Quarterback Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears have made a habit of proving people wrong weekly, and they'll look to continue that trend against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football.
My Bears vs. 49ers predictions are especially bullish on Williams' chances at exploiting San Francisco's secondary.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this prime-time clash on Sunday, December 28.
Bears vs 49ers prediction
Bears vs 49ers best bet: Caleb Williams Over 224.5 passing yards (-114)
Caleb Williams is starting to show why the Chicago Bears selected him with the first overall pick last year. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for more than 240 yards in back-to-back games, and his receiving corps gets a boost on Sunday night with the return of Luther Burden III.
Williams struggles under pressure, completing just 38.7% of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt and earning a PFF passing grade of 49.8. From a clean pocket, however, he shines — completing 66.2% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt with a passing grade of 80.0.
He faces a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in pressure rate (15.6%) and dead last in sacks (18). The Niners are 23rd in defensive dropback success rate and just allowed 44-year-old Philip Rivers to throw for 277 yards in their previous game.
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Bears vs 49ers SNF same-game parlay
The Bears excel at forcing turnovers, but opposing teams can still rack up passing yards against them. They rank 28th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1) and 30th in adjusted yards per target allowed (8.49).
49ers QB Brock Purdy has thrown for 295 yards in each of the last two weeks and averages an impressive 8.14 adjusted yards per target.
Both teams are red-hot, but the Bears boast the stronger defense and are catching three points. Since I’m backing Williams to find success through the air, let’s also take Chicago on the spread in this SGP.
Bears vs 49ers SGP
- Caleb Williams Over 224.5 passing yards
- Brock Purdy Over 254.5 passing yards
- Bears +3
Our big-ticket SGP: Fading CMC
I’m expecting Purdy to eclipse his passing yards total, as he should have opportunities to attack downfield. However, I don’t see him targeting Christian McCaffrey much against a defense that allows the third-fewest receiving yards per game (24.2) to running backs.
C-Mac hasn’t surpassed 30 receiving yards in his last three games and is averaging just 4.3 targets per contest over that span.
Bears vs 49ers SGP
- Caleb Williams Over 224.5 passing yards
- Brock Purdy Over 254.5 passing yards
- Bears +3
- Christian McCaffrey Under 42.5 receiving yards
Bears vs 49ers odds
- Spread: Bears +3 (-102) | 49ers -3 (-120)
- Moneyline: Bears +144 | 49ers -172
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Bears vs 49ers betting trend to know
The Over has gone 14-6 in San Francisco's last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. 49ers.
How to watch Bears vs 49ers
| Location | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date | Sunday, December 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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