Without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow standing in the way, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills seem like they have a clearer path to Super Bowl LX.
Let’s not discount Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, however.
Jacksonville won 13 games and hasn’t lost since November 9, earning the No. 3 seed in the AFC and a home game for this Wild Card Round matchup on Sunday.
My early Bills vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks size up the opening odds and early market moves for January 11 and tell you why Buffalo can win a shootout in Jacksonville.
Bills vs Jaguars predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Bills vs Jaguars spread pick: Bills -1.5
The look-ahead odds listed the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 1.5-point home underdog for this pairing before the events of Week 18 and the official opening line followed suit, sticking the home team as a 1.5-point pup.
However, we’re seeing movement toward the Jaguars with some shops as short as pick’em for this AFC Wild Card Round showdown.
Winning 13 games is no easy feat in the NFL, but I do discount Jacksonville’s recent run due to a lack of competition. The Jaguars took down division rivals Tennessee and Indianapolis twice along with wins over Arizona and the N.Y. Jets.
Yes, that same team defeated Denver and the L.A. Chargers in the second half of the schedule, but the Buffalo Bills seem much more battle-tested and are playing with a postseason mentality at the perfect time.
Josh Allen is the ultimate X-factor and the most dangerous QB the Jags have faced all season. This Buffalo offensive line is also elite and can win the war in the trenches against a solid Jacksonville defense.
I’m leaning toward Buffalo right now and waiting to see if this spread continues to shrink across the board, offering the Bills as possible underdogs later in the week.
Early Bills vs Jaguars total pick: Over 51.5
The biggest blemish for Buffalo is the defense. This stop unit has been inconsistent all season, especially when it comes to stuffing the run. That said, the Jaguars’ ground game lost steam in the back half of the schedule while the pass attack peaked.
Lawrence has made this the top offense in EPA per play since Week 12 and sits above Allen in many QB metrics in that span while throwing for 18 touchdowns in the last seven games.
Defensively, Jacksonville’s strength is the run stop. It ranks No. 4 in Run Defense DVOA and No. 3 in opponent success rate per handoff. That could bottle up RB James Cook and force both offenses to take to the air this weekend.
While the Bills aren’t at home in the Wild Card Round, this trip to Duval County offers a rare warm weather outing. The extended forecast for Sunday afternoon looks clear, which will boost production after Buffalo was locked in cold outdoor venues since Week 13. The Bills have also gone 8-3-1 Over/Under in postseason games since 2020.
This Over/Under total opened at 50.5 points and took action on the Over, with a move to 51.5. We’re seeing some buyback on the other side of the key number of 51, so it could come back down. This Wild Card contest could live up to that tall total.
Bills vs Jaguars odds
- Bills vs. Jaguars spread: Jaguars +1.5
- Bills vs. Jaguars moneyline: Bills -112, Jaguars -104
- Bills vs. Jaguars Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Bills vs Jaguars
- Bills vs. Jaguars matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Jacksonville, FL
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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