GB 3.0 o48.0
DET -3.0 u48.0
KC -3.5 o53.0
DAL 3.5 u53.0
CIN 7.5 o51.5
BAL -7.5 u51.5
CHI 7.5 o44.0
PHI -7.5 u44.0
JAC -6.0 o42.0
TEN 6.0 u42.0
ATL -2.5 o39.5
NYJ 2.5 u39.5
LA -10.5 o45.0
CAR 10.5 u45.0
NO 6.0 o42.0
MIA -6.0 u42.0
ARI 3.0 o44.0
TB -3.0 u44.0
SF -4.5 o36.5
CLE 4.5 u36.5
HOU 4.5 o45.0
IND -4.5 u45.0
MIN 13.0 o41.0
SEA -13.0 u41.0
BUF -3.5 o46.0
PIT 3.5 u46.0
LV 10.0 o41.0
LAC -10.0 u41.0
DEN -6.5 o42.5
WAS 6.5 u42.5
NYG 7.5 o46.5
NE -7.5 u46.5
Buffalo 2nd AFC East7-4
Pittsburgh 2nd AFC North6-5

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

Picks |Consensus |Props |Trends |Top User Picks

BUF vs PIT Picks

NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o26.5 -115 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o26.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
o28.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o28.5  -115
These are quick bet odds

Allen has used his legs to take a chunk out of blitz-happy opponents more than a few times this season. He’s played eight games against teams in the Top 10 in blitz rate, topping 30 yards rushing in six of those outings and averaging more than 36 yards rushing per contest.

Read Full Analysis
Score a Touchdown
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +140)
Projection 0.57 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +140 FanDuel
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 +135
 +115
 +140
 -
 +135
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
+140 at FanDuel
Passing Completions
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o19.5 Passing Completions (-104)
Projection 21.59 (Over)
Best Odds
o19.5 +100 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o19.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
 -
o19.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
o20.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o19.5  -118
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Aaron Rodgers's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.8% to 66.8%.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
+100 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o30.5 Passing Attempts (-106)
Projection 33.56 (Over)
Best Odds
o30.5 -106 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
o30.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
 -
o30.5  -106
These are quick bet odds
o31.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -125
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
-106 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o201.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 232 (Over)
Best Odds
o201.5 -112 Caesars
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o201.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o201.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o202.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o201.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Aaron Rodgers's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.8% to 66.8%.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
-112 at Caesars
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u236.5 Passing Yards (-122)
Projection 221.79 (Under)
Best Odds
u238.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
u234.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u238.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u235.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u236.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-102)
Projection 0.4 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 -102 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u0.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
 -
u0.5  -102
u0.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -108
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Pittsburgh Steelers have intercepted 0.86 passes per game this year, ranking as the 8th-best defense in football by this statistic.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
-102 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o7.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 16.57 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o7.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 78th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. With an impressive 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in the NFL.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith logo
Jonnu Smith o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 26.69 (Over)
Best Odds
o18.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o18.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Bills linebackers project as the 9th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Khalil Shakir logo
Khalil Shakir o47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 56.98 (Over)
Best Odds
o47.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o47.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to garner 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.. With a remarkable 21.3% Target% (78th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 48.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf logo
DK Metcalf o50.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 59.17 (Over)
Best Odds
o50.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o50.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.. In this week's game, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.6 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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BUF vs PIT Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

65% picking Buffalo

65%
35%

Total Picks BUF 372, PIT 202

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

61% picking Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over

61%
39%

Total PicksBUF 194, PIT 126

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110

BUF vs PIT Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating
Jaylen Warren
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.57
Best Odds
Yes
+140
fanduel
fanduel
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.57
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.

Jaylen Warren logo

Jaylen Warren

RB • PIT vs. BUF
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.57
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.57

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
James Cook III
J. Cook III
running back RB • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.64
Best Odds
Yes
-105
bet365
bet365
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.64
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. When talking about air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards). As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. James Cook's 96.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% figure. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89%) to RBs this year (89.0%).

James Cook III logo

James Cook III

RB • BUF @ PIT
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.64
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.64

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. When talking about air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards). As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. James Cook's 96.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% figure. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89%) to RBs this year (89.0%).
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Yes
+112
caesars
caesars
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Josh Allen's 69.9% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a material progression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.7% mark. This year, the shaky Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up a whopping 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in football. The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.73 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

Josh Allen logo

Josh Allen

QB • BUF @ PIT
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.43
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.43

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Josh Allen's 69.9% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a material progression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.7% mark. This year, the shaky Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up a whopping 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in football. The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.73 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
Dalton Kincaid
D. Kincaid
tight end TE • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.50
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+230
bet365
bet365
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.50
Best Odds

Scotty Miller
S. Miller
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+1200
caesars
caesars
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

BUF vs PIT Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
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'stom5900' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +8700 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'stom5900' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +8700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
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'saintsnola15' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

saintsnola15 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4970 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'saintsnola15' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

saintsnola15 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4970 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
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'bigsmoke21169' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
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'charro23' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

charro23 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5470 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

charro23 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5470 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
Total

'bigsmoke21169' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
Total

'Kansas2014' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
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'gokou31' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

gokou31 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
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'Kansas2014' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5750 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
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'livelywee55' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

livelywee55 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5400 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
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'RAZORAZE283' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'RAZORAZE283' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
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'BetoCM' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

BetoCM is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'BetoCM' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

BetoCM is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
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'midsro49' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+4.5)

midsro49 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'midsro49' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

midsro49 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
Total

'bugsy1958' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

bugsy1958 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
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'bugsy1958' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

bugsy1958 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
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'bluorch158' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

bluorch158 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4020 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118
Total

'bluorch158' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

bluorch158 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4020 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
Total

'Bazooks813973' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

Bazooks813973 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5130 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -106
46 -110
Spread

'Bazooks813973' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Bazooks813973 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5130 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -159
+3.5 -118

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