Alabama can trounce Sam Houston without lighting up the scoreboard tonight.
That's the wrinkle in my Sam Houston vs. Alabama prediction for Tuesday, Nov. 3, when the 26.5-point favorite hosts the Bearkats at 7:30 p.m. ET in Coleman Coliseum. A depleted Tide backcourt makes the Under 171.5 especially tempting.
These college basketball picks may ultimately like Alabama, but that spread is too high given how much I favor the Under.
Who will win Sam Houston vs Alabama: Sam Houston +26.5
I lean toward the Sam Houston Bearkats +26.5, down to +24.5 because the Under is my favorite play in this game, and it's hard for the Under to get home when a favorite this high covers.
That said, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) as 25-point favorites or greater in non-conference games.
Meanwhile, Sam Houston is 19-9 ATS in non-conference games during head coach Chris Mudge's tenure (est. 2024). This includes covers as a 31.5-point road underdog at Texas Tech and a 12.5-point road underdog in Utah last season.
The Bearkats also return two starting guards, while Alabama will be missing its starting point guard tonight.
Give me the team with more backcourt continuity and a huge cushion.
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TOP PICK
Sam Houston vs Alabama Over/Under pick: Under 171.5
I’m fading the market, which has steamed this total up from 169.5, and investing in the Under 171.5, down to 168.5.
Since head coach Nate Oats took over, Alabama is 8-11 Over/Under as a 20-plus-point favorite in non-conference games and 2-5 O/U when laying 25+. That makes sense to me: Blowouts are where Overs go to die.
The Crimson Tide will also be without two of their three primary ball-handlers, including starting PG Aden Holloway. With so much turnover, there should be stretches where inexperienced guards are asked to run Oats’ system.
Alabama can still win comfortably without playing at its usual offensive ceiling.
COVERS INTEL: The Bearkats have to replace 78.5% of their scoring from last season, returning only 17.7 points per game from a team that averaged 82.3. That’s a lot of new offensive responsibility to sort out in a season opener against 'Bama.Sam Houston vs Alabama combo
I’m only risking 0.25u on these combos, and I’m looking for Sam Houston to keep Alabama from ever putting its foot on the gas.
The Bearkats don’t need to threaten the upset. They just need enough resistance to make the Crimson Tide work through possessions instead of turning this into a layup line and transition dunk contest.
That kind of game gives us both things we want: Sam Houston hanging around inside a massive number while Alabama wins with defense, size, and talent rather than a ridiculous offensive explosion.
If the Tide get comfortable playing in the halfcourt and the Bearkats avoid an avalanche of live-ball turnovers, I like the chances of this staying ugly enough for both angles to cash.
Sam Houston vs Alabama combo
- Bearkats +26.5
- Under 171.5
- Top picks: 2-0, +1.76 units
- Combos: 1-1, -0.25 units
Sam Houston vs Alabama odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Sam Houston +26.5 | Alabama -26.5
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 | Under 171.5
- Moneyline: Sam Houston 2% | Alabama 99%
For the full slate of college basketball matchups, check out our college basketball odds board!
Sam Houston vs Alabama trend
The Crimson Tide are 4-1 to the Under in home games where the total closes between 170-174. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Sam Houston vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 |
| Tip off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SECN+ |
Sam Houston vs Alabama latest injuries
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