u217.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u219.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u219.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The model projects Josh Allen to throw 31.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.. This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-best rate in the league.
-112 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Rachaad White logo
Rachaad White o8.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 22.69 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o8.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. With an extraordinary 48.5% Route Participation% (80th percentile) this year, Rachaad White ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in football.. The projections expect Rachaad White to notch 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Khalil Shakir logo
Khalil Shakir o45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 54.46 (Over)
Best Odds
o45.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o45.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
The predictive model expects Khalil Shakir to notch 7.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.. Khalil Shakir has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 21.7% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.. With a terrific 47.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (76th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir stands as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, completing a fantastic 80.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Emeka Egbuka logo
Emeka Egbuka o62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 69.59 (Over)
Best Odds
o62.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o62.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.. The Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Rachaad White logo
Rachaad White o37.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 45.65 (Over)
Best Odds
o37.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o37.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
Among all RBs, Rachaad White ranks in the 78th percentile for carries this year, comprising 40.1% of the workload in his team's ground game.. The Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o79.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 87.69 (Over)
Best Odds
o79.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o80.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o81.5  -114
o79.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o80.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect James Cook to earn 19.1 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs.. After taking on 50.9% of his offense's carries last season, James Cook has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, currently taking on 66.8%.. James Cook has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (94.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o32.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 37.25 (Over)
Best Odds
o32.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o33.5  -115
 -
o33.5  -114
o32.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o32.5  -118
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. In this game, Josh Allen is expected by our trusted projection set to earn the 4th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 7.2. . Accounting for 20.5% of his team's carries this year (86th percentile when it comes to QBs), Josh Allen's mobility makes him a serious threat on the ground.. Josh Allen has averaged 32.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to QBs (92nd percentile).
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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TB vs BUF Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Total

66% picking Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Over

66%
34%

Total PicksTB 269, BUF 141

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109

TB vs BUF Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.48
Best Odds
Yes
-120
fanduel
fanduel
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.48
Best Odds
Projection Rating

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year. Josh Allen's 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a remarkable gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.7% mark.

Josh Allen

QB • BUF vs. TB
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.48
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.48

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year. Josh Allen's 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a remarkable gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.7% mark.
Josh Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Tampa Bay
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+1200
bet365
bet365
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

Dalton Kincaid
D. Kincaid
tight end TE • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.50
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+230
bet365
bet365
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.50
Best Odds

Joshua Palmer
J. Palmer
wide receiver WR • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+340
caesars
caesars
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

TB vs BUF Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'reekosuave' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+5.5)

reekosuave is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +4180 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'reekosuave' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Under (49.0)

reekosuave is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +4180 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'pgasol5032' is picking Buffalo to cover (-6.0)

pgasol5032 is #3 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'pgasol5032' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Under (50.5)

pgasol5032 is #3 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'charro23' is picking Buffalo to cover (-6.0)

charro23 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4520 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'charro23' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Over (50.5)

charro23 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4520 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'johnnyjbd24' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+5.5)

johnnyjbd24 is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +4400 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'johnnyjbd24' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Over (47.5)

johnnyjbd24 is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +4400 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'midsro49' is picking Buffalo to cover (-6.0)

midsro49 is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'midsro49' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Under (50.5)

midsro49 is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'beloborg151' is picking Buffalo to cover (-6.0)

beloborg151 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'beloborg151' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Under (50.5)

beloborg151 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'bluorch158' is picking Buffalo to cover (-6.0)

bluorch158 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4120 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'bluorch158' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Under (50.5)

bluorch158 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4120 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'greyford' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+6.0)

greyford is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'greyford' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Over (50.5)

greyford is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109
Spread

'BigG39' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+5.5)

BigG39 is #9 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Spread
TB
BUF
Spread
+5.5 +105
-4.5 -133
Total

'BigG39' picks Tampa Bay vs Buffalo to go Over (48.5)

BigG39 is #9 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
46.5 -115
47.5 -109

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