Sitting with a 76% implied win probability, USC enters tonight's clash against Washington as a heavy favorite.
My Washington vs. USC prediction thinks this 9.5-point spread inflates the Trojans, making Washington +9.5 the best value play for tonight's college football picks with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
TOP PICK
Who will win Washington vs USC today? Pick: Washington +9.5
Play Washington down to +7.5.
USC is 12-8 in Big Ten play since the start of the 2024 season. The market is respecting the Trojans too much, as they haven't won consistently under Lincoln Riley and aren't the juggernaut they're expected to be.
The defense (108th in EPA per play) still isn't fixed, and Demond Williams Jr. nearly always piles up production when playing down in competition.
Washington will have more offensive success than anticipated, and its defense (10th in EPA per play) is good enough to provide resistance against Jayden Maiava and an injured receiving corps.
COVERS INTEL: Washington has been stout up front (third in stuff rate, ninth in EPA per rush), and USC hasn't gotten its ground game going (79th in EPA per rush). That might make the Trojans more one-dimensional offensively than is ideal, especially with WR1 Trent Mosley injured.
Washington vs USC Over/Under pick: Under 57.5
Washington might have enough offensive success to keep things close, but it's still difficult to predict a crooked number given the poor play up front (102nd in line yards, 118th in stuff rate).
A depleted running back room due to multiple injuries has led the Huskies to throw the ball at a top-10 rate (57.1%), which plays into USC's top-10 pass rush led by freshman phenom Luke Wafle (nine hurries).
The Huskies have been tremendous on defense, although the natural counter is that they've played poor competition.
Ryan Walters has proven at multiple stops that he's a top defensive coordinator, so I'm buying the underlying metrics, with ends Jacob Lane and Isaiah Ward, and safety Alex McLaughlin leading the charge.
The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these programs, so here's banking on another.
Washington vs USC combo
Criticize the opposition all you want, but Washington's defense has been nasty. The Huskies allow 4.6 yards per play and are a well-coordinated unit with a penchant for stopping the run (3.2 yards per rush allowed).
That gives them a leg up against USC's poor defense, which is allowing 6.1 yards per play despite facing a schedule ranked outside the top 60 per ESPN's FPI.
Washington vs USC combo
- Washington +9.5
- First quarter Under 13.5 points
- Under 57.5
Washington vs USC prop: First quarter Under 13.5 points
Both teams typically get off to slow starts. Washington has hit the first-quarter Under in 10 of its last 13 games, while USC has done so in seven of its last eight.
Both squads are coming off tough defeats, so it's natural they would play "tight" in what feels like a must-win spot. Washington fell 24-27 at home to Minnesota, while Oregon handled USC with ease (27-41) with its backup quarterback.
- Top picks: 5-6, -1.69 units
- Combos: 4-7, +8.09 units
Washington vs USC market trends
Here is how trusted Kalshi traders are dealing on today's Washington vs. USC matchup. The trading volume will pick up through the day, with the smart money coming in closest to kickoff. The early market lean is to Lincoln Riley and USC.
Washington vs USC odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Washington +9.5 | USC -9.5
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (57%) | Under 57.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Washington 24% | USC 76%
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Washington vs USC weather
It'll be hot and a little windy, which could slightly hurt both offenses.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Washington vs USC trend to know
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with USC. Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs. USC.
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How to watch Washington vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Washington vs USC latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
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